Uk politics

I hate to take issue with a fellow Spectator writer, but Robert Peston’s revelation that a “no deal” Brexit is now off the table strikes me as a prime example of Westminster’s ability to ignore the bleeding obvious for months on end then talk cobblers in an authoritative voice when finally forced to confront reality. Robert is far from alone in his conclusion about last night’s Commons vote. To be honest, I’m just taking issue with his post because the spectacle of Spectator writers disagreeing seems to interest some people, probably because they struggle with the idea of one publication publishing multiple and contradictory viewpoints.

The main takeaway from the confusion surrounding today's meaningful vote amendment is that no-one knows what it means. Although the government technically successfully defeated the Lords amendment calling for a meaningful vote on the final deal, confusion reigns over who is the winner: the Remainers or the Brexiteers. The would-be Tory Remain rebels are convinced that they were assured by the Prime Minister herslef that by voting with the government they would be awarded with a concession that would give them some form of binding vote on the next steps were Parliament to reject the government's Brexit deal.

Tomorrow marks a year since Theresa May sat her dejected parliamentary party down and promised that 'I got us into this mess and I'll get us out of it'. She was speaking amid the chaos of the snap election that she'd called, and it wasn't clear whether the Prime Minister was going to be able to form a government, let alone survive as leader for very long. Tonight, she's still here but still appealing to Conservative MPs for unity as the 'crunch stage' of the EU withdrawal bill arrives in the Commons. The briefing over the weekend did suggest that the Prime Minister was probably going to be ok, though in reality there are still a couple of votes that are going to be, at the very least, rather tight.

Unity is the buzzword in the Conservative party this week. With a series of crunch votes due on Tuesday and Wednesday over the EU withdrawal bill, senior Tories have been at pains to tell unruly colleagues it's time to put their differences aside and come together. Over the weekend, Amber Rudd and ex-leader Iain Duncan Smith warned that any Commons rebellions would be a win for Labour – and therefore bring Corbyn closer to entering No 10. It was a message echoed by David Lidington on the Andrew Marr show. No 10 are increasingly confident that this new comradely spirit will prove contagious. Within government, concerns have eased over the two most troublesome votes: the customs union amendment and the meaningful vote amendment.

Theresa May's cabinet is divided and her MPs increasingly worried over the government's Brexit plans – or lack thereof. Yet despite all this, the latest Times/YouGov poll puts the Tories seven points ahead of Labour. With many in Westminster left scratching their head over the apparent disconnect, could a clue be found in ITV2's Love Island? Mr S only asks after Friday's episode saw contestants on the popular reality show – in which twenty-somethings attempt to find their perfect match – discuss the issue of the day. Only, rather than talk backstop options, customs arrangements, the Irish border or post-Brexit immigration systems, the conversation centred around what Brexit was and whether the UK would still have trees come March 2019: https://twitter.

Could Brexit talks soon be heading for the ‘meltdown’ that Boris Johnson predicted? Michel Barnier’s press conference just now hardly inspires confidence that things are going to plan. The EU’s chief negotiator said that Britain was playing a ‘blame game’ in Brexit talks and that it had to accept the consequences of its decision to leave the EU. He went on to call for the British government to have something of a reality check over the way things were going. Today, that reality check came in the form of his rejection of Britain’s backstop proposal to solve the Irish border problem. Theresa May had put forward the suggestion that the whole of the UK would remain in the customs union after Britain leaves the EU next March.