Uk politics

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Osborne to drop debt target to avoid ‘nightmare’ cuts

From our UK edition

George Osborne is in for a really rocky autumn to follow the dismal summer he's just survived as chancellor. The Times and the Guardian are both reporting this morning that the Chancellor is set to drop his key fiscal target of having public sector net debt as a proportion of GDP falling by 2015 as a result of higher government borrowing and lower tax receipts. Osborne has decided that the political fallout from abandoning this target, which he has long touted as a sign of the success of his policies, would be smaller than the 'nightmare' of further cuts, particularly the £10 billion cuts to the welfare budget.  Jonathan wrote in July about the approach of a 'hideous choice' for the Chancellor if growth downgrades continue.

Sebastian Payne

Boris Johnson wouldn’t quite carry Conservatives back into government

From our UK edition

If Boris Johnson was leader of the Conservative Party, would his presence reverse the party’s declining fortunes? This is the million dollar question on the mind of many Tories after the Mayor's summer of success. YouGov have attempted to provide an answer by putting two scenarios to the public for the next general election — one with David Cameron leading the Conservatives and the other with Boris. In a theoretical election with Boris as leader, more people stated they would vote Conservative, significantly reducing Labour's lead, which is at seven points under a Cameron-led election.

Tuesday

Isabel Hardman

Nick Clegg: I don’t think gay marriage opponents are bigots

From our UK edition

Nick Clegg is currently eating a Ben & Jerry's ice cream called 'Appley Ever After' with gay marriage campaigners celebrating the government's consultation on introducing civil marriage for same-sex couples. Things didn't go all that appley for the Deputy Prime Minister earlier today, though, when the Cabinet Office sent out what he later claimed was a draft of his speech that he was never going to give, which said: 'Continued trouble in the economy gives the bigots a stick to beat us with, as they demand we “postpone” the equalities agenda in order to deal with “the things people really care about”. As if pursuing greater equality and fixing the economy simply cannot happen at once.

Isabel Hardman

How a new whip saved a new minister from an embarrassing rebellion

From our UK edition

It was not the ideal first outing for a new minister at a committee approving new legislation. Justice Minister Helen Grant arrived at the committee considering two compensation schemes last night to discover Conservative backbenchers in uproar. None of the MPs had been able to get their hands on the explanatory notes for the legislation, which covers the Victims of Overseas Terrorism Compensation Scheme 2012 and the Criminal Injuries Compensation Scheme 2012. So they did not know, until they arrived at the evening meeting, that they would be expected to approve sweeping cuts to compensation for postmen attacked by dangerous dogs and other victims of crime.

Alan Brownjohn

America’s working women

From our UK edition

We know that the growth of women in work has been a significant driver of household income growth in the UK over the last 50 years. In fact, children are now most likely to grow up in poverty in male breadwinner households. Today’s publication of the annual snapshot of America’s middle class - The State of Working America – reveals a similar trend on the other side of the Atlantic. As Figure 1 shows, American families with women in work saw their family incomes rise from the early 1970s until the early 2000s. Conversely, families without a woman in work (both couples and single parents) did not. Figure 1.

Isabel Hardman

Picking the next Bank of England Governor

From our UK edition

Treasury questions is one of the more entertaining spectacles on offer in the Commons. There's the standard banter between George Osborne and Ed Balls - today we saw the Chancellor dub his opposite number 'the member for Unite west', with Ed Balls noting in his reply that at least he'd only been heckled by a few trade unionists rather than the entire Olympic stadium. There were new ministers to welcome too: Greg Clark received such a warm cheer that he joked he felt 'like Boris Johnson'. But the centrepiece of the session was - along with the confirmation that the Autumn Statement will take place on the rather wintery date of 5 December - George Osborne's announcement about the appointment of the next Bank of England governor.

Jonathan Jones

Alok Sharma’s big challenge: wooing ethnic minority voters

From our UK edition

Alok Sharma has been appointed Tory vice chairman and charged with improving the party's standing among ethnic minority voters. He certainly has a big task ahead of him. According to the Ethnic Minority British Election Study, the Conservatives received just 16 per cent of the ethnic minority vote in 2010, to Labour's 68 per cent. The Tory vote share among Black voters was actually in the single figures: Lord Ashcroft has suggested that this weakness prevented the Tories from picking up the extra seats they needed for a majority, noting that: 'The average non-white population of the constituencies the Tories gained from Labour in 2010 was 6 per cent.

Sebastian Payne

The new Tory enforcers

From our UK edition

Last week’s reshuffle not only brought in some interesting new junior ministers, but also some fresh faces to the Conservative Whips' Office. Rebellions on the backbenches have become a headache for David Cameron in the last few months, leading him to adopt two new strategies to try to bring his party back under control. The first strategy has been to recall some more experienced tougher guns, who have prior experience in dealing with a split party. Many of these new whips are not necessarily allies of the Prime Minister but this may prove useful in reaching out to MPs beyond his immediate grasp. Here are some of the key players: Andrew Mitchell (Chief Whip) Previously International Development Secretary, Mitchell is the man chosen by Cameron to lead a return to order in his party.

Isabel Hardman

No re-mark of GCSE English

From our UK edition

Any hope that Labour might hold that the latest revelations about Ofqual might prompt a re-mark of the GCSE English papers is almost certain to be disappointed. Even though Welsh exam papers are being re-graded, I understand that the same is not going to happen in England. A source close to education secretary Michael Gove says: 'A small number getting lucky in January isn't a reason to give everyone else an inflated mark now. GCSE exams and marking systems are discredited. We said this years ago and the education establishment complained. We got rid of modularisation, introduced by Labour, and said we need to replace a broken system - and Labour and the unions complained that we were moving too fast.

Isabel Hardman

Briefing: Universal Credit

From our UK edition

MPs are due to debate the government's plans for universal credit in the House of Commons this afternoon. The Opposition Day motion questions whether ministers have 'failed to properly account for numerous basic details of how the scheme will work', and calls for them to address 'deep flaws' in the project. So where is the project at the moment, and what are those deep problems? The background Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith unveiled the universal credit at the Conservative party conference in 2010. It was based on the work that his think tank, the Centre for Social Justice had carried out when Duncan Smith was in opposition, and led to the publication of a white paper called 'Universal Credit: welfare that works' in November 2010.

Alex Massie

Independent Scotland: socialist paradise or neo-liberal nirvana? – Spectator Blogs

From our UK edition

Well, probably neither actually. But there's every reason to suppose that just as some Unionists are fooling themselves when they discount the possibility of dear old Scotia thriving as an independent entity so some backers of independence may be deluding themselves if they think independence is a one-way ticket to a socialist paradise. That's the premise of this week's Think Scotland column, written in the aftermath of Jim McColl's decision to be out for independence. McColl, Heid Neep at Clyde Blowers and reckoned worth a billion pounds or so, is Alex Salmond's latest boardroom success. Admittedly McColl's support is less than whole-hearted. It's predicated upon Unionist reluctance to move much beyond the recent Scotland Bill. Independence is McColl's preferred second prize.

Isabel Hardman

Vince Cable calls time on ‘laissez-faire’

From our UK edition

Vince Cable's speech on the government's industrial strategy today is expected to signal the end of a 'laissez-faire' approach to business. But the Business Secretary appeared un peu trop détendu himself when describing plans for a state-backed business bank on the Today programme. 'This is, as I say, something we're discussing within government at the moment. There is a scope for example for rationalising our activities as well as new lending. But the scale and scope is something that I'm discussing with the Chancellor at the moment.' There wasn't much detail on offer, other than that this bank 'may well' involve state lending. But as Sam Coates points out this morning, a real bank would take years to set up.

Isabel Hardman

Ofqual pressured exam board on English GCSE

From our UK edition

If any members of the education select committee were wondering if they would have enough questions for their witnesses today, last night's scoop from the Times Educational Supplement might give them a few pointers. Leaked letters seen by the newspaper show exams regulator Ofqual pressured the Edexcel exam board to raise the grade boundaries on its English GCSE just two weeks before the summer results were published. A letter from Ofqual's director of standards Dennis Opposs to Edexcel on 7 August 2012 says: 'This may require you to move grade boundary marks further than might normally be required.' Though Edexcel disagreed, saying its proposed grades were 'fair', Opposs pushed the board again, arguing it was obliged to ensure its results were consistent with other boards.

Monday

Isabel Hardman

Iain Duncan Smith denies threat to universal credit

From our UK edition

Allowing Iain Duncan Smith to dig his heels in at the Work and Pensions department in last week's reshuffle sent out two messages. The first was that the Prime Minister is not as authoritative as he should be: telling someone that you'd rather they moved to one department, but that it's ok for them to remain where they are isn't exactly 'butch', to borrow the PM's own favourite word. The second is that the Prime Minister was worried about the future of the DWP's reforms, and was keen to put someone else in charge of implementing the behemoth computer system for the universal credit, even though events meant he was unable to do so. Liam Byrne prodded Duncan Smith on this today at Work and Pensions questions.

James Forsyth

Vince Cable’s differentiation strategy

From our UK edition

While Boris was busy upstaging everybody at the Olympic victory parade, Vince Cable was giving a rather earnest statement on industrial strategy in the Commons chamber. Cable didn’t reveal that much about what he will say tomorrow, simply calling it ‘a gradual evolution of policy’ and making clear that it does not mark a return to picking winners. But as with all Vince appearances these days, Labour tried to woo him while various Tories questioned his coalition fidelity. Chuka Umunna pointed out that while Vince Cable had been working for John Smith, Michael Fallon had been part of Margaret Thatcher’s team. One Labour MP after another then questioned whether Cameron and Osborne would sabotage his approach.

Isabel Hardman

Where Brendan Barber has a point

From our UK edition

Brendan Barber's last speech as General Secretary to the annual TUC Congress in Brighton made a salient point about what politicians can learn about the private sector from the G4S debacle. Ministers may well dismiss the majority of Barber's comments about cuts and labour market reform without poring through the transcript, but there was one attack that he made that will ring true for those on the right as well as the trade union officials sitting in the conference hall. Using the Olympics as his grand theme, Barber said: 'Private is always better than public, they argue. Not true, as we saw all too clearly when it came to Olympic security.' He added: 'Congress, it's right to celebrate the Olympics, but it's even more important to learn from them.

David Blackburn

The answer lies to the east of Heathrow

From our UK edition

A retired civil servant of my acquaintance usually provides a telling perspective on the administrative affairs of the day. We discussed the Heathrow row recently. He said that it was ‘right’ to delay any decision until 2015 so that proper investigations could be made and considered. If he thought that the Tories would not dare break their no-runway manifesto pledge in this parliament, then he did not mention it. For him, it was a question of process and nothing else. The policy not to have a policy on Heathrow until 2015 certainly exudes a bureaucratic air, compounding the sense that this government has fallen captive to a conservative civil service.

Isabel Hardman

Boris muscles in on Davies’ airport inquiry

From our UK edition

Boris Johnson has already denied that the work he is carrying out on airport capacity in London is a rival commission to the one set up by the Government and led by Sir Howard Davies. 'I was a bit flummoxed by that,' he told LBC this morning. 'What we're doing is we are going ahead with our contribution to the Howard Davies commission.' It doesn't actually matter whether the Mayor is holding an inquiry called the Johnson Inquiry Into Airports, with its own logo and press launch, or whether he's actually just calling experts together to develop a detailed submission to the Davies Commission as he suggests he is. The point is that in nine months' time, two years before the government's commission reports, Boris will announce his own solutions to the demand for greater aviation capacity.

Isabel Hardman

‘Nobody likes being in coalition’

From our UK edition

The coalition's leaders like to stick to the line that the partnership is professional and business-like when they describe how policy is made. Newly-appointed business minister Michael Fallon struck a slightly different note this morning, though, when he appeared on the Today programme. He said: 'I think everybody has been frustrated: nobody likes being in coalition and everybody's impatient for growth.' He chose his words carefully when describing the 'different perspectives' that he and his new boss Vince Cable take on the labour market and deregulation: 'We're in different parties, we come from different perspectives and sometimes you'll see we use different language.

Saturday

Fraser Nelson

Justine Greening may be tighter on international aid

From our UK edition

Sending an ex-accountant to run the International Development department was always a bit of a risk, given that its remit - to spend as much as it can - inverts most notions of cost control. Today, the Daily Mail quotes friends of Justine Greening saying that she’ll be taking a long, hard look at just why we send a billion quid in aid to India when it can afford its own space programme, nuclear programme and overseas aid budget. She wants to do more with less, we're told, just like her colleagues across Cabinet. And this will just be the start. If Greening applies dispassionate logical analysis to DfID she would likely conclude that its budget needs frozen. No10 have said this won't happen, but the deficit reduction plan is now so off course that it may have to rethink.