From our UK edition
Nigel Farage seemed rather rattled when discussing his Edinburgh escapade on Good Morning Scotland today. You can listen to the full clip below, which culminates in the Ukip leader announcing 'I wouldn't have met with such hatred as I'm getting from your questions and frankly, I've had enough of this interview, goodbye.
From our UK edition
I've interviewed one of the heroes of last year's US elections — forecasting expect Nate Silver — for the books blog, but I thought CoffeeHousers might be interested in what he had to say about UK elections. Silver's attempt to predict the 2010 election didn't fare so well (his model significantly underestimated Labour and overestimated the Lib Dems) and he explained the difficulties facing those who try in 2015: the lack of constituency polls, the multi-party system and tactical voting. Here's what he told me: ‘I think you'll have a big increase in the number of poll-driven forecasts here. We need more polling here. If you don't know what's happening in individual constituencies that's a bit tricky.
From our UK edition
I am not quite sure I understand why Nigel Farage opted to launch UKIP's Aberdeen by-election campaign in Edinburgh. Then again, UKIP are a puzzling party. In any event, it all went rather well. Not just because forcing Nigel Farage to "flee" and take "sanctuary" in a pub is the kind of hardship up with which the UKIP leader can fondly put, but rather because the sight of Mr Farage being jostled and shouted down by left-wing "radicals" is one of the few things liable to provoke some measure of sympathy for UKIP north of the border. UKIP thrives on farce and chaos. The goons from something calling itself the "Campaign for Radical Independence" ensured that a visit that would otherwise passed almost un-noticed received plenty of coverage. Heckuva job, lads.
From our UK edition
MPs don't always enjoy the best of reputations with the voters they represent. In fact, if an MP is notorious and disliked, then at least they are doing better than their colleagues: the Hansard Society found this week that barely 20 per cent of voters can name their MP. So if a politician doesn't fancy sparking a row with the whips by flying to the jungle to make a name for themselves, how do they connect with their constituents? I've written a piece in today's Telegraph that explores some of the bizarre and humiliating rituals that MPs have to endure in their constituencies.
From our UK edition
Reports today that the Conservatives are wargaming end-of-Coalition scenarios in the event of the Lib Dems leaving early won't come as a surprise, given the bickering over the past few weeks on snooping, childcare and Europe. But in the interim, ministers are also trying to work out how both parties can practise a sensible differentiation policy without appearing to squabble endlessly for another two years. Nick Clegg spoke about the need for sausage machine government before Christmas, with a call for honesty about the difference between the two parties on policies as they were being developed. He has annoyed Theresa May something rotten by sticking to that principle on the Snooper's Charter (and the Times reveals some angry letters that flew between the two on this).
From our UK edition
If you ask what’s the problem with David Cameron’s European strategy, a cacophony of voices strike up. But it seems to me that most of their complaints are tactical when the fundamental problem is strategic: what does Cameron actually want back from Brussels? Some of those involved in preparation for the renegotiation tell me that this is the wrong question to ask, that what Cameron is seeking is a systemic change in the way the European Union works. But I’m still unclear on what their strategy for achieving this is. One insider tells me that inside Number 10 they’re ‘terrified of detail’. One can see why. Nearly all Tory MPs can get behind renegotiation but they have very different views on how extensive it should be.
From our UK edition
Anyone who watched the latest episode of Mary Queen of the High Street will have been mildly amused to see the retail diva encounter the good burghers of Margate. Urbane, fabulous and witty, with a mission tinged an air liberal imperialism, as if ‘to explore strange new worlds’. One can almost imagine her government reports: ‘It's commercial life, Prime Minister, but not as we know it.’ Suffice to say, much as some of the animosity was no doubt hammed up for the cameras, not every inhabitant of Planet Thanet welcomed Portas with open arms. What project more symbolises the Cameroon 'big society' effete tofu-laden conservatism than Operation Portas? And how is the once-bustling holiday destination of the Isle of Thanet responding to the Prime Minister's affections?
From our UK edition
Who is to blame for last night's Tory uprising on Europe? It's more entertaining to pin the blame on everyone, rather than one person, and in this case, it's wrong to insist that the leadership is entirely to blame for the confusing fiasco of the past week. So here are the many, many different options for pinning blame on someone for 114 Tory MPs telling the Prime Minister that they regretted his failure to introduce an EU referendum bill in the Queen's Speech. Coffee Housers can choose their favourites. 1. Blame the leadership (Part I) David Cameron should have had a proper strategy to deal with the ongoing demands of his backbenchers for a bill guaranteeing the 2017 referendum.
From our UK edition
The BBC loves nothing better than a narrative in which Tory anti-European eccentrics split their party, and a bewildered public votes Labour. It is certainly the case that some of the Tory sceptics are half-crazed by dislike of David Cameron. But the reason the subject keeps coming up is because it matters, and it remains unresolved. The Tory rebels understand this in straightforward electoral terms: the rise of Ukip threatens their seats, so they must do something about it. What is maddening is not so much Mr Cameron’s actual policy on Europe, but his patent longing to avoid the subject. His refusal to ‘bang on’ about Europe has brought about more banging on than ever. This is an extract from Charles Moore's Spectator's Notes in this week's magazine.
From our UK edition
Never accept meat from strangers. That seems to be the lesson of the horsemeat scandal – at least for the ex-commercial director of Freeza Meats. In September 2012, an Environment Health Officer arrived to inspect their meat stores. Discovering a large block of meat in one of their freezers, the officer decided to quarantine it. When the meat was tested for equine DNA, the meat was discovered to be 80% horse. And thus the mysterious case of the frozen horsemeat began. James Fairbairn, the commercial director at the time, appeared in front of the Efra select committee yesterday in a bid to explain things. In August, so his story goes, a meat trader named Martin McAdam, who owned McAdam Foods, tried to sell Freeza a ‘consignment of beef’, which they declined.
From our UK edition
Shortly before the Conservative party conference last year, the head of the Fresh Start Group of Eurosceptic Conservative MPs went in to see the Prime Minister in Downing Street. The group had heard that David Cameron might make his big Europe speech at the gathering and its head, Andrea Leadsom, wanted to set out what to ask for in any renegotiation. When Leadsom returned from the meeting, her colleagues were desperate to know what the PM had said: which powers did he most want returned from the EU? What would be the centrepiece of his great diplomatic effort? All Leadsom could do was repeat what Cameron had told her: ‘I don’t like shopping lists.’ This sums up Cameron’s attitude towards this renegotiation: announcing it is enough for the time being.
From our UK edition
So 130 MPs have backed the Baron/Bone amendment to the Queen's Speech. There will be Labour and other parties in this group, but reasonable estimates suggest that 100 Tories went through the 'aye' lobbies. This isn't a rebellion, because the whips have given backbenchers and PPSs a free vote, and to that extent things could have been worse because there were no aggressive resignation speeches. But it is the strongest expression of euroscepticism since the Coalition formed. Spinners will try to argue that as this was a 'relaxed' free vote, 100 Tory MPs regretting the absence of a bill in the Queen's Speech isn't a bad thing for the leadership. This might have had more currency if the party hadn't decided to rush out a draft bill at the last minute.
From our UK edition
Westminster is on fire with speculation about Tory/Ukip joint candidates after The Spectator's exclusive this afternoon. But would it really work? CCHQ has already rejected the idea, with a spokesman telling Coffee House: 'It's not party policy and it's not going to happen.' Currently, joint candidates can't officially stand without the sign-off from Labour or Conservative head office. The national nominating officers from both parties would have to co-sign an application to register a joint description. Although in practice the Conservative party gives someone in each local association permission to nominate Conservative candidates, they don't give other people permission to change the party's registered descriptions, which this arrangement with Ukip would do.
From our UK edition
MPs are storming their way through the Queen's Speech debate this afternoon, with a vote on that troublesome EU referendum bill amendment expected around 7pm. But for all their talk in the past few days, those in the pro-amendment camp are noticing a fading away in support. One source tells me: 'Given all the whips' pressure, 60 would be good.' When I pointed out that the whips were supposed to be incredibly relaxed about the whole thing, the source gave a hollow laugh. This is odd, as Downing Street is briefing that this is a free vote and that anyone who supports it isn't a rebel. But Sky's Jon Craig suggests that William Hague is going to appeal to Tory MPs to reject it at the 1922 Committee meeting, which is taking place at the moment.
From our UK edition
A mood of giggles and mischief descended on PMQs today. David Cameron is in America – attempting to cure insomniacs by explaining Tory Euro-scepticism to them – and his role was taken by Nick Clegg. Harriet Harman, a notoriously sluggish debater, stood in for Ed Miliband. It’s said that when Harman trained as a solicitor she conceived such a high regard for the law that she went into politics instead. Today she seemed as effervescent as last week’s Prosecco. She droned through a series of pre-scripted gags and less-than-sparkling jibes. This was one of her feeblest ever performances on the front bench. She started by mocking David Cameron for posing in a London bus while in New York. ‘That’s something he hasn’t done here.
From our UK edition
Following Isabel's revelation that the newly-reinstated Nadine Dorries will be pursuing an electoral pact with Ukip, Nigel Farage reveals he is open not just to Dorries' advances but also those of other Conservative and Labour MPs. Speaking on this week's View from 22 podcast, the Ukip leader says: 'If Nadine Dorries' association come to me and say they've passed a resolution, and they want her to run as a joint candidate in 2015, I will go and ask my local association how they feel but my inclination would be, why not? What on earth is wrong with doing this? 'I would also say this could apply to other Tories too.
From our UK edition
Today's job statistics are, as usual, mixed — and even a touch confusing. Last month, the headline was that the unemployment had risen to 2.56 million. This month, we're told that it's risen again — to 2.52 million. How can both be right? Because the point of comparison is not the previous month, but the previous quarter. Still, the fall in employment and rise in unemployment is really last month's news, not this month's. As ever, it's worth remembering the margin of error of all these estimates, which dwarfs the quarterly changes — so we don't actually know whether they rose, fell or stayed the same. But there are some trends that we can identify.
From our UK edition
Nadine Dorries has given an interview to The Spectator this week in which she reveals that she will be holding talks with her constituency association about a joint Tory/Ukip endorsement for the 2015 election. She tells the magazine 'I will be having that kind of conversation with my association', and adds: 'There are members in my association who approached me recently who are confused. They have always been Conservative and will never change their allegiance but feel very much as though they have a huge amount of empathy with Ukip. I feel it would be a travesty if Ukip came in and took the seats off our councillors or indeed me when actually their policies and their beliefs are very much Ukip.
From our UK edition
There was a rare moment of unity between the Tory awkward squad and the Whips at PMQs today. The awkward squad relished brandishing copies of a Liberal Democrat leaflet promising an In/Out referendum. CCHQ, for its part, has been keen to give this leaflet more attention. Clegg tried to dismiss it, but did he declare that a referendum on the EU is now a matter of ‘when not if’. A while back, Tory ministers used to feel rather guilty when their backbenchers took pop after pop at Clegg. But today the Tories on the front bench did not look at all displeased today when five Tory backbench questions attacked the deputy Prime Minister. The Tory leadership has concluded that the best way to unite the party is to encourage them to attack their coalition partners.
From our UK edition
It simply isn’t correct to claim that the Conservative Party is at odds over a possible vote on legislation paving the way for a referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union. The Prime Minister has adopted a relaxed attitude to both the upcoming amendment to the Queen’s Speech and the Draft EU Referendum Bill – encouraging a free vote for backbenchers and ministerial parliamentary aides. He is entirely right to be relaxed. The Conservative Party in Parliament is united in their belief that the British electorate deserves an In/Out referendum on the EU.