Uk politics

It’s time for Bond — Basildon Bond,’ is the joke among pro-Leave MPs as Theresa May serves up her mess of pottage as Brexit. Market research, however, shows the joke does not work on MPs under 40 because they do not know what Basildon Bond is. So perhaps I should explain to the hip Spectator crowd that Basildon Bond remains the commonest brand of quality paper on which to write letters. There need to be 48 such letters sent to Graham Brady, the chairman of the 1922 Committee, to provoke a vote of confidence in Mrs May among Conservative MPs. There are certainly far more than 48 who do not, in fact, have confidence in her. It does not automatically follow, needless to say, that they will say so when asked.

The government is facing a defeat on the Budget. But rather than a Brexit showdown or the DUP pulling the rug from under Theresa May's feet over the rumoured backstop, the issue is a domestic one. After Tracey Crouch resigned from government over the decision to seemingly delay reducing the maximum stake for fixed odds betting terminals (FOBT) by six months, more than 20 Tory MPs – including Remain MPs and Brexiteers such as Jacob Rees-Mogg – and all 10 DUP MPs have signed an amendment demanding the new maximum stake be brought forward. The vote is scheduled for next week. While the government would currently lose that vote – no-one expects it to get that far with a climbdown expected in the next few days.

With Theresa May's government seemingly on the brink of collapse over the backstop agreement, the Prime Minister can take heart that the Opposition are also experiencing Brexit turbulence. Over the weekend, Jeremy Corbyn set the cat among the pigeons by telling a German newspaper that Brexit cannot be stopped. The Labour leader's comments dismayed a lot of pro-EU Labour voters. But fret not, in the space of two days Labour's Brexit position appears to have changed again. Keir Starmer – the shadow Brexit secretary – has just told the Today programme: 'Brexit can be stopped.' Expect the position to change again by end of play.

After Jo Johnson resigned on Friday over the government's Brexit position, his brother Boris was quick to take to social media to commend Jo for taking a brave stand – by calling out the flaws with the proposed Brexit deal. However, the former foreign secretary stopped short of backing his brother's call for a second referendum – also known as a so-called 'People's Vote'. Still, Jo need not worry – there are plenty of other Johnsons willing to fill that void. With Jo and Boris's sister Rachel a vocal Remain campaigner already, their brother Leo has now joined the fold. Leo Johnson took to Twitter to praise his brother Jo and call for a 'real vote' – going so far as to @ his rogue Brexiteer brother Boris. https://twitter.

Collapsing retailers. A looming far-left government threatening nationalisation. And perhaps most significantly of all, our potentially chaotic rupture with our largest, closest and most significant trade partner. It doesn’t seem to matter what you throw at it, the British economy continues to be surprisingly resilient. Figures out today showed it expanded at 0.6 per cent in the third quarter, its fastest rate for a couple of years, and a rate which should keep annual growth at a more than respectable 2 per cent plus. That will come with all the usual caveats of course. It was helped by all the money we spent in the pub watching our boys do so well in the World Cup this summer, the pound was weak yet again, and much of it was financed by hammering our credit cards as usual.

The leaked plan of how the Government might try to sell the Brexit deal contains a telling passage. The memo instructs the Cabinet Office to talk up the agreement by ‘comparing it to no deal but not to our current deal’. For all the claims by a government spokesman that the 'misspelling and childish language in this document should be enough to make clear it doesn't represent the government's thinking', this key phrase is the closest we have come to a disturbing admission: that Theresa May’s deal could leave us worse off than remaining in the EU.

It looks like today’s Cabinet will only be the first of two meetings this week. I understand that another one, which may well make an actual decision, is now likely to be held later in the week. Today’s was significant for an intervention from Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general. Cox’s contribution was about balancing risks. He, I am told, did say that Northern Ireland would be under various, different regulations under the current proposals. But he said that a unilateral withdrawal mechanism—which a large number of Cabinet ministers again backed—wouldn’t be a panacea to all the UK’s problems in the Brexit talks.

Halloween may be over but fear still stalks the land. As we enter the Brexit endgame, it is apparent that Theresa May plans to terrorise her turbulent troops into supporting the Chequers-style deal she has cooked up with the EU. A deal at any price? That is the Prime Minister’s position. From the very beginning of the negotiations, she has been intent on securing a deal. The lamentable events of the past two years can be traced back to this simple imperative. According to her, success in the talks equalled a deal; failure equalled no deal. And that is where I and my fellow economists in Economists for Free Trade (EFT) beg to differ. A deal is not success in itself. In fact, a bad deal is far worse than no deal (sound familiar?). I will come to why in a moment.

The campaign ‘Norway for Now’, an idea promoted by Nick Boles, is that Britain should join the European Economic Area and EFTA, until such time as we can move further out of the EU, for example with a Canada-style free-trade deal. This is what Norway and Iceland and Liechtenstein do. The idea sounds nice as a friendly and temporary compromise. But in fact the psychology is wrong. Such arrangements were devised more as an entry chamber to full membership (which is what Norwegian elites still want) than as part of an exit strategy. The Norwegian Prime Minister is now making this point. The point of Leave is to escape the gravitational pull of Brussels. Why make self-contradictory efforts to stay in the orbit and leave it at the same time?

It is quiet out there, too quiet in the views of many Brexiteers in government. As I say in The Sun this morning, they fear that right now a deal is being done that they’ll be bounced into supporting. They worry that since last week’s Cabinet meeting, there hasn’t been any new Brexit offer put either to Cabinet or the inner Cabinet yet technical talks have resumed in Brussels. They fear that a deal will be agreed and then they’ll be faced with a choice of rejecting it and having to take the blame for no deal and the chaos that would involve or accepting the agreement with all its flaws. This fear of being bounced has been heightened by Theresa May’s mood.