Uk politics

Man on wire

From our UK edition

It's a fairly quiet day in Westminster, so Chris Grayling's comparison between Britain and the gangland ghettos portrayed in The Wire is probably getting more attention than it would normally - after all, it's not like the Tories haven't majored on the "Broken Britain" theme before now.  But, even so, I think he may have erred in mentioning the acclaimed US TV series.  While superb, it is, don't forget, the show that the chattering classes love to chatter about.  So, now, much of the coverage is about the TV programme rather than the problems Grayling is highlighting.

A very risky strategy

From our UK edition

Labour’s attempt to create a new dividing line on cuts is intriguing because it suggests that the government reckons we are pulling out of recession – a message Alistair Darling has been stressing recently. Central to Labour’s argument is that their initial interventions, opposed by the Tories, preserved public services through the recession. By claiming that now is the time to make extensive cuts, beyond mere efficiency savings, suggests that they think the economy is robust enough to survive sweeping public spending cuts. If an economic boom couldn’t save John Major, I doubt a modest recovery will save Brown from defeat.

Twilight Zone Tuesday: Brown to announce spending cuts

From our UK edition

Now this is a turn up.  According to the Independent, Gordon Brown is going to "issue a list of specific [spending] cuts" as part of his Autumn "fightback".  Here's how the strategy goes: "Initially, Mr Brown will seek to establish in voters' minds the key differences between Labour and the Tories – on policy, government intervention to limit the impact of the recession and preserving frontline services. Then he will acknowledge that the Government needs to go beyond the £35bn of efficiency savings it has already promised. The aim will be to show Labour is serious about reducing the deficit, which is set to rocket to £175bn in the current financial year and to £173bn next year.

Would Cameron govern differently?

From our UK edition

In an episode of Yes Prime Minister, a tobacco mogul asks Sir Humphrey: “Does he carry any clout in Whitehall?” The Mandarin replies: “None at all, he’s only a minister.” The context has changed but the essential truth remains – most Cabinet ministers have no clout in government whatsoever. That at least is the view of four former Sir Humphreys. Lords Turnbull, Wilson, Butler, and Armstrong are quoted in the Guardian saying that New Labour has centralised government around a clique of special advisers. The result? The marginalisation of the cabinet and the breakdown of what they term ‘the efficient and proper conduct of government’.

There’s no one like Macavity

From our UK edition

Paul Waugh’s spot on: Brown has been reluctant to congratulate England for their Ashes victory because he is so desperate to avoid being dragged into the international furore surrounding al-Megrahi's release. A Number.10 spokesman described Kenny MacAskill’s release order as a “uniquely sensitive and difficult decision" and one that (surprise, surprise) was taken completely independently of the British government. But, as yet, Macavity's not here. I suppose I could be doing the PM a disservice. Braying about our Ashes victory would, of course, be uniquely insensitive to our Australian brothers. And besides, giving congratulations is probably someone else’s job.

Confidence returns

From our UK edition

One of the most significant news stories of the day comes courtesy of the Institute of Chartered Accountants: "Confidence among business professionals has surged, suggesting the recession is at an end, a survey has said. The Institute of Chartered Accountants' index of business confidence rose to 4.8 at the end of June, from -28.2 in March, the biggest rise for two years." Economically speaking, this is encouraging stuff – it's the view from the frontline of the real economy, after all.  And these types of surveys always tend to have a self-fulfilling quality, as more confident companies adopt the measures – spending, hiring etc. – which are likely to drive us out of recession.

Cameron must set out health plans

From our UK edition

For some time now at Coffee House, we’ve questioned the sense of Cameron’s pledge to increase NHS spending in real terms. And in today’s Independent, a ComRes poll suggests that 62 percent of Tory MPs do not think the NHS should receive guaranteed spending increases. Indeed, their opposition to Mr Cameron’s plans runs deeper: only 33 percent believe the current model of care free at the point of delivery is sustainable. Additionally, the Independent quotes an anonymous Tory MP saying:  "The hope is that we would be more radical on health in office than we say now, that he [Mr Cameron] is anxious not to frighten the horses. But there are concerns about cutting other areas and allowing the health budget to carry on rising regardless.

Thank God they’re not running a war

From our UK edition

Last week, defence maestro Kevan Jones launched his master-strategy to smear General Sir Richard Dannatt. It was ingenious. An FOI request would reveal the General to be a spendthrift, abusing taxpayers' generosity by lavishing their money on his grace and favour accommodation and on raucous parties for his army mates. To borrow a phrase, there was just one small flaw in the plan: it was rubbish. The Mail reveals that General Dannatt’s grace and favour apartment is a stable block, not a palace, and that he pays tax on it because he views it as a perk. His other claims are modest. Audiciously, Sir Richard secured £19,270.77p in expenses between 2005 and 2009.

The stench of realpolitik

From our UK edition

Suggesting that al-Megrahi’s release was the result of a deal being struck to protect commercial interests should be offensive, but there are a number of questions the government need to answer. First, was al-Megrahi’s transfer a condition of the Blair-Gadaffi Deal in the Desert? On Friday, Saif al-Islam said: “In all commercial contracts for oil and gas with Britain, Megrahi was always on the negotiating table”. The Foreign Office deny this and yesterday Lord Mandelson said: “The issue of the prisoner’s release is quite separate from the general matter of our relations and indeed the prisoner’s release has not been influenced in any way by the British government.

Gove pushes his agenda

From our UK edition

If you can divert your attention away from the Ashes for a second, then I'd recommend you read John Rentoul's fascinating interview with Michael Gove in today's Independent on Sunday.  The two most eye-catching passages concern Gove's "ultra-Blarism" and his thoughts on foreign policy.  The Blairism first: "And when I ask if it is wise to paint himself as a Blairite, given the former prime minister's latter unpopularity, he says: 'He's not as popular as he deserves to be, and he's emphatically not as popular within Labour as he deserves to be – amazing ingratitude on their part.

Another Sunday, another set of damaging rumours for Brown

From our UK edition

Brace yourselves, it's leadership speculation time again.  A story in the Mail on Sunday alleges that Alistair Darling has been attacking Brown in private - "I am trying to talk sense into that man..." - before adding this: "Last night there were claims that backers of Home Secretary Alan Johnson - widely seen as the stop-gap leader if Mr Brown quits before the General Election - were secretly canvassing 'non-aligned' Labour MPs not closely linked to any potential successor. Sports Minister Gerry Sutcliffe, who ran Mr Johnson's unsuccessful Labour deputy leadership bid in 2007, was accused of quietly taking names." Whether true or no', these rumblings tell you everything you need to know about Brown's beleagured premiership.

Tories more trusted on NHS than Labour

From our UK edition

The Tories will be pleased.  After the #welovetheNHS brouhaha of the past couple of weeks, a ComRes poll in tomorrow's Independent on Sunday gives them a healthy lead on the NHS.  In response to the statement "The NHS would be safer under Labour than the Conservatives," 39 percent of respondents said they agreed, while 47 percent said they disagreed.  That's an 8 point advantage for the Tories. It's pretty devastating stuff for Labour, but - oddly - comes in one of the Tories' weakest policy areas.  Let's hope this encourages Cameron & Co. to think and talk more about health service reform.

Do the Tories need an “-ism”?

From our UK edition

So what overarching theory do Cameron & Co. believe in now?  Is it Phillip Blond's "Red Toryism"?  Are they still invigorated by "libertarian paternalism"?  Or have they struck on something else?  This week's Bagehot column in the Economist gives us a useful overview of all the -isms the Tories have gone through recently, before landing on a conclusion that the policy wonks in CCHQ may not like: "The Tories should stop worrying about whether their view of the world works in theory, and concentrate more on generating ideas that will work in practice. They can live without an ideology; what they urgently require is balls." Bagehot's take is certainly attractive.

The ‘Dear Leader’s Children’

From our UK edition

A major political headache is how to ensure the recession doesn’t claim another lost generation. Official figures suggest that nearly 1 million people under the age of 25 are already on the dole, with a further 1.5 million being economically inactive. These figures will only get worse. Polly Toynbee thinks that Germany is pulling out of recession because they have the answer: ‘Labour's efforts are directed towards getting people into work. But Germany focuses on stopping people falling out of work, by contributing to wages. A study this week says a ¤6bn scheme prevented a major rise in unemployment, and helps explain why Germany is already pulling out of recession.

The biggest failure of the Tory opposition years

From our UK edition

Fantastic, thought-provoking stuff by Matthew Parris in the Times today, as he looks back on the past 12 years of Tory opposition and asks: "Just what did they achieve?"  His response is generally unfavourable: that, until more recently, the wilderness years have largely been wasted years.  And he highlights the Tories' inability to take on Labour over their wasteful spending and burgeoning deficit: "But it was on the central domestic question of the era that the Tories’ nerve failed almost fatally. At first new Labour held to the tight spending plans that it inherited from John Major’s outgoing administration. Then the Government let go. The letting go was, in retrospect, fairly spectacular.

Widdecombe: I’ve just had enough

From our UK edition

It's worth reading Iain Dale’s interview with Ann Widdecombe in the latest issue of Total Politics. Widdecombe is, of course, standing down at the next election, and much of the interview concerns her future plans: she wants to appear on Strictly Come Dancing, for instance, perhaps as the feminine answer to John Sergeant. But, naturally, the outspoken MP makes some forceful points about the current state of British politics. Her conclusion?  That things are so bad she’s had enough. First, she attacks Cameron’s ‘A-list’ candidate selection policy: ‘We have gone for category rather than ability. We're looking for more women.

Labour may not be able to exploit one of the Tories’ biggest weaknesses – but that doesn’t mean others won’t

From our UK edition

Here at Coffee House Towers, we frequently point out the risks with the Tories' pledge to keep on increasing health spending in real terms.  As I suggested last week, the two main problems are that it plays up the Brownite idea that spending is a good thing in itself, and it could force the Tories into a position from which they can't row back in government.  Now, in a acerbic article in the Guardian - in which he describes Tory policy as "an incoherent mishmash of ideas designed by focus group" - Larry Elliot kicks off by highlighting the confusion the Tory line creates: "On Tuesday night David Cameron warned that Labour's mismanagement of the public finances meant Britain might default on its debts.

The Tories have been put on the back foot, but don’t expect permanent damage

From our UK edition

There's plenty to be sceptical about with this #welovetheNHS Twitter campaign - not least the manner in which it's falsely polarising the debate into "lovers" or "haters", given that 140-character "tweets" hardly allow for nuanced arguments.  But, as Fraser pointed out last night, there's little doubting that it's a spot of good luck for Gordon Brown: a campaign by the left, for the left, which he managed to seize on with uncharacteristic speed.   Indeed, Brown beat David Cameron to the punch for perhaps the first time in months, and has put the Tory leader on the defensive.  Hence Cameron's blog post last night, which set out his own #reasonsforlovingtheNHSbutstillwantingittoimprove, so to speak.

Cameron plans to cut ministers’ pay

From our UK edition

Poor old Alan Duncan might have to survive on emergency rations. The Guardian reports that David Cameron is planning to cut ministerial pay if the Tories win the next election. Here are the details: ‘David Cameron is planning to make his ministers take significant salary cuts if he forms the next government, senior sources have told the Guardian. The Conservative party high command have calculated that if they are to push through cuts in public services, their politicians have to show they are prepared to "take a financial hit". A pay cut would also help the party as it attempts to renegotiate public sector pay deals. One senior Tory said a cut as high as 25% was being discussed, which would cost figures such as William Hague and George Osborne nearly £20,000 a year.