Ukraine

Lessons from costly wars past

Money is often a substitute for strategy in US foreign policy. We spent $2 trillion in Afghanistan, only to lose the country the minute our troops began to pull out. How much will it realistically cost, then, to beat Russia in Ukraine? Will the next $100 or $200 billion do the trick? This is not a question that supporters of war-spending ask themselves. As in Afghanistan, spending is a way to defer thinking about actually winning — or facing the serious possibility of losing. Our aid buys delay, not results. Ironically, while the specter of World War Two is invoked every time there’s a conflict, our experience then teaches the same lesson as recent attempts to purchase victory.

wars
foreign policy

Where is the clarity in modern center-right foreign policy?

When Ohio senator J.D. Vance arrived at the Munich Security Conference in February, he had a clear message meant for the world: the Republican Party was no longer the party of Ronald Reagan. Standing outside the Hotel Bayerischer Hof, he informed reporters that he did not believe American support for combat against authoritarian regimes should extend to Ukraine — and that he would continue to oppose efforts to “increase the supply of weapons in Ukraine because we’ve already expended so many of our munitions and resources” to achieve a victory that he does not foresee. Vance’s bootstrap story is well-known — he’s a Marine veteran turned Yale Law grad turned venture capitalist made prominent by his bestselling Appalachia memoir Hillbilly Elegy.

Resisting the escalation in Ukraine

The drums of war are reverberating across Eastern Europe. Every geopolitical decision made by global powers carries immense weight. Amid the fear of growing conflict, one figure has emerged, wielding a sharp tongue and a pointed finger, challenging hesitant American lawmakers to bolster Ukraine’s defense against Russian aggression. Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski has embarked on a media offensive, chastising Republicans for their reluctance to green-light the Biden administration’s proposed $60 billion military aid package for Ukraine. Despite his purported noble objectives, Sikorski’s appeal deserves closer examination.

ukraine

Pope Francis’s Ukraine war faux-pas

If you didn’t know any better, you might think that Pope Francis was no longer welcome in Ukraine. His recent interview with a Swiss broadcaster, excerpts of which were released over the weekend, has caused a whirlwind of disappointment and anger in Ukrainian policy circles as well as with some of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters in the West. The subject of derision: whether Ukraine should do a little less fighting and a lot more talking. Asked to comment about the debate between those who seek a negotiated end to Russia’s two-year-long war in Ukraine and those who oppose such a stance, Pope Francis chose the side of dialogue.

pope francis

Victoria Nuland was the Kremlin’s princess of darkness

It was not a Super Tuesday for either Senator Kyrsten Sinema or State Department official Victoria J. Nuland. Each announced that they were stepping down from their positions. Sinema is declining to run once more in Arizona for the Senate. Nuland is exiting her post as the number three official at State, where she was widely seen as the champion of a hawkish approach to foreign policy. Sinema delivered a mawkish message that essentially blamed the American people for failing to recognize, let alone value, her valorous attempt to restore American power and prosperity. Nuland, by contrast, had to be satisfied with a statement from secretary of state Antony J. Blinken: “She always speaks her mind.

victoria nuland
air force catfished

Air Force employee catfished into sharing military secrets

In what may be the most obvious catfishing scam of all time, a contractor for the Air Force was caught sharing military secrets with an individual posing as a Ukrainian woman on a foreign dating app.   David Franklin Slater, a retired Army lieutenant colonel who was serving as a US Air Force civilian employee at the time of the catfishing, was arrested Saturday on three charges of conspiracy and disclosing national defense information.  Slater held a top-secret security clearance from August 2021 until April 2022 which gave him access to briefings about the Russo-Ukraine War.

How foreign policy will impact the 2024 election

Donald Trump’s long march through the Republican primaries leaves little doubt about the inevitability of a Biden-Trump rematch in November — court cases and old age notwithstanding, of course. Unlike previous contests, foreign policy looks set to be at top of mind for many voters. Which, if you’re a Biden supporter, isn’t great news. In a recent AP poll, four in ten American adults named foreign policy as issues the government should work on in 2024. The president’s decisions abroad broadcast weakness, lack of direction and myopia, traits that have come to define his first term. The deadly and chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan was only a sign of things to come, as more conflicts and crises sprang up around the world.

policy
trump

What will the new Trump foreign policy look like?

A month after the election shock of 2016, CBS’s John Dickerson sat down with the ninety-three-year-old Henry Kissinger to get his assessment of the incoming president. “Donald Trump is a phenomenon that foreign countries haven’t seen,” Kissinger pronounced, noting that many nations would have to weigh “their perception that [Barack Obama] basically withdrew America from international politics, so that they had to make their own assessment of their necessities,” along with “a new president who is asking a lot of unfamiliar questions.” Given “the combination of the partial vacuum and the new questions, one could imagine that something remarkable and new emerges out of it,” Kissinger added. “I’m not saying it will. I’m saying it’s an extraordinary opportunity.

biden ward

Who’s really behind the Biden administration’s foreign policy?

If you’re one of the many people worried that US foreign policy is in the hands of a visibly declining eighty-one year-old president, Alexander Ward’s account of the Biden administration’s first two years in office may — or may not — make you feel better, for he leaves readers with little doubt as to who is actually the executive branch’s most influential decision-maker: forty-seven year-old national security advisor Jake Sullivan. Ward might deny any such authorial intent, but time and again he shows his hand, as when he invokes “Sullivan’s first two years at the helm alongside Biden.

Trump says he will let NATO down. How will Kamala Harris respond?

When Donald Trump declared that Russia could do “whatever the hell it wants” to NATO countries, he was espousing his own lifelong credo. Trump has done whatever he pleases for most of his life. It was generous of him to extend the same carte blanche to the Kremlin, which is presumably pleased with his offer but has yet to comment on it publicly.  Once upon a time, conservatives used to raise an eyebrow over the notion over doing whatever the hell you want. They were in a more censorious mode, arguing that this amounted to moral relativism. Now it seems that anything goes.  The old certitudes are gone.

donald trump nato

Vladimir Putin’s night at the Tucker Carlson circus

Tucker Carlson is a master contortionist. As conservative strategist David Reaboi reminded us this week, one of the most egregious examples of Carlson’s tendency for reality deformation came in the form of an interview with Kanye West, the troubled rapper who sat for an interview on Carlson’s erstwhile Fox News show a couple of years ago. It was the middle of West’s antisemitic meltdown, but because West was embracing Donald Trump, Carlson presented him as a sensible, even brilliant thinker. “Is West crazy?” Carlson asked at the top of the interview, before concluding at the end: “Not crazy. Worth listening to, even if you disagree with him.

tucker carlson

The biggest overreactions to Tucker Carlson’s Putin interview that no one has seen yet

Judging by some of the responses to Tucker Carlson’s announcement of his forthcoming interview with Vladimir Putin, you'd think the former Fox News host had been caught driving a tank into Kharkiv. Naturally, Cockburn is reserving judgment until he's seen the conversation itself — which is scheduled to be released this evening. Of course, Carlson has a track record of going easy in interviews with morally dubious guests such as Andrew Tate, Russell Brand and Kevin Spacey — and several other outlets were declined the opportunity to grill Putin by the Kremlin. Nonetheless, the reactions to Carlson's presence in Moscow seem particularly highly strung given no one currently knows what questions he asked. Among the most vocal critics of Carlson has been Hillary Clinton.

tucker carlson moscow

House GOP declares border bill ‘DEAD on arrival’

After a long wait, the text of the bipartisan Senate bill for Ukraine and border funding was finally released on Sunday night. The massive piece of legislation clocks in at 370 pages and, in addition to the border policy changes previously reported on here, sends an additional $60 billion to Ukraine, tightens asylum standards, prohibits removal of unaccompanied minors, authorizes $1.4 billion in FEMA funding for resources for migrants settling in the US and gives President Biden the authority to overturn any emergency authorization at the border. The House GOP’s verdict is in: Speaker Johnson asserted that the legislation is “dead on arrival” in his chamber.  “I’ve seen enough.

Both parties are fumbling the border debate

Given just how unpopular illegal immigration is, it is stunning to see both the likely nominees for president fumbling the issue. That’s political malpractice.  For Biden, the malpractice consists not only in keeping the border open, which is already killing him in the polls, but in resisting the strongest Republican proposals to close it. Every time Republican congressional leaders visit the White House to negotiate, they come away empty handed.   In stiff-arming the Republican proposals, the White House has put itself in the awkward position of saying it will grudgingly accept their efforts but only if Republicans make concessions on other issues.

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The re-supplied Russians hit Ukraine with full force

LVIV — The Japanese have a concept of forest bathing for health. Joe Rogan promotes daily ice baths for a little shock to get you going in the morning. But in Ukraine, people often experience missile-and-drone baths, and so it was in the early hours of last Friday, when Russia launched what seems to have been its biggest ever sky assault upon Ukrainian cities. It was the first major Russian attack upon Ukrainian since the summer, when Ukraine disrupted Moscow’s missile-launching Black Sea Fleet.  Since then, it’s been a brutal New Year.  Just before 5 a.m.

ukraine

Poland and Hungary learn different lessons from history

For decades, the European Union was dominated by a combination of French élan and German economic clout. By the late 2010s, a conservative Budapest-Warsaw alliance seemed poised to challenge this arrangement. The ideological firepower was supplied by Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán, who emerged as an unlikely spokesman for the international right, while Poland’s booming economy and large population lent the partnership some much needed heft. The Polish elections in mid-October not only marked the end of the Law and Justice party’s near-decade of conservative rule; they offered another blow to a Polish-Hungarian relationship already fraying over the war in Ukraine.

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Biden’s Oval Office address was a sales pitch

A primetime address in the Oval Office is the pinnace of presidential speechifying. Ronald Reagan used the room in 1986 to console the nation after the Challenger blew up on live television. George W. Bush declared the global war on terrorism there. Donald Trump leveraged the weight of the Resolute Desk as he talked to Americans about a deadly but mysterious virus called Covid-19 for the first time.   Tonight, it was Joe Biden’s turn. The topics, the wars in Ukraine and Israel, couldn’t be more different with respect to the players, the stakes or the circumstances leading up to them. Even so, Biden tried to convince the American people on the idea that the two wars were one and the same.

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A storm is brewing in the Senate, too

After the US House stole the spotlight last week, sources on the Hill say a similar, yet more “behind-closed-doors” brouhaha is brewing within the Senate. In the face of a government shutdown, conservatives have been in “constant” cross-chamber communication. For instance, when the Schumer-McConnell bill, with its $6 billion of funding for Ukraine, was on the table the weekend before last, Senate Republicans were apprised that House Democrats were filibustering to get it passed. As the House convened on Saturday September 30, and the Senate convened at noon for a 1 p.m.

mike lee senate congress

Meet Hunter Biden’s Eastern European girlfriends

Business isn’t the only thing that Hunter Biden likes to do in Ukraine. The president's son has an affinity for Eastern European women, especially those who happen to be sex workers. Treasury documents reveal Hunter's links to an Eastern European sex trafficking ring and falsified checks from his companies' account to prostitutes likely present at his cocaine-fueled nights. Cockburn must give Hunter credit for killing two birds — business and pleasure — with the same Ukrainian stone.  According to Suspicious Activity Reports reviewed by the MailOnline, Hunter’s accounts were being monitored as early as December 2019, after financial crime investigators at Wells Fargo found payments from Hunter and his companies to the suspected Eastern European prostitution ring.

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Zelensky forced to make an impossible sell

When Volodomyr Zelensky came to Washington last December, he inhabited a very different political environment than he does today. At the time, Ukraine remained a largely bipartisan effort. Polls found most Republicans supported sending continued weapons to Ukraine — just nine months later, the faction opposed to sending even one more dime to support Zelensky’s cause in the conflict has dramatically soured.  This is due in part to the very predictable slog of this war, but it’s also due to choices by Joe Biden’s administration. Much as they have turned on the spigot in a time of economic uncertainty and rising inflation concerns, the Biden team has even received criticism from their own party for dragging their feet on the weapon systems Ukraine claims it needs to win the war.