Uk politics

Thursday

James Forsyth

Alan Duncan is a very lucky man

From our UK edition

Guido has just blogged that he was offered the video of Alan Duncan complaining that MPs live on rations and are treated like sh-ts back in June. If Guido had run it then, Duncan would have been in far bigger trouble and might well have ended up being sacked. The expenses story was still much rawer then, the whole press corps would have been in full pursuit and Cameron would have had to answer questions about whether Duncan could stay or not in every interview he did. Duncan’s comments, though, again call into question his judgement.

Daniel Korski

In Kosovo, progress is clear but work remains

From our UK edition

Today Anders Fogh Rasmussen, the new NATO secretary-general, is visiting Kosovo as part of his get-to-know-the-job tour. What is so remarkable about this particular visit is, well, that it's so unremarkable. That there is so little attention paid to the newly-independent country at all. Those, particularly on the Left, who railed against the war - and Kosovo's declaration of independence almost ten years after NATO's air campaign - have moved on. Their interest in Kosovo, let alone the Western Balkans, was instrumental. Those who predicted that the declaration of independence would spark another cycle of violence and the election of irredentist Serbs in Belgrade were wrong. Violence has been minimal and moderate parties have won the last two elections in Serbia.

Peter Hoskin

The race to recovery is looking bad for Brown

From our UK edition

Oh dear.  Another blow to Brown's economic credibility this morning, as France and Germany announce that they've come out of recession already.  Both economies grew by 0.3 percent in the second quarter of the year - in contrast to the UK economy, which shrank by 0.8 percent. Whatever the factors behind it, this spells trouble for Brown.  A poor performance in the race to recovery not only calls his management of the economy into question, but it also undermines his anticipated "green shoots strategy".  The PM will find it hard to brag about our "green shoots" when other countries already have full-grown plants.

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

The truth behind Mandy’s “half-a-million jobs” claim

From our UK edition

Anyone listening to Lord Mandelson’s claim this morning that the Brown stimulus saved “at least” half a million jobs would have smelt a large, whiskered rat. The Treasury has tonight told The Telegraph that the 500,000 figure was a maximum estimate, not a minimum as Mandy claimed. Your baristas here at Coffee House have asked the Treasury to show us their study – not available, it seems. So we have submitted a Freedom of Information request for it. While we all hold our breath, it’s worth looking at this claim in more detail because it is a Brownie we are highly likely to hear again.

Peter Hoskin

Duncan’s rations: now with added video

From our UK edition

Further to my post earlier, Sky have now produced an embeddable copy of Don't Panic's Alan Duncan video. The offending remarks come around 04:30 in: I know I said before that I'm inclined to believe Duncan's excuse - that the comments were made in jest - but the more I watch the clip, the less convinced I am. Intentional hyperbole - perhaps. A joke - hmm. Either way, it's a stark error of judgement on the shadow leader's part.

James Forsyth

Does Mandelson remember that Blair thought cross-dressing was a good idea?<br />

From our UK edition

Peter Mandelson has been getting very cross, and rather personal, about George Osborne’s ‘political cross dressing”. But during the Blair era, it was New Labour politicians who were keen on cross dressing. Indeed, on his farewell tour Tony Blair went out of his way to declare it as something that was here to stay: "Most confusingly for modern politicians, many of the policy prescriptions cross traditional left-right lines. Basic values, attitudes to the positive role of government, social objectives - these still divide among familiar party lines, but on policy cross-dressing is rampant and a feature of modern politics that will stay. "The era of tribal political leadership is over.

Peter Hoskin

Osborne should avoid Brown-style rhetoric on cuts

From our UK edition

Right, I know I keep banging on about Osborne's speech, but - Alan Duncan's loose lips aside - it's certainly the topic du jour in Westminster.  Yesterday evening, I noted a couple of qualms I had with what I thought was - on the whole - an important and effective address.  Today, I've got another concern to add to the pile; one prompted by Osborne's article in the Times. The headline to that article reads thus: "The new dividing line: radical reform or cuts".  And the sub-head runs: "Sceptics argue that reform is a luxury we cannot afford.  Without it, money for schools and health will inevitably be slashed."  Now, there are some major problems with that argument.

Daniel Korski

A new world order – don’t be silly

From our UK edition

Go to any international think-tank conference and you will hear one complaint repeated ad nauseam: the intenational system, built after World War II - and incorporating the UN, NATO, the IMF, WHO etc. - is no longer fit for purpose. It needs to change to accomodate new threats, like climate change, and new powers like India and Brazil. The last point is particularly oft-heard. If India provides the majority of UN peacekeepers, should Delhi not have a permanent say on the UN Security Council? Now that China has become a pillar of the global economy, should the Beijing government not have more votes on the IMF board? The limited representation of these states is thrown into relief when compared with the over-representation of European states like Britain and France.

Peter Hoskin

Something the Tories could do without…

From our UK edition

...Alan Duncan saying on video that MPs are treated "like sh*t", and that they're forced to live on "rations".  He's just apologised, saying that the remarks were meant in jest.  And I'm inclined to believe him: he was, after all, in conversation with the political pranksters over at Don't Panic (although he didn't know he was being filmed).  But, either way, it's easy work for his opponents to take these things out of context.  And many will argue that the expenses fiasco isn't a laughing matter in the first place.

Fraser Nelson

Brown’s children

From our UK edition

Why is this recession so cruel to the young? The unemployment figures - now up to 2.44 million - are bad enough. It's the largest single quarterly drop since data began in 1971. But look deeper and there's a striking disparity amongst the age groups. The under-18s – school leavers – are hit the most, with their employment numbers down 17% year-on-year. The 18-24 year olds are next worst hit. But there is actually a rise in pension-aged people returning to work. The bottom line: unemployment amongst the under-25s is a third higher than when Labour came to power. CoffeeHousers may remember how full of pious anger Gordon Brown was during the last recession, saying that youth unemployment was a particular outrage, and he called them "Major's children".

Peter Hoskin

When Mandelson can’t launch a convincing counterattack, you know things are bad for Labour

From our UK edition

Whatever you might think of George Osborne's speech on progressive politics yesterday - and I have some doubts of my own - it's hard to take Peter Mandelson's Guardian article about it particularly seriously.  As Tim Montgomerie says over at ConservativeHome, there's little in there beyond personal attacks on Osborne and a caricature of the Tory position, all underpinned by the insistent claim that progressive ends can only be delivered by Labour means.  For someone who lambasted the media for not "not talking about policy" in his interview with the Guardian on Monday, it's a rather poor show. But, worst of all for Labour, is that Mandy's position is confused and inconsistent.

David Blackburn

Renaissance of the Prince

From our UK edition

‘Kindly pussycat’? ‘Minister for fun’? ‘A benign uncle?’ This was how Lord Mandelson described himself in that pantomime of an interview with the Guardian earlier this week. But this morning, the Prince of Darkness returned. Perhaps running the government for three days maligned the would-be Widow Twanky of Monday, but it is more likely that Mandy couldn’t resist crossing swords with George Osborne again. He launches a scathing personal and political attack on Osborne and his progressive agenda in today’s Guardian. Here are the key sections: 'To be a progressive is to believe that we can make a better society and improve the conditions of individual lives by acting together...It is to believe in the necessity and value of social justice.

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Supplementary notes on Osborne’s progressive speech

From our UK edition

Earlier, I wrote that Osborne's speech today seemed to be a significant moment for Project Cameron.  Having attended the Demos event a few hours ago, I still think that's the case.  Sure, there wasn't anything particularly new in it - and the delivery didn't quite zing - but its central point that Brown's approach to the public finances is regressive, while spending cuts and the right reforms could deliver better services for all, is a necessary refinement of the Tory message.  Come election time, Brown is going to deploy all kinds of attacks on the "nasty Tories" and their "cuts in frontline services", so it's important for Cameron & Co. that they counter this in advance.

James Forsyth

The press’ obsession with the Tories, Rachel Whetstone and Google is immature 

From our UK edition

Nearly all the papers have run articles on Rachel Whetstone today. These pieces concentrate on the fact that she’s the partner of Steve Hilton, Cameron’s chief strategist, and that the Tories mention Google quite often. Frankly, this strikes me as a nothing story. The Tories are mentioning Google so much because it is the kind of modern, successful brand that they want to be associated with, not because Whetsone, who was Michael Howard’s political secretary and who used to be close for Cameron, works there. Also, considering how Google has become shorthand for so much of the technological change going on around us, it would be rather hard for a politician to talk about how the internet can change the way public services are delivered without ever mentioning the company.

David Blackburn

Another Conservative MP won’t be standing at the next election.

From our UK edition

Michael Ancram is standing down at the next election on grounds of ill-health, you can read his resignation statement here. Former leadership candidate Ancram was embroiled in the expenses scandal, claiming £98.58 on swimming pool repairs and more than £4,250 in one year on cleaning and maintaining his second home. According to the Telegraph, he is understood to have been unhappy with David Cameron’s handling of the expenses scandal. William Hague paid tribute to Ancram's work as Conservative Party chairman through what were the Tories' "darkest times in opposition.

David Blackburn

The trials of being in a power couple

From our UK edition

It seems Hillary Clinton is smarting from her husband’s Korean coup. Exhibit A: her Q&A session with Congolese students yesterday, where her translator relayed this question: “Mrs Clinton, we've all heard about the Chinese contracts in this country. The interference is from the World Bank against this contract. What does Mr. Clinton think through the mouth of Mrs. Clinton and what does Mr. Mutombo think on this situation?”    The Secretary of State offered a stark clarification: “My husband is not secretary of state, I am. I am not going to be channelling my husband." Here's footage: The official line is that it was all down to a mistranslation and the student actually said “Mr. Obama”.

Peter Hoskin

Gove stirs up trouble for Balls

From our UK edition

I gave it a passing mention in my last post, but it's worth highlighting Michael Gove's mischievous comment piece in the the Guardian today.  Why "mischievous"?  Well, because its purpose seems to be to rile Ed Balls and mobilise his internal opponents: 'In a series of not so subtle signals to the grassroots, Ed has been emphasising, whenever the opportunity arises, that he is the socialist candidate for anyone in the party who wants to move away from the sullied compromises of Blair era. In a recent interview he explained that the battle for the leadership would be a struggle between David Miliband and himself - setting up the contest as a choice between the clearest heir to Blair and the key opponent of Blairism.

Peter Hoskin

Osborne makes progress

From our UK edition

It's a big day for George Osborne.  The Shadow Chancellor is using his new platform at Demos — the think-tank which is credited with much of the brainwork behind the initial New Labour project, but which is now turning to the Tories as well as to the Purnellite wing of the Labour party — to deliver a speech on progressive politics.  I haven't read the whole thing yet, but the snippets which have been published in the papers make it seem like a significant moment in Project Cameron: when the Tories extrapolate their attacks on Brown's fiscal legacy further, and perhaps more resonantly, than they have done before.  Here's a key passage, to give you the idea:   “...

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Putting the “public” into “public spending cuts”

From our UK edition

My old colleagues at Reform have put together a very useful analysis of the Canadian spending cuts programme - which got that country's debt-to-GDP ratio down by 20 percent during the late 1990s - over at Centre Right.  I'd suggest you read the whole thing, but this point deserves repeating: "The key lesson from the Canadian reforms is that, as Andrew Haldenby recently argued, getting the public to support tough measures requires them to feel part of the process.

James Forsyth

If the Tories are serious about being ready to govern from day one, they should be examining whether or not Vat needs to be raised

From our UK edition

The Tory response to the story that they plan to raise Vat to 20 percent after the next election, worried me. The Tory line is that there are no plans to do this and that there have been no high-level discussions about it. But, frankly, there should have been. Not because increasing Vat is necessarily the right thing to do, but because the Tories should be exploring what can be done to get this country out of the huge fiscal hole that Brown has dug it into. I find it less than encouraging that less than a year out from an election, the opposition hasn’t even — or so it claims — discussed whether pushing Vat up to 20 percent might be necessary: if you haven’t examined something, you can’t know whether or not it is a sensible thing to do.