Us politics

Even so soon after President Obama's reelection, speculation over who might replace him in January 2017 is already in full swing. Here are the early favourites, as judged by Ladbrokes: Republicans: Paul Ryan: Nominee 5/1, President 12/1 The Congressman from Wisconsin has gained national prominence as chair of the House Budget Committee and more recently as Mitt Romney's running mate, setting him up as the early favourite to be the GOP's next nominee. But if he were to be successful in the primaries, it'd be only the second time ever a losing Vice Presidential candidate had won the nomination four years later. Of the 16 losing VP nominees since the Second World War, eight ran for their party's nomination in the next election, and only one — Walter Mondale — secured it.

With the elections over and Barack Obama returned to the White House for four more years, the attention of US politicians has turned to the so-called ‘fiscal cliff’ — a collection of tax hikes and spending cuts that threaten to send the country back into recession. But what exactly is going on, and why? The Bush tax cuts George W Bush passed two major tax cut packages during the first term of his Presidency: the Economic Growth and Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 and the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2003. Together, they lowered federal tax rates on income (for example, the top rate fell from 39.6 to 35 per cent, and the bottom rate from 15 to 10 per cent), capital gains and dividends.

The focus, of course, is on President Barack Obama's resounding re-election — but there are plenty of other reasons why Democrats are celebrating Tuesday night's results. In the summer, it looked like Obama's party would struggle to maintain their Senate majority. Instead, they have extended it. Embattled incumbents held on in tight races in Missouri, Montana and Ohio. The Democrats also retained vulnerable seats in New Mexico, North Dakota, Virginia and Wisconsin despite the incumbents having retired. And they took seats off the Republicans in Indiana and Massachusetts, to take their total up to 54 Senators — and it could rise to 55 if newly-elected independent Angus King decides to caucus with them. The Democrats also beat expectations in House elections.

Four years ago, in opposition, the Cameron offices were a swing state in the US election. Most were for Obama but there was still a sizable number who held a torch for John McCain. But this time round it is hard to think of anyone in Downing Street who wanted a Romney win. I asked several people in No. 10 who would have voted for Romney, but only one name ever came up. The idea of a Tory Downing Street urging on a Democratic President would come as a shock to those who served in the Thatcher and Major governments. In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher had common foes at home and abroad. But it would be a mistake to think that the relationship between Tories and the Republican party went into decline when they both left office. Instead, it got even closer.

Iain Duncan Smith last night threw his weight behind Mitt Romney in a manner his colleagues have been reluctant to do. He told Pienaar's Politics that he was unimpressed with the 'appalling' way the British media was covering the presidential race, saying: 'I think the American election has been appallingly reported really over here in the UK, I think it's misrepresented the whole nature of it. The reality is that either candidate has a real job to do. The idea - the demonisation of Mitt Romney over here has been appalling really. I've met many of his people, you know, they may have faults, all politicians have faults, this is a guy that actually ran a state very well, he got the debt and deficit down, he's turned around businesses.

We're now just a week away from election day in the United States. And after all the campaign rallies, all the debates, all the billions of dollars spent, it looks quite possible that things will be left pretty much the same as they are now — as far as control of the federal government goes, anyway. The most likely outcome of the Presidential election? Barack Obama re-elected. The most likely outcome of the Senate elections? 51 Democrats, 47 Republicans and two independents who caucus with the Democrats — just as there are now. And the most likely outcome of the House of Representatives elections? Well, the expert team at the Cook Political Report predicts that the Democrats will gain between zero and ten seats — at best reducing the Republican majority from 49 to 29.