Theresa may

Theresa May has received a shot in the arm from the local election results. But, as I say in The Sun this morning, she still needs to deal with the whole customs partnership question. Even after the remarkable rebuff that the ‘new customs partnership’ received from the Brexit inner Cabinet on Wednesday, despite the Prime Minister putting her authority on the line by making clear her support for it, Number 10 won’t give up on the idea. It believes that with a few changes it can be made to work. Already, ministers are being told that what really matters is getting out of the EU. The case is being made that once Britain is no longer, legally a member of the EU all these problems can be ironed out.

In this week’s podcast, we discuss Theresa May’s impossible situation - how can she get herself out of the bind created by the Brexiteers and the Remainers? We also discuss the hostile environment policy, and ask, will Ireland appeal its Eighth Amendment? First, Theresa May finds herself in a real dilemma. Her cabinet colleagues, the EU and her advisors are all pulling her in different directions over the question of the customs union. While Remainers argue that a ‘customs partnership’ is the only way to avoid a hard border in Northern Ireland, Brexiteers believe ‘max fac’ (a maximum facilitation agreement, which includes a technology based border in Ireland) is the only way forward.

Theresa May will be wishing Amber Rudd was still Home Secretary tonight following a fiery meeting of her Brexit inner cabinet on the issue of the customs union. The Prime Minister convened a three hour long meeting of her senior ministers in a bid to finally thrash out a plan for a post-Brexit customs arrangement to put to Brussels. However, things did not go quite to plan – with a decision delayed after a number of ministers raising serious concerns with No 10's favoured option. The most revealing aspect of the meeting relates to the customs partnership that Downing Street wants to push. This hybrid customs model would in theory keep trade flowing freely by having the UK collect tariffs on the EU’s behalf.

Next Saturday had long been circled in Tory plotters’ diaries as the date on which the next effort to remove Theresa May would begin. But as I say in The Sun this morning, even May’s most ardent Tory critics now accept that next week’s local elections aren’t going to lead to her downfall. Why, because expectations are so low for the Tories that they are almost bound to surpass them. (May’s own position is also stronger than it was in January thanks to her handling of the Salisbury attack.) Tory insiders now believe that they are likely to hold one of their London flagship councils, Westminster and Wandsworth.

Today's Prime Minister's Questions saw the Maybot reactivated. Jeremy Corbyn decided to lead the session on the fallout from the Windrush row, widening out his questions to the flaws in the hostile environment policy on illegal immigration, and on who was to blame for these flaws being apparent but not fixed for so long. The exchanges very swiftly became a ding-dong between May and Corbyn as to whose fault the creation of a hostile environment policy actually was. Corbyn wanted to pin the policy on May, but also demanded that Amber Rudd resign for aiming to harden the policy. His questions were decent, but it was May herself who created the Labour win today, as her answers were terrible.

At Cabinet today, ministers discussed the fallout from the Windrush scandal. I understand that Boris Johnson made the point that there needed to be a broader immigration amnesty for long-standing Commonwealth immigrants. He argued that this was necessary to prevent others from getting caught up in the same situation, having to produce overly onerous amounts of evidence to show that they have been living here for years. Obviously, this amnesty wouldn’t apply to those with a criminal record. I’m told that Theresa May then rather acidly remarked that Boris had previously called for an amnesty for all immigrants, which he did first in 2008 and then again in 2016 when he privately proposed one for those who had been here for over a decade.

This week we ask why Theresa May is pulling up the drawbridge to Britain, exactly when she should be advertising Britain’s openness in a post-Brexit world? We also discuss why charities are working to shut down schools in Africa, and hear from Quentin Letts on his experience of being pursued by the Establishment. As Commonwealth leaders meet in London this week, Theresa May has been under fire for her government’s treatment of the Windrush generation. The government initially refused a meeting requested by Commonwealth leaders to discuss the issue, only to U-turn on it hours later.

And we're back to Brexit with a bump. After a brief pause in the negotiations and legislation, the government has this afternoon been defeated on a customs union amendment in the Lords. The defeat was by no means minor either – peers voted by 348 to 225 in favour of a plan requiring ministers to report on steps to negotiate a continued EU-UK customs union. This in itself isn't catastrophic for Theresa May. When the bill returns to the Commons it will most likely be thrown out – and besides it only binds the government to report on the steps being taken to negotiate a customs union so there is wriggle room regardless. However, the scale of the defeat points to a bigger problem with the government's strategy.

The government is currently busying itself trying to win retrospective Commons votes on Theresa May's Syria intervention and clearing up the Home Office's Windrush mess. But should they have time for some morning reading, today's Resolution Foundation research on millenials' property prospects ought to give cause for alarm. The think tank predicts that one in three millennials will never own their own home. Instead, they will have to live – and potentially raise families – in privately rented accommodation throughout their lives. And that's before we get to what happens when they stop working and rely on a pension. What's more, half of current UK 20-35-year-olds are expected to be renting in their 40s. This has big implications for the Conservative party.