Scotland

With the predictability of an atomic clock, Nicola Sturgeon has come out today condemning the Supreme Court which has reminded her that foreign affairs are not devolved, so Brexit is handled by the UK government on behalf of everyone in the UK. She concludes that 'Scotland’s voice is not being heard and not being listened to within the UK'. She started wanting to find a compromise about Brexit, she said, trying to be reasonable. But she – or, rather Scotland because they are of course the same thing – faces 'hard-right Brexit opinion'. Nicola Sturgeon on the UK Government not having to consult the Scottish Government before triggering Article 50. https://t.co/pfqV2e3r2F pic.twitter.

Nicola Sturgeon inched Scotland closer to a re-run of its independence referendum today by reacting angrily to Theresa May’s Brexit speech. Having already put indyref2 'on the table' – but not for this year – Scotland’s First Minister said the Prime Minister’s speech today had made another independence vote 'more likely'. 'The UK Government cannot be allowed to take us out of the EU and the single market regardless of the impact on our economy, jobs, living standards and our reputation as an open, tolerant country, without Scotland having the ability to choose between that and a different future,' the First Minister said. And she added: 'With her comments today, the Prime Minister has only succeeded in making that choice more likely.

Like the past, Scotland is a different country. Things are done differently here. What might be thought eyebrow-raisingly inappropriate in a larger polity is considered normal here. Consider these three examples: In 2015, Scottish Television decided it was a good idea to make Nicola Sturgeon, together with her sister and her mother, the star of its Hogmanay broadcast. New Year with the Sturgeon's was in turn hosted by Elaine C Smith, the comedienne who was, conveniently, also a member of Yes Scotland's advisory board during the 2014 independence referendum. Earlier this month, the SNP rolled-out the first 'baby boxes' that will be delivered to every new-born infant in Scotland. The idea, borrowed from Finland, is to support mothers by providing a kind of starter-pack for infancy.

Yesterday, the Scottish government published its ‘plan’ for life after Brexit. It was, at 60 or so pages, more detailed than anything we have yet seen from Theresa May’s ministry. But then it would be, given that Nicola Sturgeon will not be leading the UK’s negotiations as and when they begin. Still, plenty of nationalists crowed that, whatever else might be said of the Scottish government’s document, at least Sturgeon has a plan. But so did Baldrick.  That a plan exists does not make it a good plan. Or even an achievable one. And since we are still in the early stages of the Brexit waiting game the Scottish government’s proposals have the advantage of novelty but freshness is not enough either.

The SNP is consistently criticised for failing to close the achievement gap between the best and worst Scottish state schools. After nine years in control of education, the latest statistics from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) underline just what a failure the SNP has been when it comes to education; this year, Scottish schoolchildren recorded their worst ever performance in the international survey. While policy-makers in England are looking at the next wave of reforms to follow the ongoing free schools revolution, things north of the border are rather different. In Scotland, the new Cabinet Secretary for Education, John Swinney, has ruled out any change which would involve removing schools from the control of local councils. This is a mistake.

I can feel my views on Scottish independence changing. Not enough to write a column about it, perhaps, but enough to sneak in a mention here. Scotland voted to stay in the EU, and England didn’t, and this somehow changes everything. People who argue that Scotland also voted to stay in the UK, and so should lump it, miss that point, probably on purpose. Every aspect of Scotland’s settlement with the wider UK, from devolution to the Barnett formula, accepts that the effect of straightforward majority UK rule needs to be mitigated for the Union to survive. Brexit is a deviation from this. Independence still seems like a bad idea. Economically, I’m pretty sure, it would be an even madder act of folly than it would have been last time.

'Downing Street says the PM is set to rebuff calls for a flexible Brexit, which would allow parts of the UK to have their own arrangement,' said the BBC radio news this morning. Not quite. This notion has been rejected in Europe, where the idea of doing some kind of separate deal with Scotland or any constituent part of the UK was never a deal. The 'options' that the SNP talk about do not exist as far as the EU is concerned: it is a giant bluff. It's far from clear why she is asking Theresa May for something that the EU has already rejected.

Scotland may have a second referendum within three years, as many Remainers correctly predicted. If the British government makes a mess of Brexit, the Scots may be inclined to leave the sinking ship and rejoin the EU. If Britain succeeds in going it alone outside a larger federation and doesn't suffer a huge economic setback then perhaps the Scots might think they can do so too. I'm rather inclined to believe that neither the UK or the EU will necessarily be around as this century matures, and it won't be the economic or emotional catastrophe people imagine. Sad though it would be to see ane end of ane auld sang, Scotland would do fine as an independent nation. They gave the world Adam Smith, after all.

Nicola Sturgeon is in a bit of a fix. After saying that the Scottish independence referendum was a once-in-a-generation event she is calling for a second one just two years after the first. But polls show Scots have no appetite for this vote. Unlike the SNP activist base, which is itching for another fight – and there have even been signs of a Momentum-style infiltration of the SNP, raising the prospect of a split in a party whose strength has (hitherto) been in its discipline. So what’s the First Minister to do? Her answer, in the SNP conference, is to assuage the activists and publish a new referendum bill. Her peg is the Brexit vote, and her shtick is simple.

Throughout the EU referendum campaign, we heard that Brexit would not only sink the UK economy but destroy the Union because Scots were likely to vote Remain. In the event there was a difference at the polls—38 per cent of Scots voted for Brexit, vs 52 per cent in the UK as a whole—but was it enough to destroy, or even threaten, the Union? Polls in the immediate aftermath showed an uptick for support for Scottish separation which has since ebbed away. Kantar TNS has today published a poll showing that 53 per cent of Scots are against independence, which confirms the YouGov poll taken at the end of August showing 54 per cent of Scots against. So this is pretty much where things were before the Brexit vote.

It has become one of those journalistic clichés to talk about 'firing the starting gun' in politics. There has been some debate among the hacks at Holyrood as to whether or not Nicola Sturgeon has already 'fired the starting gun' on the next Scottish independence referendum campaign. So, to do justice to that cliché (and to mangle it completely), I suggest something like this: today the First Minister reached for the key to the cabinet holding the starting gun, which would launch a second Scottish independence campaign. She hasn’t yet opened the cabinet but she has the key in her hand, should she decide to place it in the lock and turn.