Unemployment

No two ways about it: today’s employment figures are difficult for the coalition. The unemployment figure’s up for the seventh month in a row, and now stands at 2.68 million — the highest since 1994. And the unemployment rate — up to 8.4 per cent — is at its highest since 1995. It doesn't look like getting better anytime soon, either: unemployment's predicted to carry on rising at least until the end of the year, possibly matching the three million peak of the early ‘90s. In its defence, the government claims that employment is rising too. Today's figure of 29.1 million in employment is about 150,000 higher than it was at the general election. That may seem odd — how come unemployment's up when more people are employed?

Reading the papers today, you could be forgiven for thinking that MigrationWatch’s new report was a smoking gun against immigration. Here we have a study that links immigration to unemployment, in the face of nearly all previous research that has found no such link. However, looking at the MigrationWatch piece itself, it quickly becomes clear how implausible these claims are. The MigrationWatch report centres on a comparison of rising youth unemployment and rising immigration from the ‘A8’ countries – the Eastern European states that joined the EU in 2004. The correlation between the two is remarkably weak. During the initial rise in immigration between 2004 and the end of 2008, there is no significant rise in unemployment at all.

There was a time when Nick Clegg was the most agile and persistent defender of the coalition's deficit reduction programme. But now — although he's still got it in him — he is more often wheeled out to announce some spending wheeze or other. A couple of weeks ago, it was the next instalment of the government's regional growth fund. Today, it's a £1 billion scheme, spread out over three years, to encourage companies to take on young people. This latest scheme is one of those that looks very neat on paper. Put aside questions about how it will be funded, and what we have is a plan whereby £2,275 will be paid to companies for each young recruit they bring on. It means that, in effect, the state will cover half of the youth minimum wage for a six-month period.

Despite – or perhaps because of – the recession, pensioner employment has increased dramtically over the past few years. In his Telegraph column today, Fraser remarks on this important but largely ignored trend in Britain's workforce. 'A million jobs have been lost since the Great Recession began', he says, 'but the number of pension-aged people in work has increased by 200,000.' Here's that phenomenom in graph form: Why has this happened? Fraser puts his finger on one important factor: 'Crucially, they pay less tax. A pensioner manning the tills in Tesco will take home 12 per cent more than a working-age colleague on the same salary.

Today's unemployment figures do not make for cheery reading. Youth unemployment is up to over a million and unemployment overall has reached 2.62 million, meaning that the unemployment rate is the highest it has been for 15 years. Laura Kuenssberg tweets one particularly striking statistic: 'Number of UK Nationals in work fell 280k compared to this time last year, number of non-UK Nationals in work increased 147k over same time' This suggests that it's a touch too simple just to say that there are no jobs out there. It also means that we really should think about why non-UK nationals are proving so much more adept at finding work than their British counterparts.

Today’s youth unemployment figures are simply appalling. It’s now 21 per cent amongst the under-25s, above the peak of 18 per cent seen under the 1990s recession. For the first time since then, Britain’s youth joblessness is worse than the European average. This is a tragedy, and not one we should accept as being a grimly inevitable aspect of the recession. Ed Miliband said in PMQs that a million young people are on the dole: a statistic everyone should get angry about. And we can think of what has gone wrong. The above graph shows how Britain has nothing left to boast about in unemployment. Blair used to love heading to Brussels and saying the real 'social model' was lower regulation which meant higher employment. What’s changed over the last 20 years?

On Monday, we published a post on George Osborne's "jobless recovery" — the point being that 90 per cent of the recent rise in employment can be accounted for by foreign nationals. Here's a counterpunch to it from the IPPR's Matt Cavanagh, who should already be familiar to CoffeeHousers from his previous posts and articles for us on matters military. We're hoping that this will be the first of a new series of "Right to reply" posts, giving outside writers the opportunity to take on your loyal baristas in mortal combat. Here goes: One of the most frequently recycled statistics of recent years is the percentage of "new jobs going to foreigners". The first thing to say is that this is a bad way to phrase it.

“More than 400,000 people have been out of work for more than two years, according to analysis of the latest Government data by think tank IPPR.” So runs its press release today, trailed in the Sunday press and the wires. I hope the IPPR didn’t spend too much of their donors’ money on this research, as the figure is updated quarterly and freely available from the DWP website (click here). Add up only three categories: lone parents, jobseekers allowance and incapacity benefit the figure stands at 2.4 million, certainly “more than 400,000”. Worse, at the peak of the boom (Feb07), this figure was even higher at 2.5 million. And yes, it’s a real problem. As the IPPR goes on to say, unemployment is self-reinforcing.