Theresa may

It's two weeks until the summer recess and judging by today's papers, that's two weeks too late. Despite Theresa May's positive trip to the G20 summit, the Sundays are filled with tales of leadership plotting and planned Conservative rebellions. Although Philip Hammond was heralded as a caretaker PM a few weeks ago, it's now David Davis who is being talked up to take the reins from May. The Mail on Sunday reports that Davis's ally Andrew Mitchell denounced the PM as 'dead in the water' at a Tory dinner (though bear in mind his comment is two weeks old – a long, long time in politics – and the Sunday Times quotes him as telling plotting MPs to 'go and lie down in a darkened room and then take a holiday').

Thursday marks the first anniversary of Theresa May becoming Prime Minister. As I say in The Sun this morning, several of her closest allies regard this as an opportunity to start trying to win back voters’ trust and respect. May has, by necessity, got rather good at apologising post-election. Her it's my mess and I'll get us out of it line to the 1922 Committee staved off an immediate leadership challenge. While her humility at the Tory donors ball at the Hurlingham Club went down well with the party’s money men. But what May hasn’t had is a moment of contrition with the public.

Theresa May is spending the day flying the flag for Cool Britannia at the G20 summit in Hamburg. The Prime Minister promised to use the trip to show that Britain remains a global player. But with May also planning to bring up the Paris climate change agreement with President Trump, how will the special relationship cope under the strain? [caption id="attachment_9896842" align="aligncentre" width="520"] Trump and May, back at the Nato summit[/caption] Captions in the comments. Update: ...

It was better from Theresa May today. She was combative, prickly and forceful at PMQs. The ship is moving on a steadier course. And two toxic enemies have returned to the fold. In the days following the election, both Anna Soubry and Nicky Morgan were ‘helpfully’ suggesting a possible timetable for Mrs May’s departure. Today they both asked supportive questions. And Mrs May read out the answers, tight-lipped. Only those within a yard of her could hear her molars grinding. The Labour leader got a rather glum cheer from his party. He suggested that the PM should fund a pay-rise for nurses because ‘she seems to have found a billion pounds to save her own job.’ As usual, he had a missive of woe to delight us with.

While the Cabinet bicker among themselves – in meetings, media briefings and the FT letters' page – about policy, behind the scenes chatter remains over who will be the next Tory leader. Handily, Conservative Home has today released its Cabinet League Table which shows where the various ministers lie when it comes to the party membership. Re-confirming the consensus in the party that Theresa May will never lead the party into an election, the Prime Minister has endured a record fall among members – from top to second bottom. While Patrick McLoughlin is the least popular, Philip Hammond doesn't fare much better, the chancellor has gone into the negative, he is third last on -11.5.

One of the consequences of Theresa May’s disastrous election campaign is that the balance of power has swung firmly away from the PM towards her Cabinet. This change of fortunes means that ministers can now speak their minds freely in a way that would have been foolhardy just a few weeks ago. Boris Johnson is the latest to make the most of this new found freedom, saying it is time to end the cap on public sector pay. The Foreign Secretary is said to support a pay rise for such workers, and thinks this could be done in a ‘a responsible way’ without raising taxes.

The next Tory leadership race promises to be a crowded affair. As I say in The Sun this morning, the whips are now worried about Rory Stewart’s ambitions. In a meeting with the government’s parliamentary private secretaries, the deputy Chief Whip Julian Smith demanded that anyone who had been to dinner at Stewart’s house the night before raise their hand. He said that he was determined to put all those with leadership ambitions ‘back in their box’. But this is the wrong approach. Leave aside, that those at dinner claim that it was a farewell to Stewart’s PPS Amanda Solloway, who lost her seat at the election, not a plotting supper. For even if Stewart is planning a leadership bid, he is no threat to Theresa May.

This first week back in Parliament has proved quite how fragile the government’s power is. It may be able to govern in a technical sense - announcing bills, occupying Downing Street, and so on - but it cannot guarantee that it will get what it wants in the Commons. Having to accept the Stella Creasy amendment on free abortions for women from Northern Ireland shows that, but this is just the start of a legislative free-for-all in which MPs from all parties are able to propose changes to any bill ministers put forward, and know that they stand an unusual chance of success. It just takes a handful of Tory MPs to sympathise with these changes, and then the government must either accept the amendment or face humiliation and defeat in a successful rebellion.