Syria

The Washington Post has an important story about how the Iranian regime is preparing for post-Assad Syria. The paper reports that American and Middle Eastern governments believe that Tehran is backing a 50,000 strong militia in the hope of keeping Assad in power and, if that’s not possible, defending its interests in the aftermath of his downfall. Iran’s ultimate aim, the paper suggests, is the establishment of a client state on the coast. This would enable it to continue funneling weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon allowing it to maintain its influence in Lebanese politics and to carry on supporting terrorist attacks against Israel.

Superb piece of journalism on the BBC News from Lyse Doucet. A horrible story, of some appalling mass murder in Syria – told calmly and bravely; unpartisan, questioning and undoubtedly exposing the team to danger, for our benefit. The very best of journalism. You can see it here. Actually, the piece which followed Doucet’s wasn’t bad either – a fine report from Damian Grammaticus on the Chinese economic slowdown as seen from the ghastly city of Wuhan. I mention this because the corporation isn’t simply a handy base for collective noncing, overpaid middle managers and political bias.

There’s an interesting subplot to yesterday’s prisoner exchange in Syria which has not received as much attention as it should. While government and rebel forces were busy swapping captives (more than 2,000 in total), little has been made of the role played by aid group IHH in brokering the deal. The group came to prominence during the Gaza flotilla in 2010 when its members became involved in a deadly confrontation with the Israeli army after refusing to cooperate with the coastguard. The IHH has since dismissed accusations of being linked to jihadist groups and insists its aims are purely humanitarian. Its role in the Syrian prisoner exchange belies these claims.

How soon the revolutionaries forget. You only need a sketchy knowledge of what happens to the pigs in Animal Farm to appreciate how easily revolutions are deflected from their original course. A recent – and rare – show of unity by disparate Syrian rebel groups suggests this is happening in Syria, too. Throughout the 20 month uprising President Obama has watched and wavered with almost blithe indifference (save for the occasional condemnation) as Bashar al-Assad has killed more than 50,000 of his own people. This changed last week when the White House finally intervened. In its most decisive pronouncement on the conflict to date, the jihadist group known as Jabhat al-Nusrah (which has ties to al-Qaeda) was proscribed.

Earlier this month, while he was in Lebanon to highlight the plight of Christians in the Middle East, in particular those fleeing the fighting in neighboring Syria, Terry Waite, the former special envoy to the Archbishop of Canterbury, kissed and made up with Hezbollah, the militant Shia group that held him captive in Lebanon between 1987 and 1991. One probably shouldn’t blame Waite, now 73, for wanting to exorcise any residual demons of his 1,763-day nightmare, but in doing so he unwittingly gave Hezbollah dangerous and unwarranted legitimacy.

In the last 12 hours all mobile and internet lines have been cut in Syria, plunging the country into a communications vacuum. The regime has been badly hit in recent days. Almost all of its supply lines into Aleppo have been cut off and a number of strategic military bases were overrun in recent days. Heavy fighting also resulted in Damascus airport closing down earlier today, suggesting the rebels are enjoying a degree of momentum at the moment. For its part, the Assad regime is saying the rebels are responsible for the communications blackout. That might be so, but if true, it reveals just how far Assad’s grip on power has been weakened.

I have only just caught up on the latest episode of BBC Radio 4’s ‘Any Questions’. In that programme, from All Saints Church in Somerset, a Mr Stephen Bedford asked the panel this question: ‘Despite all the foreign aid and support Israel has spectacularly failed to get on with its neighbours.  Does Israel deserve a future?’ More people have been killed in Syria in the last twelve months than have died in the whole of the conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians over recent decades. In addition, the Assads have spent recent decades destabilising the Lebanon, assassinating leading politicians there and much more.

Large protests have gripped parts of the Jordanian capital, Amman, today in a country where criticism of the king is punishable by three years in prison. King Abdullah has been careful not to repeat the errors of Bashar al-Assad’s authoritarian crackdown which quickly escalated matters in neighbouring Syria. So far, Jordanian police have adopted a passive approach to protesters. Abdullah will be hoping the momentum behind these protests subsides over the coming days. He can still take some relief from the fact these protests have been caused by a hike in fuel prices. This is the vital difference here. The popular uprisings which swept away regimes in Tunisia, Libya and Egypt were principally about corruption and the lack accountability. Abdullah is not yet facing similar criticisms.