Uk politics

Boris makes it clear he isn’t interested in a coup against David Cameron

From our UK edition

The murder of Jo Cox was a moment that leaves you numb; an MP paying the ultimate price for the open society we live in. For the fact that our representatives live and work among us. Despite this tragedy, democracy must go on. By this time next week, the EU referendum will be over. The country will have made up its mind. Whether it is Leave or Remain, the UK will need a period of stability. This means David Cameron staying on as Prime Minister and, as I reveal in The Sun today, plans are already well advanced to ensure that this happens. Boris Johnson has signed a letter saying that Cameron must carry on as Prime Minister regardless of the result; making clear that he isn’t interested in any coup attempt.

Brexit still barely half as likely as Remain, say bookmakers

From our UK edition

The campaigning has been halted, as the country mourns the death of Jo Cox, but the financial markets have continued and indicate that a Remain vote is significantly more likely than Leave. The pound has been rising sharply (it would likely fall in the event of Brexit) and the betting markets how suggest that a Remain vote is almost twice as likely as Brexit. The Spectator's Live Odds chart is below, and will update every time you revisit the page. That said, the bookmakers have been wrong before (this time last year they gave Donald Trump a 2pc chance of winning the Republican nomination) and the last few published polls give a clear lead to Leave. So this referendum will be especially hard to call.

Why MPs will keep holding surgeries, even if they’re in danger

From our UK edition

‘If you’ve got water coming in through the roof then they should be doing something about that,’ says Stephen Timms mildly to one of his constituents. The East Ham MP is sitting in the middle of a long row of tables in the Town Hall, flanked by two caseworkers, each seeing a member of the public who has a problem they hope their MP can solve. Timms had kindly invited me to sit in on one of his surgeries months ago. I’m currently criss-crossing the country watching politicians of all political persuasions carry out their regular constituency work for a book that I’m writing on what MPs really do - and whether they’re the right sort of politicians.

RIP Jo Cox. Let’s call the referendum off as a mark of respect

From our UK edition

RIP Jo Cox MP. A hugely talented young politician possessed of great clarity of thought and principle. Shot and stabbed by a piece of human filth, a piece of white human filth, while attending her surgery in West Yorkshire. God bless the woman and look after her family, please. This sort of savagery and vileness has been on the cards now for quite a while. We are drifting towards the febrile territory of a banana republic, or at best the USA. The claims on either side of the Brexit debate are hyperbolic, exaggerated, idiotic. And the mutual loathing spreads daily across social media, a shrieking absolutism divorced from reality on both sides of the argument. Call the vote off, as a mark of respect. We are in no fit state to vote anyway, to judge by the level of debate. Call it off.

The Brexit debate has exposed the Establishment

From our UK edition

Yesterday, on the Thames, in a bizarre battle of political flotillas, we got a glimpse of the elite rage that motors much of the Remain camp. On one of the pro-EU boats, Bob Geldof, a knight, superbly well-connected, who has earned millions, made wanker gestures and gave a two-fingered eff-you to the people on the anti-EU boats — who were mainly fishermen whose livelihoods have been wrecked by Brussels. One of these fishermen, his face ashen with desperation, shouted — almost cried, in fact — about earning £50 a week and not knowing where his next mortgage payment is going to come from, largely thanks to EU regulations on the fishing trade. Wealthy, influential Geldof was laughing and jeering at people like that.

Remain is now Project Grouch in the EU referendum

From our UK edition

A couple of months ago, the Leave campaign seemed constantly grumpy, complaining about media coverage, colleagues and the use of the government machine in this referendum. But now, with just a week to go until polling day, this seems to have reversed. The Brexiteers’ continuing poll lead has spooked Remain, and Remain really isn’t dealing with it all that well. It wasn’t just the way that the pro-Remain politicians ganged up on Boris Johnson during their TV debate last week. And it isn’t just the way that government ministers including George Osborne seem to be resorting to increasingly desperate interventions such as a scary Brexit Budget that disgusted so many of his own party colleagues.

Sir Mike Rake is Brexit’s best weapon

From our UK edition

I keep telling myself that the polls showing Leave ahead are too good to be true. But then I see Remain’s latest efforts and feel reassured. One of its earliest campaigners was the self-important businessman Sir Mike Rake who, I wrote at the time, is pure gold for Leave. This week he pops up again, ordering his Rolls-Royce workers to vote to preserve his seat at the top table. Keep talking, Sir Mike: until 23 June, we need to see much more of these hard-faced men who have done well out of Brussels. This is an extract from Charles Moore's Notes. The full article can be found here.

Leave six points ahead in latest phone poll

From our UK edition

Fraser Nelson and Nick Cohen discuss The Spectator's decision to back Brexit: The Ipsos MORI phone poll released this morning shows a dramatic turnaround since its last poll which had a double digit advantage for Remain. Leave is now six points ahead amongst those likely to vote. This means that Leave has been ahead in 7 out of the last 10 polls and 2 of the last 4 phone polls. Almost as worrying for the Remain campaign as the headline number is what the internals of the Ipsos MORI poll show. In a change from last month, immigration is now the top issue for people in this referendum, overtaking the economy. Alarmingly for IN, 70% percent of people don’t believe the Treasury’s claim that households wold be £4,300 worse off after Brexit.

Has England gone mad?

From our UK edition

In the final, frenzied, all-things-seem-possible days of the Scottish referendum on independence - the days when it seemed there was something in the air and perhaps the water too - some people outside Scotland began to ask a disconcerting question: Has Scotland gone mad?  Scots, whether Unionist or Nationalist, disliked the question but while their huffiness was both predictable and understandable, not least because the question was often posed in ways that didn't exactly flatter the Scots, the question itself was not as lunatic as it might have seemed. Or, rather, it was a telling question.

George Osborne threatens to punish voters with tax rises if they defy him on Brexit

From our UK edition

The polls are tight, so George Osborne has a cunning plan. He’ll present a “Brexit budget” where he will spell out how he’ll punish voters if they vote to leave the European Union. He'll be forced to tear up his election pledge not to raise taxes: the voters will have provoked him, you see. Pushed him too far.  He has all kind of sums in mind, that they won't like one bit, starting with an extra 2p on the basic rate of income tax. Fuel duty will rise. The higher rate of income tax will go up 3p. Another 5 per cent on alcohol and fuel duties. Then £2 billion off pensions, and another £2 billion from public services. All told, £15 billion of tax rises: you can almost sense his nose growing longer as he reels off his list.

Brexit: Facts Not Fear

From our UK edition

I’ve made a short film with my friend Roger Bowles about why I’ll be voting Leave on 23 June and why I think you should, too. We’ve focused exclusively on the sovereignty argument, which we think is the most persuasive one. If you’re on the same side as us, please share this with as many people as possible. We’ve called it 'Brexit: Facts Not Fear' because we think it’s important that people should be acquainted with as many facts as possible when they cast their vote. Below is a transcript of the film, with links corroborating the facts referred to. Hi. I’m Toby Young, I’m an associate editor of the Spectator.

Sadiq Khan’s advert ban shows he is an illiberal censor at heart

From our UK edition

Six weeks ago I was one of the 1.3 million Londoners who voted for Sadiq Khan as mayor. Boy do I regret it now. Because he’s just shown what he really thinks of us inhabitants of the capital: that we’re so mentally fragile, so pathetic, so vulnerable to the wicked charms of advertisers, that he must censor allegedly sexist ads on our behalf and protect us from offence. In proposing a blanket ban on bus and Tube ads that make people feel bad about their bodies, Sadiq has revealed his authoritarian, paternalistic contempt for the people who swept him to power. I’m amazed there isn’t more fury about his extraordinary proposal. He has instructed Transport for London to stop running ads that indulge in body-shaming.

Pro-Leave Tories are storing up trouble for their party with spending pledges

From our UK edition

The Leave campaign is doing well at the moment: taking a lead in the polls and spooking the government no end. But is it getting rather carried away with its success? This morning on the Today programme Priti Patel gave a rather awkward interview about the campaign’s spending priorities in the event of a Brexit that made it sound rather as though Brexiteers were one party with a manifesto for domestic policy, rather than a cross-party campaign group pushing for one thing, which is for Britain to leave the European Union. https://soundcloud.

Why Leave is looking so comfortable in the EU referendum

From our UK edition

We are definitely now in squeaky bum territory in the EU referendum. Leave has a seven point lead in today’s Times/YouGov poll, while yesterday the Guardian/ICM poll put Leave six points ahead. Meanwhile the Sun has splashed on its backing for Leave. It isn’t a huge surprise that the Sun is supporting Britain leaving the European Union, given the stance it has taken in its leading articles over the past few months. But the newspaper still clearly sees that there is momentum behind Brexit, and that it will not look foolish or out of touch with its readers in supporting it. And that is what should worry David Cameron.

Who is to blame for Labour’s lacklustre ‘In’ campaign?

From our UK edition

Gordon Brown is busy trying to reset the Remain campaign with a rather leftier tone today. As Tom writes, Labour voters are far less solid in their support for Britain staying in the European Union than the party had hoped, and so the campaign is being handed over to the party so that it can have a proper go at telling its voters that it supports staying in (something not all of them have yet noticed). A group of 20 Labour MPs has also penned a letter pleading for more airtime for Labour voices. It argues: ‘The impact of a leave vote will be catastrophic for the British people. Mainstream Labour voices in the debate must be given more airtime if this catastrophe is to be avoided.’ So whose fault is it that Labour voices have been frozen out?

David Cameron’s Brexit threat to pensioners is a new low

From our UK edition

Campaigns only last for a few weeks, but politicians can be defined by what they say during those campaigns. Ed Miliband will never live down the #EdStone, Zac Goldsmith will always be stained by his murkier attacks on Sadiq Khan – and I suspect David Cameron will never manage to shake off the threat he made to pensioners today. At times, it can seem as if he’s got confused and has set out to attack his own reputation, rather than that of his opponents. Those who watched George Osborne grilled by Andrew Neil last week will know the issue: the Remain campaign has decided to pretend that pensioners will be worse off after Brexit.

David Cameron is not where he would like to be in this EU referendum 

From our UK edition

David Cameron is now having to face questions on what he would do if, as looks far more likely than he would have liked at this stage, Britain votes to leave the European Union. As James predicted in his cover piece this week, Cameron will have to row back on predictions that he made about Brexit putting a bomb under the economy in order to calm nerves in the event of a Leave vote. But with the polls the way they are, the Prime Minister is already having to answer questions about whether he really believes his own warnings now, as he did on this morning's Marr Show. Cameron can wait to worry about turmoil in the event of Brexit.

Going for Boris just makes the Remain side look rattled

From our UK edition

All sides of the Remain campaign are turning their fire on Boris Johnson at the moment. But these attacks are, I argue in The Sun today, a mistake by the Remainers. First, it makes Boris, the most popular politician in the country, the face of the Out campaign when the IN campaign’s strategic aim is to make voters think that Nigel Farage embodies the Out case. Second, it means that the whole referendum is seen through the prism of the Tory leadership. This is not only bad for Tory party unity post-referendum, but also makes it harder for IN campaign to get the support of Labour party voters as it drowns out Labour’s own message. Senior figures in the Remain campaign think that the attacks on Boris work because, they claim, he is seen as being out for himself and a hypocrite.