Theresa may

Although Theresa May's reshuffle of junior ministers was less gaffe-prone than the main event on Monday, there's a feeling in the party that overall it has been an underwhelming event. With little change in the top ranks of May's Cabinet, critics have been quick to suggest that she is too weak to carry out a proper reshuffle. But now there's a new criticism being levied at the Prime Minister: too much change. Ed Vaizey – the former culture minister and resident Cameroon – took to social media on Tuesday to congratulate Michael Ellis on his appointment as the arts, heritage and tourism Minister. However, he went on to complain that the fact Ellis was the 'third arts Minister in less than 18 months' was 'not so good'. https://twitter.

Today’s reshuffle was meant to demonstrate Theresa May’s return to political health. But it hasn’t worked out that way. This reshuffle has been chaotic even by the standards of these things. I can’t remember an official Twitter account getting the first appointment of the day wrong before. It has also advertised the limitations to May’s authority. She has not got her own way on several appointments either because of a minister declining a move (Jeremy Hunt) or refusing to take the job they were offered (Justine Greening). The appointment of Caroline Nokes as Immigration Minister attending Cabinet is also bizarre. Before today, who thought she was the right person to design Britain’s post-Brexit immigration system?

Given everything that happened to her in 2017, Theresa May could be starting this year in a far worse position. But that’s not to say that she hasn’t started in in the best position in the circumstances, either. That the Prime Minister and her team recognise this seemed apparent from her decision to pre-record her Andrew Marr interview, rather than appear live and chance being asked about new awkward stories in the Sunday papers. Perhaps booking a pre-recorded interview is a sign that Number 10 has a bit more of a clue than it did in the months after the snap election, but only really in the sense that it has more of a clue about how to better identify the Prime Minister’s political weaknesses.

Theresa May is expected to reshuffle her Cabinet early next week. Unfortunately for Theresa May, she's been expected to do this since before Christmas – after she refrained from appointing a new First Secretary of State in light of Damian Green's forced resignation/sacking. This means the reshuffle has dominated the news agenda for several weeks now. Each day this month, there have been several – often conflicting – stories about what the Prime Minister plans to do in the upcoming reshuffle.

The last full year before Britain leaves the EU has been foretold by some as a time of increasingly desperate negotiation. According to this view the government is drifting towards an economically painful Brexit, so consumed by the whole sorry business that it is unable to address any of the country’s other problems. Yet there is no reason why 2018 should turn out this way, and every reason to hope that it will prove to be the year when the Conservatives finally emerge from the tumult of the referendum to achieve other things. While the deal struck between the government and the EU in December -- and the prospect of Britain paying a ‘leaving bill’ of around £40 billion -- has offended some Brexiteers, it has transformed the political landscape.

Will Theresa May really go for a wide-ranging reshuffle in the next few weeks? Westminster wisdom has long been that it is dangerous to move your top team around, as sacked ministers make troublesome backbenchers. This does ignore the inconvenient truth that most of the trouble that May has faced over the past few months has come from within her Cabinet - albeit with an extra helping of Brexit rebels on the Conservative backbenches too. She is understood to be deliberating over whether to appoint a direct replacement for Damian Green as First Secretary of State, though even if she scraps that role, there is still a hole to fill at the Cabinet Office and on the various powerful committees delivering policy from Brexit to social care.

The newspapers are full of end-of-year round ups, photographic highlights of the year and so on. And I thought I would add to the melee by mentioning my ‘person of the year’. There are plenty of people who I could think of who have made my year more interesting, more enjoyable and more besides. But one person stands out for having made all of this even vaguely bearable in the first place. My person of the year is — without doubt — Theresa May. It’s slightly surprising because I’ve never been the biggest fan of the Prime Minister. Like most other people I have had – and will keep having – my criticisms.

Although the Boxing Day hunt is one of the biggest events of the year for the hunting community, it's safe to presume that the Christmas cheer at yesterday's hunt was dampened by reports the Prime Minister is expected to abandon all plans for a free vote to overturn the fox hunting ban. After having to bin the manifesto pledge to bring forward a free vote on the Hunting Act in this parliamentary session, Theresa May is reported to be preparing to go one step further in the new year and announce plans to drop the commitment permanently. As I write in the i paper today, it was only really a matter of time until the Tories turned their attention to fox-hunting.

The news of Damian Green's 'resignation' (some would call it a polite sacking) as First Secretary of State has broadly speaking been accepted as necessary by Conservative MPs. David Davis has valiantly reneged on his pledge to resign from Cabinet in protest if Green was shown the door. Meanwhile, the at times outspoken Andrew Bridgen has busied himself on the airwaves this morning waxing lyrical about the government. What helps May is that Green broke the ministerial code because he made misleading statements – meaning she hasn't had to make the decision based on a judgment on his alleged actions. The next question: will May replace Green?

Third Cabinet departure in as many months. Loss of close friend and ally. Scandal at the top of government. Cue questions about Theresa’s future. Has she been 'rocked' by the 'sensational' exit of Damian Green? Is this, at last, the beginning of the end for her? I’m sure some enthusiastic members of my old trade will do their best to write this up as a mortal threat to Mrs May. They may talk about a shift in the balance of power in Cabinet. Or maybe a PM ever more isolated and friendless. Actually, the boring truth is that Damian Green’s departure won’t end Theresa May. It probably won’t even harm her. Start with the personal stuff. Yes, they’ve known each other for ages. But close? Not so much.

Today the Cabinet finally held its first discussion on what type of relationship the UK should have with the EU post-Brexit. The reason the discussion had been put off for so long is that it is potentially a toxic one – with strong feelings on both sides of the debate. In recent weeks (or months, if you're a regular Coffee House Shots listener) the two tribes in Cabinet have come to be known as the divergers and the aligners. The first camp – composed of the likes of Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and Gavin Williamson – think it's vital that Britain is able to diverge from EU regulations in any trade deal.

On Monday, the Brexit inner Cabinet will finally have a proper discussion on what kind of trade deal with the EU, the UK wants. But this meeting won’t settle the question. Rather, it will be the start of a discussion. Inside government, I write in The Sun this morning, an unofficial deadline of mid-January has been set for working out a position agreed by the whole Cabinet. The aim is that this should give the UK government a chance to work out its negotiating strategy before talks proper start in March. Privately, senior figures in Downing Street admit that the government wasn’t as prepared as it should have been for the first round of these negotiations. They are keen not to repeat that mistake in this the second—and more important—phase of the talks.

It's official. Theresa May's Christmas wish has been granted. At the EU council meeting today, EU leaders agreed to move Brexit talks on to the second phase of talking trade. Announcing the news on social media, Donald Tusk, the European Council president, sent his 'congratulations' to Theresa May. https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/941630669939249152 Moving forward, the EU withdrawal agreement will now be formalised and  talks will move on to the new relationship between the UK and EU post-Brexit. The first issue to be discussed will be the transition period with Brussels insistent that all EU Law will apply until the end of the transition and all four freedoms will continue. This means freedom of movement is set to continue.

The decision made by 11 Conservative MPs to rebel and back Dominic Grieve's amendment for a 'meaningful vote' on the final Brexit deal has received a mixed reaction in the Conservative party. Nadine Dorries – a one-time serial rebel herself – has suggested they ought to be deselected, while Henry Smith managed a slightly more nuanced tone on the Daily Politics when he said the rebels had 'betrayed' voters. Add to this, several hostile front pages naming and shaming the rebels and there's a feeling that ostracism is the preferred way to deal with them. As Robert Peston writes on Coffee House, in practical terms the Brexit rebellion is an embarrassment for May, not a disaster.

With two new polls putting the Conservatives ahead of Labour for the first time since the snap election, there's reason for Christmas cheer in No 10. However, despite this, the result of the disastrous election remains a sore point in government. So, Steerpike was curious to see Sajid Javid make a joke at the expense of Theresa May and her election campaign in a speech to the Federation of Master Builders. Talking about the work the FMB does, the Secretary of State for local government said that not even Winston Churchill was immune to 'shoddy workmanship' – before going on to suggest May was: 'After all, none of us are immune from the kind of shoddy workmanship the FMB protects against. Even Winston Churchill.

Theresa May’s Brexit challenge is truly Herculean. Every time she believes she has done enough to finally move the Brexit process on, she is told that there is something else she must do. And each time, her tasks become more difficult. The problem is compounded by the fact that May is weakening her own hand. The Monday misstep has harmed the UK’s position. As one Tory insider laments, ‘Things with the EU are bad. It shows Theresa can’t really deliver.’ Even a senior figure at the Department for Exiting the European Union admits that the ‘handling was poor’. The UK is also coming up against hardball negotiating tactics.

Unfortunately for Theresa May, her working lunch on Monday with Jean-Claude Juncker didn't work when it came to agreeing 'sufficient progress' with Brussels. However, as the Prime Minister works to solve the negotiations deadlock with the DUP – and subsequently the EU, she can at least find some light relief in the abundance of Maybot sketches now doing the rounds. In a sign that Theresa May is making an impression on Americans, May made a special appearance on Saturday Night Live over the weekend – with Kate McKinnon doing her best Maybot impression: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WMMSmwzOTg Should that one not appeal, Tracey Ullman's Theresa May is also a strong contender for best Maybot. https://www.youtube.com/watch?