Uk politics

Nigel Farage is just Russell Brand for old people

Yes, yes, yes, some young ‘uns support UKIP. Just as a few black people do too. But come on. We all know – because the polling tells us so – that UKIP supporters are likely to be older and whiter than the average voter and, most importantly, also more certain that the whole bleedin’ country is going to the dogs. The sodding dogs, I tell you. It isn’t. Of course there are problems. Of course there are great injustices that need correcting. Of course there are difficult, often intractable, policy debates that resist easy answers. There always have been and always will be. Change is always alarming and always unavoidable.

Farage (wisely) bottles the Newark by-election: ‘I’m a fighter, I’m a warrior’

Much relief in Downing Street this morning as Nigel Farage announces that he’s not standing in the Newark by-election. Coffee House readers had the best insight into the Ukip leader’s thinking when James posted the details of a conversation he’d had with Farage about the constituency. And his prediction that Farage may well decide to not stand was right. listen to ‘Nigel Farage says he’s not standing in Newark: ‘You have to pick your battles’’ on Audioboo Farage has bottled it, he’s frit. That’s what every relieved Conservative MP is saying this morning. It’s true: Farage got to the cliff edge, looked down, and edged away from what he saw.

The Mercer mess

Patrick Mercer has gone out in style. One Tory MP, hearing that the whips had tried to dissuade him from triggering a by-election fight with Ukip at an extremely inconvenient time for David Cameron, told me: ‘It’s a waste of time. He’s determined to damage Dave. He’s Colonel Nicholson in Bridge on the River Kwai!’ Mercer has left Cameron a little present in the form of this by-election. Even if Nigel Farage announces today that he won’t stand in the contest (and James’s post from last night on the Ukip leader’s thinking is a must-read), Ukip can still repeat its success in Eastleigh by fielding an impressive formerly unknown candidate. In Eastleigh,

Why Nigel Farage might not stand in Newark

Nigel Farage told me on Monday how closely he was watching the situation in Newark. He introduced the subject by saying, “there’s one other thing that could change everything”. But Farage’s comments to me yesterday make me think that he’s unlikely to stand in Newark. He said that he’d ‘been looking at candidates’ and mused on how just one MP would make such a difference. He pointed to how the Canadian Reform party had won a seat in a by-election in 1989 and then go on to become the largest opposition party in at the next election. What struck me about this anecdote was how taken Farage was by the

Who could win the Newark by-election?

Who stands the best chance of winning the Newark by-election after Patrick Mercer’s resignation? It is a safe Conservative seat, which Mercer has held since 2001. At the last general election, Mercer was reelected to Newark with a 32 per cent majority: [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/xnER5/index.html”] The Tories announced when Mercer resigned the party whip that Robert Jenrick, a lawyer who currently works at Christie’s auction house, would be standing for Newark at the next election. Will Jenrick hold the seat? According to Electoral Calculus, there is an 87 per cent chance that the Conservatives will win Newark based on the current polls — but by-elections are more unpredictable. listen to ‘Patrick Mercer

Patrick Mercer quits as MP and triggers awkward by-election in Newark

Patrick Mercer has quit as an MP. The Sun has the story, with the former Conservative saying: ‘It is clear to me that the constituency of Newark needs to be represented properly. I will not argue will the findings of the committee and I can only humbly apologise. “My military background has taught me that you must never let down the people who depend on you, and those people are my constituents of Newark. If that becomes the case, you must go without any argument.’ listen to ‘Patrick Mercer resigns as the MP for Newark’ on Audioboo Now the question is when the Newark by-election will take place. It is

Patrick Mercer banned from Parliament for six months

Patrick Mercer has been banned from Parliament for six months, the Standards Committee has confirmed, following revelations by the Telegraph and BBC Panorama that he agreed to table questions in return for cash. He had already resigned the Conservative whip. The question now is whether Mercer resigns as an MP, triggering a by-election in Newark which the Tories could try to hold on 22 May? Nigel Farage today said he would consider standing in a by-election this year. In 2010, Mercer won a 16,152 majority, with Ukip coming fourth with 3.81 per cent of the vote.

George Osborne: Britain is coming back (alright)

Treasury Questions today was rather formulaic. George Osborne spent a little while congratulating himself on today’s growth figures (only to be cut off by Bercow, who complained his answer was ‘far too long’), and loyal Tory MPs congratulated him too. Many of them chanted the phrase ‘long-term economic plan’. Some Labour MPs helped out by saying it too, which Osborne thanked them for. He has his own new phrase, which sounds a bit like a Backstreet Boys single: ‘Britain is coming back’. ‘Britain is coming back, alright,’ he (nearly) told MPs, before demanding that Labour congratulate him on the GDP figures. When it came to Ed Balls’ turn, he dispensed

Senior Tory MP: Boris should stop messing our party around

I have not asked anyone out on a date for over 35 years. In fact, the last time I did invite anyone out was, like most of my attempts, excruciatingly bad. It involved a bubbly and charismatic blonde who told me to get lost. Now, as a Conservative MP, I find myself being teased by another bubbly blonde: Boris Johnson. I can’t understand why he is toying with me. Why won’t he accept my party’s offer of a safe seat? Like a desperate suitor, it has given him plenty of options, from a welcoming spot in Hampshire to a more familiar haunt in Kensington. I can’t believe it’s work that’s

Labour goes after Cameron over TV debates

A smart move by Ed Miliband today to put pressure on David Cameron over the televised leaders’ debates next year. Every time the Prime Minister is asked about these debates, he makes supportive noises while muttering about the ‘right formula’, but doesn’t commit to anything. He has also said that he felt the debates ‘dominated’ the coverage of the 2010 election, which is as close as he’ll come to saying that Nick Clegg’s shiny new qualities at the time rather detracted from Cameron’s own appeal which his strategists had been setting so much store by. But as the Prime Minister hasn’t agreed to anything, Labour’s trying to get ahead of

50 MPs make biggest rebellion on HS2 Bill

As expected, the High Speed Rail (London – West Midlands) Bill 2013-14 has passed its second reading in the House of Commons by 452 votes to 41. Cheryl Gillan’s amendment calling on the House to decline to give the legislation its second reading failed 451 votes to 50. The breakdown of who voted (and, more interestingly in this vote when some ministers have opted for a disappearing act, who didn’t vote) will take a little while to come through. What will prevent ministerial resignations will be how the Bill progresses in the Committee stage, which will chug slower than a toy steam train. David Lidington wants further mitigation for his constituents,

Brothers in arms — Ukip and the SNP are singing the same song

You don’t mean a thing if your seat ain’t a swing. As this saying goes, political campaigning in safe seats is usually a thankless task — unless you are Nigel Farage. Last week, he managed to pack out The Sage concert hall in ultra-safe Labour Gateshead for Ukip’s biggest ever-public meeting. By going back to the simple idea of touring the country (even the sceptical parts) and giving speeches, Farage is appealing directly to the voters left behind by the other parties. He told the 1,200-odd assembled crowd of my fellow Geordies: ‘We are here to say that Labour used to stand up for the people in this region, but

Coffee Shots: Common Sense driving

All aboard Ukip’s Common Sense battle bus! Today Nigel Farage’s party took the fight to Portsmouth – or more precisely, Portsmouth and Southsea Station. It’s not entirely clear what the station did to offend Ukip, but the party’s battle bus accidentally collided with it while trying to execute a U-turn. Hopefully it’s not an omen for what will happen when the party drives back over previous commitments made in its 2010 manifesto.

David Cameron’s mile-high fight

How does a Prime Minister get a recalcitrant minister to agree to something? Well, if it’s not going to make any difference to whether some legislation passes and the minister isn’t directly responsible for the policy, then he can always let them avoid a vote, as he seems to be doing on HS2 today. But what if the minister is the one who needs to sign off on a policy change? I hear that David Cameron found himself in this situation late last year when trying to make some changes to the government’s counter-extremism strategy. Baroness Warsi (not his favourite minister) was refusing to accept the changes, which the Prime

If Ed Miliband is the Union’s saviour then the Union is doomed

With apologies to John Rentoul, Can Ed Miliband save the Union? is a question to which the answer is God help us all. I admit to a blind spot vis a vis the Labour leader: Looks like Gussie Fink-Nottle, thinks like a Marxist Madeline Bassett. Clever enough in a droopy kind of way but, ultimately, a gawd-help-us kind of fellow. I wasn’t very impressed last time Mr Miliband came to Scotland and so I wasn’t inclined to be impressed by his most recent trip to Glasgow. Which is dandy because I wasn’t. I dare say Miliband’s belief that Scottish independence would be a bad idea – for Scotland and the rest of

Are you fit to be British? Take the Ukip test

If you believe that Ukip supporters love Britain and cannot abide Europe, look at the report by the pollster Peter Kellner in the current issue of Prospect. Ukip fears Britain has: ‘gone off the rails. Hence the fact that 57 per cent of Ukip supporters would prefer to migrate to mainland Europe if they could.’ To put it another way, no one hates his country more that the bawling patriot. The reasons for Ukip’s loathing are many, and in some instances understandable: falling living standards, politically correct double-standards, mass immigration, poor public services, political corruption and the timeless complaint of the old and disappointed that ‘things ain’t what they used

Tory HS2 rebel: We need a plan in case Labour drops support

Whether or not key ministers whose constituencies are affected by HS2 turn out to vote at today’s second reading of the legislation introducing it, the bill will pass this stage with a big majority thanks to cross-party support. Between 20 and 30 MPs are expected to defy the whip and either vote for a motion declining to give the Bill a second reading, or against the second reading itself. What will be interesting over the next few months is how many concessions critics of the Bill are able to eke out of the government, and whether this buys them off or not. When I spoke to Cheryl Gillan about her

Ukip on course to come first in the Euro elections

Despite a week of rather bruising media coverage, Ukip has moved into first place for next month’s European elections. For the second time this year, Nigel Farage’s party has overtaken Labour. According to poll by YouGov for the Sunday Times, just three points currently separate Labour and Ukip — still touching the margin of error: [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/aVjwf/index.html”] Although Labour and Ukip may continue to swap places over the next few weeks, today’s poll also suggests Ukip voters are more likely to turn out on polling day. When asked from 0 to 10 the likelihood of turning out on polling day, 48 per cent said they definitely would — 34 per