Uk politics

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Another fight looms for Cameron over votes for prisoners

From our UK edition

Prisoner voting is back on the agenda. The European Court of Human Rights has rejected the British government’s appeal and declared that the coalition has six months to draw up proposals to change the law.   David Cameron now has to decide whether to ignore the Strasbourg Court or go against the will of his MPs, who voted overwhelmingly to oppose giving prisoners the vote in response to the court’s initial decision. In many ways, ignoring the court is the safer option. Tory MPs aren’t inclined to back down on this issue and if Cameron tried to make them he would create a lot of ill-will and take an awful kicking from the press.

Peter Hoskin

Why we should be concerned about debt interest

From our UK edition

There's an interesting post by Éoin Clarke on debt interest doing the rounds. It originally appeared on his blog, but was soon commandeered by LabourList — and little wonder why. Dr Clarke's point is a perceptive and striking one. Debt interest, he says, is lower now than it was under John Major. The implication is that when George Osborne rattles on about the money blown on just "servicing our debt," we should take it with an almighty heap of salt. It's not, perhaps, as bad as all that. Or, rather, that's one way of looking at it. There are other ways, which I would list thus:   1) Going beyond 2011.

James Forsyth

A question of access

From our UK edition

When a Prime Minister gets his facts wrong as spectacularly as David Cameron did yesterday with his comment that  ‘only one black person went to Oxford last year’ everyone wonders why. Now, the simplest explanation is that it was a straight cock-up. One of the pitfalls of these Cameron Direct events is that errors can come out. Another theory doing the rounds this morning is that Cameron is giving a speech on immigration later this week, with some tough language in it, and so was trying too hard to show that he is anti-racist. But whatever the explanation, Cameron needs to be careful about how he approaches the university access issue.

Peter Hoskin

Nick Clegg meets Gillian Duffy

From our UK edition

There's a new equation in British politics, and it's one that Nick Clegg came up against this morning: Politician + Rochdale = Gillian Duffy. The Deputy Prime Minister was quizzed by Gordon Brown's unassuming nemesis during his visit to the town earlier — and the results are in the video above. For what it's worth, he did fairly well, emphasising the pressing need to tackle Labour's poisonous fiscal legacy.

Peter Hoskin

Panic over? Perhaps not…

From our UK edition

Is the inflation panic over? After rising for five consecutive months, CPI inflation went down by a 0.4 percentage points in March, to 4.0 per cent, taking the City by surprise. RPI inflation also went down, by 0.2 percentage points. The numbercrunchers at the Office for National Statistics put it down, largely, to a fall in food and drink prices. The cost of fruit is 2.7 per cent down on last March. The cost of bread and cereals, 2.6 per cent. Yet we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves. While this will certainly reduce the short-term pressure on the Bank to increase rates — as well as on the nation's pocketbooks — one month does not maketh a trend. The inflation debate in Britain is always carried out in the absence of a key metric: inflation forecasts.

Monday

James Forsyth

Why the Vickers Review won’t harm the City’s global competitiveness

From our UK edition

The headline measure in the Vickers Review—the need for a ring fence between retail and investment banking—should not harm the City’s global competitiveness as it only applies to banks with a UK retail operation. For everyone else, Vickers would leave London as a relatively good place to do business: far more certain than Hong Kong and less restrictive than New York once the new Dodd-Frank regulations are in place. In Conservatives circles tonight, there is a quiet confidence that the government will be able to accept the Vickers Review in full when it reports in the autumn.

Fraser Nelson

Blame the schools system, not Oxford

From our UK edition

The most extraordinary row has broken out after the Prime Minister appeared to suggest that Oxford University has a racist admissions policy. He today said that, "I saw figures the other day that showed that only one black person went to Oxford last year. I think that is disgraceful." But the university has since hit back, pointing out that, "the figure quoted by the Prime Minister is incorrect and highly misleading — it only refers to UK undergraduates of black Caribbean origin for a single year of entry, when in fact that year Oxford admitted 41 UK undergraduates with black backgrounds.

Peter Hoskin

What was Brown’s biggest mistake?

From our UK edition

“I have to accept my responsibility.” Who would have thought that Gordon Brown would ever breathe those words, let alone breathe them to a conference in America over the weekend? Our former PM has, it's true, suggested that his regulatory system was inadequate to the financial crash before now. But here he was much more explicit: “We set up the Financial Services Authority believing the problem would come from the failure of an individual institution. That was the big mistake. We didn’t understand just how entangled things were.” And that's event before he got onto the "responsibility" bit. I'll repeat it, just in case it didn't sink in the first time: “I have to accept my responsibility.

Peter Hoskin

Cameron takes it to the councils

From our UK edition

Ignore what your council is telling you. So says no less a personage than the Prime Minister of our country, speaking at one of his freewheelin' roadshow events this afternoon. Cameron may have been referring specifically to the red tape being wrapped around Royal Wedding street parties, but it's still a pretty pugnacious point for a PM to make. Here's the full quotation, courtesy of the superb PoliticsHome: “I hope people are able to join in and celebrate and I am very much saying today that if people want to have a street party, don't listen to people who say 'it is all bureaucracy and health and safety and you cant do it.

James Forsyth

The Vickers Review, acceptable to both halves of the coaltion

From our UK edition

The Vickers Review into the future of banking appears to have prevented a possible coalition row. The Tories and the Liberal Democrats have had different views on what to do about the banks, with the Lib Dems keener to break up the banks come what may and the Tories more worried about preserving the competitiveness of the City.   At the very start of the coalition there was a rather unseemly turf war between Cable and Osborne about who controlled policy on the banks, and many have expected a row to break out when he review reported. But, as we predicted on Coffee House back in February, the review has come up with a solution acceptable to both sides.

Peter Hoskin

Beyond the frontline

From our UK edition

Labour's cartography department has been hard at work all weekend to produce this. It is, lest you haven't heard Yvette Cooper today, an "interactive web-map" of the job losses announced by police forces so far, all across the country. You can interact with it in ways that include clicking to view a larger version. So far as web campaigning goes, this is probably fertile ground for the Opposition. No one likes the idea of more crime — and "more crime" is often conflated with "fewer bobbies" in the public debate. Yet Labour's point is diluted, somewhat, by one simple fact: that their former Home Secretary refused to guarantee that police numbers wouldn't fall under his party.

Sunday

Peter Hoskin

Meanwhile, in America…

From our UK edition

We really oughtn't let the weekend pass without some mention of political events across the Atlantic. As you've probably heard, a US government shutdown was avoided on Friday evening, and all thanks to a budget compromise which saw Barack Obama slash a cool $38 billion from his spending plans. Although the debate over who has credited or discredited themselves is still ongoing, it's striking that the Republicans — urged on by the Tea Party corps — achieved around two-thirds of the cuts that they demanded. Yet disaster, or at least the prospect of it, has still not been averted. The Tea Party has already claimed several fiscal scalps along the way — and the next target for their administrations is the impending debate over America's debt ceiling.

Peter Hoskin

Lamb volunteers for the slaughter

From our UK edition

We'll try to get the video later, but, for now, a transcript of Norman Lamb's appearance on the Politics Show will have to do (UPDATE: video added above). Here we had a very unusual political moment: an assistant whip, and adviser to Nick Clegg, not only calling for changes to government policy, but also threatening to resign should they not happen. His main argument was that the NHS reforms should be dealt with more slowly: "I think it would be a crying shame if that really important principle [giving GPs more power and responsibility] was lost because we rushed the reform process and got it wrong. My real concern is the financial risk of doing it too quickly because then you lose services, patient care suffers...

Peter Hoskin

Lansley fights back, sorta

From our UK edition

Pause, listen, engage and ... push back. That just about sums up Andrew Lansley's article for the Sunday Express today, as well as the government's general effort to reconstruct and repackage its shaky NHS reforms. Which is to say, the Health Secretary makes sure to mix reassurance ("There is no more important institution in this country than the NHS") with resolve ("The NHS is not some kind of museum") for his Sunday sermon. He dwells on the failures of the Labour years, particularly the proliferation of bureaucrats ahead of doctors and nurses.

Saturday

Peter Hoskin

The Treasury Select Committee gets prescriptive

From our UK edition

Andrew Tyrie promised that the Treasury Select Committee would be an assertive, insistent body under his stewardship — and he hasn't disappointed so far. The committee's recent evidence sessions have been fiery affairs, particularly by the usual standards of these things. And today they have released the result: an extensive and prescriptive report into last month's Budget. Several of the report's observations are worth noting down — not least that advance briefing of the Budget is "corrosive of good government," and that "almost all the evidence received [about the government's Enterprise Zones] is unsure about the extent to which they will contribute to UK growth.

Daniel Korski

Unite chief blames MI5 for protest violence

From our UK edition

Sometimes, just when you think that the craziest left-wing ideologues have gone off to tend to their gardens, up one pops. Meet Len McCluskey, the head of Unite, who tells The Times's Rachel Sylvester (£) that Fidel Castro has been a "heroic" leader of his people. That would be the same Cuban dictator who jails journalists and trade unionists. Odd choice of hero. But it gets better. McCluskey seems to think that MI5 encouraged violence at the last anti-cuts protest. I kid you not: "Mr McCluskey believes that the secret services, in particular MI5, may have been working under cover to encourage the violence as part of a conspiracy to undermine the peaceful message of the march.

Fraser Nelson

Osborne needs to make his case for growth

From our UK edition

The Guardian have an odd story today. “Business chiefs who backed cuts now doubt UK growth,” runs the headline — suggesting that these sinners are now being confronted with the error of their own ideology. Who are the business chiefs? We have Archie Norman, the retired head of Asda, now part-time chairman of ITV. He “said the government's growth targets were too optimistic”. Set aside the fact that the government doesn’t make growth targets now, and has subcontracted that the Office for Budget Responsibility. Where is the connection between growth downgrades and cuts? In the imagination of The Guardian, I suspect.

Peter Hoskin

Doing the splits

From our UK edition

When is a split not a split? When it's a subsidiary, of course. We learn this morning that the Vickers Banking Commission will not recommend a complete, Glass-Steagall-style separation of retail and investment activities. But it will advise that banks erect some sort of barrier between the two, to ensure that everyday savers' (and taxpayers') cash isn't risked by the Masters of the Universe. Specifically, it will propose that banks create subsidiaries out of their investment arms. Those subsidiaries could then go bust without, in theory, affecting the retail half of the equation. As Robert Peston explains, there are two ways of implementing these subsidiaries — and the Vickers Commission is expected to hurl them both out into the realm of public debate.

Friday

Mats Persson

Europe, and the UK, should be much more proactive about Portugal

From our UK edition

As Portugal bites the dust – following Ireland and Greece in asking for an EU bail-out – the most important question is still not being asked by EU policy-makers, or by the British government for that matter: will a bail-out actually solve any of Portugal’s problems? The simple answer is, it won’t. Asking the European Central Bank to take on more junk bonds, or piling more taxpayer-backed loans on Portugal’s already heavily indebted economy is not a long term solution. Ireland and Greece have already sought to renegotiate their bail-out terms as they are struggling to grow fast enough to repay their EU/IMF loans (ECB rate increases like the one we saw yesterday are unlikely to help).

David Blackburn

How might the MoD get round its spending settlement?

From our UK edition

The Ministry of Defence is Whitehall’s last monolith. Charged with the nation’s defence, it is powerful enough to challenge the Treasury. As Pete notes, there are signs that it’s trying to defer (if not avoid) the cuts laid out the punishing strategic defence and security review. It has many ways of doing this. Obviously it can use political pressure because troops are deployed in Afghanistan and Libya. But there’s also a neat accounting step that allows the MoD can transfer costs directly to the Treasury. You may recall that the Budget contained a £700m increase for ‘single use military expenditure’ (SUME) in 2011-2012.