Uk politics

Theresa May remains in place because there is still no agreed successor, I say in the magazine this week. As one senior Tory backbencher put it to me, ‘We take the view that while things are bloody awful, we don’t want to risk making things worse’. So does this mean that despite all the drama of the last seven days, nothing has changed? Well, no—I think some things have changed. First, nearly all Tories now agree that the May government is listless. Perhaps the more remarkable thing about the reaction to that Nick Boles tweet is how no one is really trying to argue with the substance of it. Even some of May’s most loyal supporters admit that the government doesn’t have much of a domestic agenda; they blame this on how all-consuming Brexit is.

The weeks before a cabinet reshuffle are when a Prime Minister is at their most powerful. The threat of the backbench or the lure of promotion can be very useful when it comes to getting MPs to play ball. But as Theresa May is fast discovering, the weeks after a reshuffle – particularly an underwhelming one – can be the most dangerous. Today, the Sun reports that the recently knighted chair of the 1922 Committee Graham Brady has received almost enough letters (the required number is 48) from MPs to trigger a vote of confidence in May. The paper reports that Brady was 'ashen-faced' when he was handed one recently. If he gets only a handful more then a vote of confidence is in the offing and May's premiership could come to an abrupt end. So, how real is the threat?

It’s been a while since the young H.H. Asquith told Spectator readers that ‘no third Party has ever been able to stand its ground in England.’ His leader, ‘The English Extreme Left’, appeared in 1876, when the enervated Liberal Party seemed destined to split. His core contention was that Britain would not, in fact could not, brook multi-party politics: For the last two hundred years there always have been two great Parties, and two only; and though that is in itself no reason why a third should not now be formed, it is a very serious practical obstacle in the way of its success. Parties, like other institutions, at any rate in England, grow, and are not manufactured.

Jeremy Corbyn has learnt from last week’s PMQs where Theresa May simply stood up and said she wasn’t going to answer as he hadn’t asked a question. His first two questions were short, sharp and to the point. He began by asking Theresa May if she agreed with Boris Johnson that the NHS needed an extra £5 billion. He followed that up by asking her who the public should believe about the NHS and the winter crisis, her or A&E doctors? Then, Corbyn slightly lost his thread. But this wasn’t really his fault. The chamber was distracted by a vigorous row between Dennis Skinner and the SNP MP Angus MacNeil; at one-point Skinner rose from his seat to jab his finger at MacNeil.

During the government's crunch negotiations with Brussels to get 'sufficient progress' before Christmas, nervous Brexiteers began to worry that Theresa May was about to give too much away. Jacob Rees-Mogg used a question at PMQs to warn the Prime Minister that her Brexit red lines were ‘beginning to look a little bit pink’. He urged her to ‘apply a new coat of paint’ before she next goes to Brussels. So, it will come as some concern to the Conservative Brexiteers – and the members of the European Research Group, that Rees-Mogg now leads, that today Davis said anyone who goes into negotiations with 'red lines' is an 'idiot'.