Uk politics

Tensions are worsening in the Tory party over the EU referendum, with Leave campaigners telling Coffee House that they will now not notify pro-Remain colleagues when they visit their constituency. This is an established convention that all MPs across the House of Commons follow, of letting one another know when they are visiting their turf, but after Remain campaigners starting mysteriously appearing at pro-Leave rallies in York, Winchester and Ipswich, Vote Leave has changed its policy so that any Tory MPs supporting In will now no longer be given any prior notice of rallies by the campaign in their seats.

One of the ways that Number 10 likes to signal to Westminster that it is taking a situation seriously is to hold a meeting in Cabinet Office Briefing Room A. Calling COBRA is a sign that this is a Crisis, and that the Government has got it under control, simply by meeting in a rather dull room. If the Crisis is a little more serious than all the issues that have summoned COBRA, such as Ash Dieback and horsemeat, then the most important thing that Number 10 can do is call a press conference with the Prime Minister.

Time was when the main argument between the two campaigns in the EU referendum was about who was running the most negative show (not, of course, about the matter in hand). The Remain campaign were talking down Britain, pro-Brexiteers such as Boris Johnson complained, while the In side argued that Leave was trying to frighten people. But with just days to go, the debate has changed, and is now all about who is telling the biggest whoppers. Yesterday Sir John Major launched his extraordinary attack on top Tories campaigning for Brexit, accusing them of speaking ‘absolute hogwash’ and ‘nonsense’ about the European Union, and arguing that ‘as the leader Boris is in a position to stop’ the dishonesty in the campaign.

The Leave campaign have had their best week of the campaign this week. After months of being battered by the Whitehall machine, they’ve taken advantage of purdah silencing government departments to get themselves onto the front foot. As I write in The Sun this morning, even IN supporting Cabinet Ministers admit that Leave have had a good week. But they argue that they won’t be able to ride the immigration issue to victory on June 23rd. One argues that you can’t focus on immigration week after week, or ‘By week four, you end up sounding like Nigel Farage’. But Vote Leave think their trump card is the link between immigration and people’s pay packets. That is the economic argument they are confident they will win.

David Cameron has been banging the anti-Brexit drum again, this time making the environmental case for staying in Europe. He has joined forces with the RSPB and the World Wildlife Fund, who have both stated that they would urge voters to stay in the EU, arguing that being in the Union has had a positive impact on the British environment; safeguarding rivers and woodlands, and forcing us to clean up our beaches. Today the Prime Minister visited Rainham Marshes, an RSPB nature reserve in Essex, and in a video from his visit he argues that since environmental issues cross national boundaries, we should work together – by staying in the EU – to tackle environmental problems. https://twitter.

This EU referendum is a particularly difficult contest to poll and after the general election we all should be wary of treating them as gospel. But there’s no getting away from the fact that the mood in Westminster—and on the two campaigns—is heavily influenced by the polls. The recent good numbers for Leave have put a string in its step. They have also ensured that Vote Leave’s focus on immigration in the last few days isn’t seen as the last roll of the dice but as an attempt to focus on one of its strongest areas. Interestingly, influential figures on the Remain side privately accept that the referendum appears to have tightened up in the past few days.

The IN campaign’s plan for victory in this EU referendum is relatively simple.  ‘Do you want the status quo or the riskt alternative?’, is how one Cameron ally sums it up. To date, Remain—aided by the various government dossiers—have been pretty effective at pushing this message. That is why they are ahead in the polls. So, Vote Leave know that they need to push the risks of staying in, up the agenda. I write in The Sun this morning that their message in the coming weeks will be that ‘wages will be lower and taxes will be higher if stay in the EU’. Their argument will be that the continuing troubles in the Eurozone will hit the UK in two ways.

If you ask most people if they wanted to win £50 million, the answer would be: where do I sign up? That’s why Vote Leave has launched a competition this morning (here’ the link to enter) offering £50 million to anyone who can correctly predict the result of every game in this summer’s European football championship, if no-one scoops the whole prize,£50,000 will go the person who came closest. Why is the prize £50 million? Because that’s what Vote Leave say the UK sends to the European Union each day. Vote Leave hope that this competition will get one of its key messages, the cost of EU membership, out to a non-politically involved audience. So, what’s in this £50 million competition for Vote Leave? Put simply, data.

The Lincoln-Douglas debate it was not, but we have just had the first prime time TV debate of this EU referendum. With Alex Salmond and Alan Johnson for In and Liam Fox and the UKIP MEP Diane James for Out speaking to an audience of 18 to 29 year olds in Glasgow. Many in the audience wanted to complain about the tit for tat tactics of the two sides in this referendum campaign or to condemn the scaremongering by both sides; interestingly, they seemed very sceptical of the Treasury’s forecasts of economic pain if the UK left the EU. One audience member, though, seemed to object to the idea that he would have to think about the issue at all.

The only MP who doesn’t want Angela Eagle to be the next Jeremy Corbyn is Jeremy Corbyn. He was away today -- thank Gawd! -- leaving Eagle to take on George Osborne who replaced the PM. Eagle is quality. Her low stature, her kindly, nunnish face and her merry eyes give her a huge advantage in debate because she appears to be without defences. What weapon could this sweet-natured tinky-winky milkmaid possibly wield? A roll of grease paper? A warm scone? A rubber duck? When she strikes, as she does, the blow arrives invisibly. She has a slangy northern tongue that can easily make an Oxbridge toff look like a waste of school fees. Today many Tories were secretly hoping to see their chilly, entitlement-oozing chancellor getting biffed about by Labour’s pocket Boadicea.

In a speech to Policy Exchange today, Steve Hilton—David Cameron’s former senior adviser—will make the case that ‘any intellectual rigorous examination makes it impossible for a Tory moderniser to support staying in the EU’. He argues that Tory modernisation was about trusting people, and that the EU does not; that modernisation was about localism, and that the EU is inherently centralising; and that the EU helps the rich and not the rest. I think there’s much to be said for Hilton’s analysis. (Though, of course, it should be recognised that there are Tory modernisers on both sides of the argument.) But where Hilton is surely right is that the EU is not the future, it is an idea of its time—the late 20th century.