Uk politics

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

Osborne needs to make his case for growth

The Guardian have an odd story today. “Business chiefs who backed cuts now doubt UK growth,” runs the headline — suggesting that these sinners are now being confronted with the error of their own ideology. Who are the business chiefs? We have Archie Norman, the retired head of Asda, now part-time chairman of ITV. He “said the government's growth targets were too optimistic”. Set aside the fact that the government doesn’t make growth targets now, and has subcontracted that the Office for Budget Responsibility. Where is the connection between growth downgrades and cuts? In the imagination of The Guardian, I suspect.

Peter Hoskin

Doing the splits

When is a split not a split? When it's a subsidiary, of course. We learn this morning that the Vickers Banking Commission will not recommend a complete, Glass-Steagall-style separation of retail and investment activities. But it will advise that banks erect some sort of barrier between the two, to ensure that everyday savers' (and taxpayers') cash isn't risked by the Masters of the Universe. Specifically, it will propose that banks create subsidiaries out of their investment arms. Those subsidiaries could then go bust without, in theory, affecting the retail half of the equation. As Robert Peston explains, there are two ways of implementing these subsidiaries — and the Vickers Commission is expected to hurl them both out into the realm of public debate.

Friday

Mats Persson

Europe, and the UK, should be much more proactive about Portugal

As Portugal bites the dust – following Ireland and Greece in asking for an EU bail-out – the most important question is still not being asked by EU policy-makers, or by the British government for that matter: will a bail-out actually solve any of Portugal’s problems? The simple answer is, it won’t. Asking the European Central Bank to take on more junk bonds, or piling more taxpayer-backed loans on Portugal’s already heavily indebted economy is not a long term solution. Ireland and Greece have already sought to renegotiate their bail-out terms as they are struggling to grow fast enough to repay their EU/IMF loans (ECB rate increases like the one we saw yesterday are unlikely to help).

David Blackburn

How might the MoD get round its spending settlement?

The Ministry of Defence is Whitehall’s last monolith. Charged with the nation’s defence, it is powerful enough to challenge the Treasury. As Pete notes, there are signs that it’s trying to defer (if not avoid) the cuts laid out the punishing strategic defence and security review. It has many ways of doing this. Obviously it can use political pressure because troops are deployed in Afghanistan and Libya. But there’s also a neat accounting step that allows the MoD can transfer costs directly to the Treasury. You may recall that the Budget contained a £700m increase for ‘single use military expenditure’ (SUME) in 2011-2012.

Freddy Gray

How about reintroducing conscription?

The American academic and foreign policy realist Stephen Walt has put an interesting idea on his blog: would re-introducing the draft make America less interventionist? Perhaps it would, and perhaps there’s a good case to be made for doing the same in Britain. Calling for a return to conscription might sound like a silly right-wing trope, but it makes sense from an anti-war perspective: we might be less eager to send our soldiers to fight and die in distant conflicts if there were the slightest possibility that we might have to go, too. I’m not sure I agree, though. It’s not as if national service prevented war in the past. We happily shipped off young men to Korea in the 1950s, for instance. Maybe compulsory military training only encourages bellicosity.

Peter Hoskin

More demands on George Osborne

Is the defence budget the most chaotic in all Whitehall? George Osborne said as much last October — and he's still dealing with its hellish intricacies now. The main problem, as so often in military matters, is one of overcommitment. Thanks to various accounting ruses on Labour's part, large parts of the MoD's costs were hidden in the long grass of the future. It was buy now, pay later — with Brown doing the buying bit, and the coalition doing the paying. The number that William Hague put on it last year was £38 billion. The MoD was spending £38 billion more, over this decade, than had been budgeted. Even after the cuts, elements of that overspend were likely to remain. Which is why this story from today's Telegraph is worth reading in full.

Thursday

Selena Gray

An obstacle to the Big Society

Toby Young’s piece in the latest issue of the Spectator magazine captures one of the problems facing the Big Society. It’s not that people don’t want to donate their time to fill in the cracks left by the cuts – it’s that they’re often blocked from doing so. Toby highlights the case of Kensal Rise Library, which a local group of volunteers had hoped to save from the axe. But local council chiefs have hardly greeted their plan for running the library with enthusiasm. As Toby puts it: “On Monday, the council produced its considered response in the form of a 178-page ‘supplement’ to … well, it doesn’t say. In addition to having no table of contents and no index, it has no title.

Peter Hoskin

Osborne’s credit card fraud

Well, David Cameron is doing his part to boost the Spanish economy — by EasyJetting to the country with SamCam to celebrate her 40th Birthday. But what about Spain's peninsular cousins, the Portuguese? They were, more or less, the subject of George Osborne's speech to the British Chambers of Commerce conference earlier — but not how they might have hoped. The chancellor didn't dwell on the prospect of British help for their stricken economy, but he did cite Portugal as a kind of worst case scenario. "Today of all days we can see the risks that would face Britain," he said, "if we were not dealing with our debts and paying off our national credit card." Ed Balls has since struck out against Osborne's argument, describing  it as "scaremongering".

David Blackburn

Labour fights back in Pickles’ war on propaganda sheets

Most councils publish a newspaper – usually delivered to your door and instantly discarded. The government has decided that these freesheets are both a waste of public money and detrimental to local newspapers competing in the open market; the accusation that they are predominantly used for propaganda purposes has also been made. Labour opposed the revisions to the Code of Recommended Practice on Local Authority Publicity, which might suggest that these publications are too valuable to their councils. However, some of the red camp’s objections were valid.

Peter Hoskin

The Portuguese fallout

How much are we in for? That is the question that springs most readily to mind after Portugal's request for fiscal aid from the EU. And, sadly, the answer is difficult to work out. The figures being spread around range from £3 billion to £6 billion, with valuations in between. But, really, it depends on how much of the €80 billion package is agreed to by European finance ministers, and which lending mechanisms are used. The European Stability Fund, the EU's emergency fund and the IMF's pot of gold all have differing levels of UK involvement. If our country does end up making a significant contribution to any bailout package, then the government will certainly have some explaining to do.

Fraser Nelson

Reinforcing the schools revolution

There is extraordinary news today, suggesting that the Academies revolution is continuing apace. What was a trickle under the Labour years is turning into a flood. This time last year just 1 in 16 state secondaries had 'Academy' status: that is, operationally independent within the state sector. Now, it is 1 in 6. By Christmas, it should be 1 in 3. And by the next election, the majority of state secondary schools in Britain — about 1,600 — should have turned into Academies. Had Gove suggested such an expansion before the election, he would have been laughed at. The last time the Conservatives sought to give state schools independence was under Kenneth Baker, when just 50 availed themselves of such freedoms in three years. Now, freedom appears to be contagious.

Wednesday

James Forsyth

The consequences of political abuse

Nick Clegg’s interview with Jemima Khan (née Goldsmith), in which he admits to crying regularly to music, is already coming in for predictable mockery. But the point that Clegg makes about how his job is affecting his kids is worth dwelling on.   Clegg is not the only coalition minister to fret about this. Sarah Vine, Michael Gove’s wife, wrote earlier this year about how she worried about the psychological effect on her children of people verbally assaulting her husband in front of them. During the Labour leadership contest, Ed Balls, for all his faults, spoke movingly about his concern over how he would protect his kids from what was said about him and Yvette Cooper.

Jonathan Jones

Grammar schools aren’t an answer to the social mobility problem

With all the talk about social mobility, it was inevitable that those who believe grammar schools were the doorway to opportunity would wade into the debate. The most prominent of these interventions came yesterday from David Davis, who said: “The hard data shows that the post-war improvement in social mobility, and its subsequent decline, coincided exactly with the arrival, and then the destruction, of the grammar school system. This is the clearest example of the unintended consequence of a purportedly egalitarian policy we have seen in modern times.” The “hard data” Davis refers to is this 2005 study by Jo Blanden, Paul Gregg and Stephen Machin for the LSE and the Sutton Trust.

Peter Hoskin

Whither the NHS Bill?

Reassurance — that's what the happy trio of David Cameron, Nick Clegg and Andrew Lansley sought to emit during their NHS event earlier. And reassurance not just about where the coalition is taking the health service (although there was plenty of that), but also about the "listening exercise" they are engaging in now. Although all three men suggested that the broad scope of the NHS reforms would remain — decentralisation, greater responsibilities for GPs, and all that — they also hinted that "substantive" changes will be made to the Bill as it stands. As for what those changes will look like, there were few specifics. Yet it did sound as though the coalition is dwelling on the recommendations made by the health select committee yesterday.

James Forsyth

Planning for a reshuffle?

David Cameron is determined to get away from the idea of an annual Cabinet cull. He has repeatedly told friends that he doesn’t want to reshuffle the Cabinet until March 2012. But The Times, the most pro-coalition paper, today uses its leader column (£) to call on Cameron to reshuffle straight after the May elections. I suspect that Cameron will only reshuffle the Cabinet, as opposed to the junior ranks, if AV passes. But there are a few Tory junior ministers who would impress as Cabinet ministers. Greg Clark and Nick Herbert, two members of the pre-election shadow Cabinet who missed out on the Cabinet because of coalition, have both performed well as junior ministers.

James Forsyth

Nick Clegg was claiming that the NHS reforms were the Lib Dems’ idea just three months ago

Ahead of this morning’s Cameron, Clegg, Lansley event on the NHS, it is worth reminding ourselves of what Nick Clegg was saying about these reforms back at the start of the year. On January 23rd, he went on the Andrew Marr show and had this exchange: 'ANDREW MARR: Huge change to the NHS just coming down the line. Was that in the Liberal Democrat manifesto? NICK CLEGG: Actually funnily enough it was. Indeed it was. We were one of the primary critics in opposition of what we felt was a top … ANDREW MARR: (over) I don't remember you saying you were going to get rid of Primary Care Trusts and pass it down to GPs. NICK CLEGG: We certainly said we were going to get rid of Primary Care Trusts.

David Blackburn

Burying the dead

Lockerbie is back in vogue. The Telegraph reports that Mi5 has ‘conclusive evidence’ that Moussa Koussa was ‘directing operational and intelligence gathering activities against Libyan dissidents’ and organising support for terror groups. Koussa is expected to meet with Scottish prosecutors later this week to discuss the Lockerbie bombing. Also, the Libyan rebels have pledged to assist British security services investigate Gaddafi’s sponsorship of terrorism, particularly the IRA. Anything that brings Gaddafi and his most murderous henchmen to justice will give solace to victims. But no amount of water can wash away the grubby circumstances of al-Megrahi’s release.

Peter Hoskin

Winners and losers | 6 April 2011

The birds chirruping in the sunlight clearly didn't get Ed Balls's memo. Otherwise they'd know that today is "Black Wednesday," the day when the coalition's tax and benefit policies swoop in to leave the average household some £200 a year worse off. This is the message that the shadow chancellor is broadcasting this morning, be it on Radio 4 or in a post for Labour Uncut. His claim is that the coalition is — by going "too far, too fast" on the deficit — merely squeezing the "squeezed middle" even more. Only that's not quite the full picture. The Treasury, for one, is pointing out that today's measures will actually leave 80 per cent of households better off. So who's got it right?

Tuesday

James Forsyth

Get ready for the Cameron, Clegg and Lansley NHS show

Get your guide to body language out for tomorrow morning Cameron, Clegg and Lansley will be doing a joint event on NHS reforms. The three men all have subtly different messages to get across and there are concerns in Tory circle that Clegg will use the occasion to present himself as the defender of the NHS against these Tory reforms. Cameron will be walking a tightrope at tomorrow’s event. He will have to show that he is listening, that this whole exercise is not a sham, but without abandoning the principles on which the reforms are based. Expect Cameron, who will only have arrived back in the country hours before the event, to emphasise his personal connections to the NHS as he tries to build support for the policy.

Selena Gray

The pros and cons of internships

For the last fortnight, I've been doing an internship at The Spectator. And having seen the furore over Nick Clegg's announcement today, I thought I'd give CoffeeHousers my take. Until I was 22, I'd never heard of internships: no one at my school (Aylwin Girls' School in Bermondsey) went on them. Most of us left school at sixteen, and the jobs we were aiming for were admin, hairdressing, childcare — or, in some cases, motherhood (and welfare). The idea of pupils spending summers doing internships to beef up their CVs was alien to me. If you wanted to work at the head office of a high street bank — which was my first job — then you just applied to a recruitment agency.