Russia

After four hours of talks in Saudi Arabia, Russian and American negotiators have reportedly come up with a three-stage plan to end the war in Ukraine. According to Fox News, the plan includes a ceasefire, elections in Ukraine and the signing of a final agreement. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, who was neither informed nor invited to the talks, said that Russia and the US are discussing the same old ultimatum Moscow set at the start of full-scale war. ‘I wonder – if we didn’t accept such ultimatums in our most difficult moment, why does anyone think we would now?’, he said. Back in February 2022, Russian president Vladimir Putin said he invaded Ukraine to protect people from the ‘Nazi regime in Kiev’.

There’s something about Donald Trump that sends Europeans mad. The President and Vladimir Putin agreed last week to commence talks about ending Russia’s war in Ukraine. From the hysterical reaction, you would have thought Trump had handed Putin the keys to Kyiv. Shrill cries of surrender, betrayal and appeasement are premature; extremely difficult negotiations lie ahead, involving Ukraine, on the precise terms of any deal. And Putin himself has blinked by abandoning many of his pre-conditions for talks set out last year. The mood among European security panjandrums at this weekend’s Munich Security Conference was fraught.

For the proponents of what they like to call realism and restraint in foreign affairs, it’s been a banner day. President Donald Trump has initiated peace talks with Russia by sidelining Ukraine. And Tulsi Gabbard has been confirmed to become director of national intelligence — overseeing eighteen agencies — on a 52-48 vote. At the White House, where she was sworn in by Attorney General Pam Bondi, Trump declared that Gabbard is “an American of extraordinary courage and exceptional patriotism.”   The sole Republican to dissent from her nomination was Mitch McConnell who has vowed to uphold oldline Republican internationalism during what is more than likely his final term in the Senate.

Donald Trump has told Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. ‘Settle now, and STOP this ridiculous war!’ he wrote on Truth Social yesterday. ‘IT’S ONLY GOING TO GET WORSE.’ But if the new president wants the war in Ukraine to end, American diplomats may have to open talks with Russia on issues much wider than Ukraine. Russia’s problem, after all, is not just with Ukraine, but with the West. Is there a deal that will make Russia, Ukraine, the US, Europe and the rest of the world, happy? Russia went to war to prevent Ukraine joining Nato and to regain for Russia a say in European security issues, and Donald Trump made it clear in a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron that his administration will not support Nato membership for Ukraine.

In one place at least, the reaction to Donald Trump’s threats to annex Greenland, Canada and the Panama Canal has been one of unequivocal joy. That is Russia – and for obvious reasons. Most Russians have long seen US language about the ‘rules-based order’ as a mere mask for US empire and US national interests. In their view, Trump has now removed the mask. Even more importantly, for the Russian establishment Trump’s words are a confirmation that he and Vladimir Putin see international affairs in very much the same way: as a matter of spheres of influence, transactionalism, and the ruthless defence of national interests.

A social media post on 30 December: photographs of admittedly-splendid new year decorations in Moscow, archly captioned ‘back to 2021.’ The poster is alluding to the fact that obscene and extravagant references to Putin’s war in Ukraine – notably the letter Z, which has come to symbolise it – were notably absent from city decorations this new year. Moscow’s mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, has never seemed especially enthused about the war. He has done what the Kremlin required – diverted resources to help raise ‘volunteer regiments’; wallpapered the city with recruitment adverts; renamed Europe Square Eurasia Square – but he has avoiding too close an identification with the war, unlike so many of his less-secure counterparts across the country.

Narva, the northern Estonian city right on the border with Russia, has been much in the news of late. Not only is it where the Estonians expect any Russian invasion to take place – most of the rest of the frontier passes straight through the middle of Lake Peipus – but it has also become the scene of constant provocations from the Kremlin. There have been border-demarcation symbols snatched by night, local sat-nav jamming, and a host of psychological wind-ups. In the past month reports have come of a clunky Russian surveillance-zeppelin flying over Narva, sporting the letter ‘Z’. This city – in which an estimated 96 per cent of people speak Russian as their first language – is one we may well be hearing more of in the next few years.