Uk politics

With the Czech constitutional court’s decision removing one of the final barriers to ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, attention is turning to what the Tories will do next. What we know they won’t do is hold a post-ratification referendum. This is prompting cries of betrayal from some. But this charge is unfair. Cameron’s “cast-iron pledge” has been overtaken by events — the treaty will already have been ratified by the time Cameron comes to power and so a referendum would only be demonstrative. This is one of those instances where an analogy can be instructive.

The Conservative leadership claims that a British Bill of Rights would serve to guide judges in interpreting the European Convention on Human Rights and so give Britain some discretion in how the rights which exist in the Charter — many of which are vague — are applied in this country. But in the new issue of Standpoint the eminent legal commentator Joshua Rozenberg reports that Dominic Grieve, the shadow justice secretary and a firm supporter of the ECHR, thinks that a British Bill of Rights would only be introduced towards the end of a Cameron first term and might well not be on the statue book by the end of it. Grieve tells Rozenberg, "I would like to think we could do it in the course of a parliament".

Tim Montgomerie has the scoop that the Tories will not hold a referendum on Lisbon if it has been ratified by the next general election. A vote on Lisbon once it had been ratified would only have had moral force so the Tory policy shift is not a betrayal of Euro-scepticism. However, the party will seek a ‘manifesto mandate’ to begin negotiations to repatriate powers. The challenge for the Tories is to persuade the other member states to allow Britain to take back powers.  As Tim says, the Tories will need a savvy negotiator with strong Euro-sceptic instincts to take charge of this process. To my mind, Theresa Villiers, a former MEP who knows her way around the European system and is a strong Euro-sceptic, would be ideal for this task.

Just when the US administration thought it had turned a corner in Afghanistan by persuading Hamid Karzai to allow a run-off in the presidential elections, things look uncertain again. Having returned from a trip to India, President Karzai's election rival Abdullah Abdullah looks set to announce he will boycott next week's second round of voting. Such a decision could either be the prelude to a resolution of the crisis, or set the stage for political crisis. It is more likely going to be the latter.

In his column, James asks the key question about Tony Blair’s candidature for President of the European Council: what would it do for the Tories and Britain’s foreign policy. William Hague clearly thinks it would be a bad thing and has been lobbying against Blair’s candidacy.   The Shadow Foreign Secretary is letting his anti-EU, anti-Labour views cloud his judgement. Let me explain. If the Tories win, Labour will be in the doldrums, a shadow of its former self. The idea that the party will mount a challenge to a Conservative government by rallying around an EU-focused Tony Blair is unbelievable. Romani Prodi may have jumped from an EU job to the top of Italian politics, but Britain works differently. Peter Mandelson is the exception, Roy Jenkins the rule.