Uk politics

There has been excited chatter in recent days that a breakthrough on the Northern Ireland Protocol could be imminent. Last week, the UK government and Brussels agreed a new technical arrangement on sharing trade data, which was heralded as a ‘new basis’ for talks, following a meeting between EU chief negotiator Maros Sefcovic, and James Cleverly, the Foreign Secretary. Since then, there has been speculation that the two sides could enter the ‘tunnel’ – the intensive end stage of negotiations – as soon as this week. There is a desire on both sides to find an agreement on changes to the Protocol could ahead of the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement. However, today Downing Street urged caution – with No.

Rishi Sunak has a rebel problem: we already know that. He's got factions of Tory MPs prepared to vote against the government on a range of issues, and the Prime Minister knows that on each issue, there are different rebels, rather than just one easy-to-identify awkward squad. Even when he is, as Katy explains in the magazine this week, focusing on issues that unite the party rather than reforms that will provoke some rebels such as planning reform, he still has trouble on his hands.  The current trouble comes in the form of the Online Safety Bill, which has a phalanx of Conservatives prepared to vote against their party whip in order to toughen up the legislation.

Speaking in Belfast this morning, Keir Starmer offered ‘political cover’ to the Prime Minister over any change to the Northern Ireland Protocol. A new deal with the EU is thought to be imminent – and Labour sees the chance for mischief. Starmer said it is ‘time to put Northern Ireland above a Brexit purity cult’ and that ‘we can find ways to remove the majority of checks’ through new solutions, adding that ‘there are legitimate problems with the Protocol and these must be recognised in any negotiations’. Starmer’s speech is well-timed His comments are a recognition of the Protocol’s relevance over the next few months.

After his five key pledges speech this week, one can only conclude that Rishi Sunak must have been shown the chart.  The chart in question crops up in a regular update that polling firm YouGov puts out on the key political issues, as seen by various segments of the electorate. It measures the priorities of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and therefore have it within their collective power – and potential inclination – to grant the party yet another term in office. And it has told a consistent story for the past two years. The three biggest issues for voters – miles ahead of anything else – are the state of the economy, immigration and asylum, and healthcare.

Keir Starmer’s new year speech was better than Rishi Sunak’s. It’s easier to give a speech about fixing problems when you’re in opposition and someone else has caused them. But it was just more interesting than what the Prime Minister had to say yesterday. There was the politically audacious decision to pick up Vote Leave’s ‘take back control’ mantra, not just as a slogan but also in the form of a ‘Take Back Control Bill’ which will devolve new powers to local communities and give them the right to request more authority from central government.

Is it supposed to be enough for those of us of a culturally and socially conservative persuasion to know that some Tory MPs share our outlook? Are we meant to look back over the radical left’s march through the public realm during these past 12 years of Tory-led governments and think: 'Well, at least some Conservative MPs tried to make a bit of a fuss about it, so we’d better vote Tory again?' It should not take a genius in Conservative Campaign HQ to realise that no, it isn’t enough. Not when one of the Tory prime ministers from this long phase of nominally conservative government has just come out to say she agrees with the SNP’s policy of gender self-ID.

Oliver Dowden: Williamson’s messages ‘were not acceptable’ Cabinet Office minister Oliver Dowden joined Laura Kuenssberg this morning, and was asked to account for a series of irate and expletive-laden messages sent by the Conservative MP Gavin Williamson to the previous Chief Whip Wendy Morton. Williamson, who has since been reappointed to Rishi Sunak’s cabinet, had accused Morton of punishing MPs by not inviting them to Queen Elizabeth’s funeral, and declared his unwillingness to follow the government’s lead. Kuenssberg asked if Sunak had shown good judgement of character in welcoming Williamson back to Whitehall: https://www.youtube.com/watch?

As Home Secretary Suella Braverman struggles to keep her job in the face of vicious attacks from the official opposition, her fate will be the first big political test for new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.  If Sunak bows to the almost hysterical shrieks for Braverman’s scalp she will be the fourth big beast brought down by a combined Labour and media assault – aided by a handful of usefully idiotic backbench Tory MPs only too willing to publicly undermine the government – since the Tory election victory in 2019. Already Labour MPs such as Chris Bryant have called on the Home Secretary to resign, while Keir Starmer has said Sunak should sack Braverman as she could pose a security risk.

Ahead of Sajid Javid’s resignation statement in the Commons, allies of the former chancellor were keen to press that it would be a friendly affair. The idea being that Javid wanted to use the traditional personal statement to be constructive rather than score points. In the end, there was plenty of praise for the Prime Minister as well as some laughter. But there was also much in the way of criticism for an unelected inhabitant of 10 Downing Street. Javid praised Boris Johnson. He said the Prime Minister had been given a huge mandate to transform this country and was off to a ‘great start’. The former chancellor also lavished praise on his successor and one time deputy Rishi Sunak, saying he was certain Sunak would rise to the challenge before him.

Tory activists are in uproar this morning over varying reports of tax raising measures Boris Johnson and Sajid Javid are considering for next month’s Budget. Plans currently being mooted include cuts to pension tax relief and the introduction of a recurring property tax that could replace stamp duty. Critics have been quick to say that neither proposal fits with what the Tory party traditionally claims to want to do – rather than new taxes and limits Johnson ought to be pushing for tax cuts. However, the view in both No. 10 and No. 11 is that this is the year for tough – and potentially unpopular – decisions.