Uk politics

Thursday

David Blackburn

Labour must recognise the scale of its defeat

From our UK edition

Will Straw was on the news this afternoon, arguing that Labour had lost only a small "doughnut" of seats around London and in the south. As John Rentoul notes, some doughnut: Labour was annihilated in England. David Cameron’s swift reform of the Conservative party was built on recognising the scale of defeat. Few on the Labour side have yet done so, including David Miliband, who clings to the spurious consolation that it could have been worse. In a piece for the Guardian, John Denham is candid about a share of the vote that was markedly lower than John Major’s in 1997: ‘Most obvious is just how catastrophic our defeat was.

David Blackburn

Hammond: Crossrail will stay

From our UK edition

Philip Hammond was quietly brilliant as Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury and it would have been a travesty if he was excluded from the Cabinet. Having avoided assuming the mantle of ‘the most hated man in England’, Hammond has been handed the poisoned Transport brief. A popular saying about frying and pans and fires comes to mind as he will tasked with renewing Britain’s congested roads, baleful airports and Victorian railways amid austerity. Still, he could have been sent to Northern Ireland. Hammond’s first announcement has been to confirm George Osborne’s pledge that the £16bn Crossrail project will not be cut.

David Blackburn

The death knell for Unionism in Ulster?

From our UK edition

Last Thursday was a dreadful night for the Unionists in Ulster. Six months of unionist divisions, dissent and defections culminated in a near decimation of the Unionist vote. There was an 8.7 percent against the DUP, whose self-induced crisis was embodied by Peter Robinson’s humiliating defeat. The Ulster Unionists have been eradicated. Slyvia Hermon was one of many to resist Sir Reg Empey’s pact with the Tories and overall there was a 2.7 percent swing against the party. Infighting will prevail. The anti-Conservative Michael McGimpsey is apparently in the mix to succeed Empey. Blame must be apportioned to the Conservatives’ efforts to create a non-sectarian centre-right alliance in Ulster.

David Blackburn

Miliband storms ahead. Whither Ed Balls?

From our UK edition

Amazingly, given his penchant to procrastinate, David Miliband’s leadership bid is flying. High profile endorsements fly-in – former defence secretary and arch-Blairite John Hutton is the latest. Miliband is out on the stump, canvassing the opinions of former voters. Ed Balls, by contrast, looks tentative and there is no doubt he’s losing ground.   Iain Martin has an excellent post on the Labour leadership contenders and concludes that Miliband is not yet the complete package. I agree. Bananas aside, Miliband’s chief problem is that he expresses himself in meaningless abstractions. Think Tanks and cosmopolitans adore the terminology, voters don’t – The Big Society was A Big Flop.

Peter Hoskin

Reform? Looks more like gerrymandering

From our UK edition

Much ado about this 55 percent proposal – whereby that proportion of the House, rather than just over 50 percent, would be required to vote down a government – and rightly so.  But, as so often, Iain Martin says all that needs to be said.  Here's a snippet from his must-read post: "It is rather stretching things to try and present this piece of proposed gerrymandering as 'Political Reform.' It is actually designed to ensure that even a walk-out of the whole Lib Dem parliamentary group couldn't actually bring down this government. This would weaken parliament and strengthen the hand of the executive considerably - when it is only weeks since both parties were talking of doing the opposite.

Peter Hoskin

The emergency Budget will be the true measure of this coalition

From our UK edition

So who agrees with the economists forecasting that VAT will rise - perhaps to 20 percent - this year? I'm not normally one for making predictions but, as far as I can tell, this one seems pretty likely. Various politicos have been leaning towards this measure over the past year. And the new government will need quick ways to plug the fiscal gap while spending cuts filter slowly through the system. Problem is, it might make Vince Cable's silly attacks during the election look even sillier in retrospect. Oh well. This opens up the wider question of how the coalition will rebalance our public finances. The Lib Dems have said they'd do it only via spending cuts, while the Tories were aiming for a 80:20 split between cuts and tax rises.

Daniel Korski

Let the reforms begin today

From our UK edition

David Cameron and Nick Clegg want their coalition government to be seen as a reforming government. They can begin showing their seriousness today, as they fill out the junior ministerial posts in their government. Rather than appoint a slew of ministers, parliamentary secretaries etc, they should keep to one Secretary of State and one junior minister for each Department. Don’t listen to me; take the advice of such radicals as Sir John Major and Lord Douglas Hurd, who wrote in The Times in June 2009: "There are too many ministers. The total could be reduced by about a third. Only Cabinet ministers need parliamentary private secretaries. The Treasury should remain with two ministers, both in the Cabinet ....

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson

Reasons for real hope amid the misplaced optimism

From our UK edition

Today's civil partnership between two men who look uncannily like each other will, I suspect, be remembered as a festival of misplaced optimism. Cameron overdid it a little, making out that this was his ideal outcome. It seems rude to point it out, but there were two podiums in that rose garden because he flunked the election (see Tim Montgomerie's superlative report for details). The cost of his failure to win is having to do a deal with Nick Clegg. The country didn't vote for a new politics: the Lib Dems did worse than last time, so polls show most voters would have preferred Cameron to have formed a minority government. This is an alliance designed to stop Cameron fighting an election again soon, and repeating last week's jarring experience.

Peter Hoskin

David Miliband kicks off his “unity” leadership campaign

From our UK edition

Surprise, surprise – David Miliband has just announced his candidacy for the Labour leadership, and there wasn't a banana in sight.  His address only lasted a few minutes, but it contained a number of hints about how, I suspect, he will look to run his campaign.  The emphasis was on newness, natch – "a new era, new dangers, new possibilities, new opportunities" – but also on unity.  He praised the leadership of Gordon Brown; claimed he was looking forward to a "warm, generous and comradely" contest; and said that he would go on a tour of non-Labour constituencies to "listen" to the public.  All of which was meant to reinforce one impression: that he would take Labour beyond the fierce tribalism of the Blair and Brown years.

Peter Hoskin

The story of the Tory campaign

From our UK edition

If you read only one thing today, then make a cup of tea, sit in a comfy armchair, and make sure it's Tim Montgomerie's 7,000-word review of the Conservative election campaign.  Tim has opened up his address book and spoken with many of the main players in the Tory operation - and the result isn't all that flattering.  Here's a summary passage which gives a sense of it all: "For a period, the 'Big Society' was put at the heart of the campaign. Amazingly, the Big Society was never tested in focus groups and it failed on the doorstep. One leading adviser to the campaign complained of a 'cavalier' approach to research. 'They latched on to research that backed their views and ignored any research that challenged it.

James Forsyth

The coalition passes the easy bit with flying colours

From our UK edition

The first press conference of this new era was a definite success. The body language between Cameron and Clegg was good. When Clegg called Cameron ‘Dave’ it sounded very natural. Cameron’s argument was that the two parties could have come to a confidence and supply agreement but that would have been ‘uninspiring’ and could have broken down at any time. What the Prime Minister didn’t mention is that the coalition agreement ties the Lib Dems into cuts as well as providing stable government. Clegg was excellent, as in the debates he is helped by being a little bit taller than Cameron. He defused any tension when Andy Bell reminded Cameron that he had dismissed him as his favourite joke with a bit of humour.

James Forsyth

The coalition agreement at a glance

From our UK edition

I have just had a quick read through the coalition agreement and a few things jumped out at me. First, this new government will not abolish Lord Mandelson. The agreement states that while the parties are committed to a wholly or mainly elected Lords ‘likely there will be a grandfathering system for current Peers’.   The Tory manifesto commits a Conservative government to introducing ‘new rules so that legislation referring specifically to England, or to England and Wales, cannot be enacted without the consent of MPs representing constituencies of those countries.’ The coalition agreement has watered this commitment down significantly. The new government will merely ‘establish a commission to consider the ‘West Lothian question’.

Peter Hoskin

Sense reigns, as the Tories redefine their health spending pledge

From our UK edition

Here's another sensible development for the day: the Tories have diluted their pledge to keep on increasing health spending.  As the FT's Alex Barker reports, the Lib-Con political settlement is going to contain these words: 'We will increase NHS spending in every year of the parliament.' So what's the difference?  Well, the previous pledge was to increase health spending in real terms each year - whereas this new formulation suggests that cash spending will increase, but that there will be cuts once you account for inflation.  Sure, it doesn't smash the ringfence down completely.  But it's still progress so far as the fiscal crisis is concerned.  Score one up for Nick Clegg & Co.

The Spectator-Leader

Victory! | 12 May 2010

From our UK edition

This magazine had hoped for a Conservative government. We have what is arguably the next best thing: a government led by David Cameron but supported by some political mercenaries put in the positions where they inflict the least harm — and reform-minded Tories in positions where they can do most good. The strategy is fairly clear: give Lib Dems more Cabinet crowns and chauffeurs than they could have dreamed of. Tie them in for five years, and have them defend Tory policy on the airwaves. And then, crucially, let them share the blame for the Irish-style spending cuts to come. Three appointments make this government, on balance, a victory for Conservatism.

Peter Hoskin

Iain Duncan Smith’s appointment is a triumph for the welfare agenda

From our UK edition

Of all the Cabinet positions announced so far, one is more eyecatching, and holds more promise, than all the rest: Iain Duncan Smith has been appointed Secretary of State for Work and Pensions.  Through his work with the Centre for Social Justice, IDS has shown that he not only knows his way intimately around the welfare brief, but cares deeply about it too.  The hope now is that this will energise the Tories' welfare-to-work policies, and also put the CSJ's crucial benefit reforms on the government's agenda.  On a day when unemployment has risen once again, this may prove to be one of the best decisions that Prime Minister Cameron ever makes.

James Forsyth

The new power broker

From our UK edition

Ed Llewellyn, David Cameron’s chief of staff, is going to be one of the most influential people in Downing Street these next few years. He has already played a crucial role in the negotiation between the Tories and the Lib Dems; having worked for Paddy Ashdown in Bosnia and being friends with Nick Clegg’s wife from his Brussels days he has good relations with the Lib Dems.   Llewellyn has extensive links across government and it is telling that Sir Peter Ricketts, who was appointed as the national security advisor this morning, has worked with Llewellyn twice. He was Hong Kong desk officer at the Foreign and Commonwealth Office when Llewellyn was in Chris Patten’s office in Hong Kong.

David Blackburn

Who is missing?

From our UK edition

The Cabinet is taking shape, admittedly with one or two surprises and not all of them good ones. There is still a way to go, even though action has already been taken on the NI increase. I understand that Michael Gove will be education secretary, which obviously leaves the hugely impressive David Laws to find another brief. Work and Pensions is a possibility, a job that has also been earmarked for the equally impressive Philip Hammond. There is a very obvious lack of women – Sarah Teather is highly regarded on the Lib Dem side, probably more so than her counterparts on the Tory side. I’ve heard rumours that she’s possibly headed for Transport or Communities. Though, of course, nothing is certain. So, who has lost out?

David Blackburn

Game on for the Labour leadership

From our UK edition

The Coalition Cabinet remains unformed as yet - it's rumoured that Chris Huhne is going to environment and Michael Gove and David Laws are out doing one another in the 'I've no idea where I'll be' stakes. All the sounds are very positive but the contents of would-be ministers' statements are careful, as doubtless final decisions are being made. The Labour leadership has its own spot on Westminster's backdrop of delicate intrigue. Yesterday, Andy Burnham positioned himself as the candidate of sense, opposing Lib-Lab talks and acknowledging that Labour needed to reorganise itself in the aftermath of defeat. The preferred path to renewal is clearer this morning. Alan Johnson has declared he will not stand and has backed David Miliband.