Uk politics

David Cameron's speech on the economy today is designed to hit Labour on its weak spot again: reminding voters that while this government is trying (with varying levels of success) to cut public spending and hack back the legacy of debt for our children, Labour wants to borrow more. Ed Miliband and Ed Balls will say they won't borrow a penny more on day-to-day spending, a linguistic sleight of hand which leaves them with plenty of leeway to borrow tons more for capital spending. But still they try to criticise the Conservatives each time official figures appear showing government borrowing levels. The Prime Minister wants to remind voters that no matter how critical Labour is of this government's borrowing, Miliband and Balls want to borrow even more.

Is it really possible for the Tories to win a majority in 2015 after five years in government? Perhaps they need to look at the Conservatives in Canada, who won their majority in the 2011 elections after two elections where they won a minority government. But the way the party won this majority was partly down to its active courting of the New Canadians - new migrants to the country from al over the world. Canada's largest city, Toronto is probably the most diverse in the world, with half of its population from 'visible minorities'.

Nigel Farage likes to argue he's not a normal politician. He says what he thinks and what other people think too. He certainly didn't do what other politicians are trying to do ahead of the European elections, which is expectation management. Instead, he set the bar pretty darn high for Ukip, telling his party's spring conference in Torquay that 'we can cause an earthquake on May 22nd by winning the European elections', adding 'if we top those polls, it will then give us the momentum to drive us forward to the general election a year after that'. He has set Ukip a big challenge there because if the party doesn't come first, then regardless of how well the Tories do, they can deflect the attention onto Ukip.

[audioplayer src="http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_27_February_2014_v4.mp3" title="James Forsyth and Isabel Hardman on why the two party political system is dying" startat=1207] Listen [/audioplayer]Two things will make the next general election campaign quite unlike any previous election in this country. The first is that we now have four-party politics right across Britain. In Scotland and Wales, the nationalist parties have been a political force for a generation. But the big change is in England, where Ukip is emerging as a fourth force. Second, the campaign will be haunted by the spectre of another hung parliament. The question of what happens if no party wins an overall majority will be asked time and time again by an impatient media.