Rishi sunak

The return of fiscal conservatism

Next month, Rishi Sunak will break a Tory manifesto pledge by increasing National Insurance as the tax burden heads to a 77-year high. By declining to increase departmental spending for inflation – and using the saved money to cut the basic rate of income tax – the Chancellor has started a cautious fightback against Big Government conservatism. Much has changed in the two years since Sunak took over as Chancellor. Back then, inflation appeared dead and buried: long-term forecasts did not envisage it going above 2 per cent. Sajid Javid, Sunak’s predecessor, said he expected rates to be ‘low for long’ – and planned to borrow and spend on that

Inside Rishi Sunak's address to Tory MPs

How has Rishi Sunak’s spring statement landed with Tory MPs? While there were a number of helpful questions from Tory backbenchers in the Commons’ debate this afternoon, a more accurate indicator is tonight’s meeting of the 1922’committee of Conservative backbenchers. The Chancellor addressed around 50 MPs this evening (the one-line whip meant that attendance was lower than normal) where he said his spring statement presented a ‘clear Conservative plan’ that puts the party ‘on the side of hard working British people’. He repeated his comments in the Chamber on tax – heralding his pledge to cut income tax by 2024 as the first income tax cut in 16 years. As for

We will never hear the end of Rishi's tax cut

The bean-counters squared up in the Commons today. Chancellor Rishi Sunak delivered a terse spring statement which contained three major bombshells. And he was answered by Labour’s shadow chancellor, Rachel Reeves, who unfurled a few surprises of her own. Sunak gave an upbeat assessment of Britain’s economy but warned that our growth is about to be clobbered by Putin’s Ukraine adventure. Sunak expects inflation to peak at 7 per cent, or more. That’s effectively a huge pay-cut for every citizen, not just those in work, and it may nudge us closer to a recession. But he kept the R-word to himself. Sunak seems to enjoy being liked and he was

Rishi Sunak's spring statement speech in full

Mr Speaker, As I stand here, men, women and children are huddled in basements across Ukraine seeking protection. Soldiers and citizens alike have taken up arms to defend their land and families. The sorrow we feel for their suffering, and admiration for their bravery is only matched by the gratitude we feel for the security in which we live. And what underpins that security is the strength of our economy. It gives us the ability to fund the armed forces we need to maintain our liberty. The resources we need to support our allies. The power to impose sanctions which cause severe economic costs. And the flexibility to support businesses

Rishi Sunak has just defined the next election

The biggest surprise of Rishi Sunak’s spring statement was the announcement that the basic rate of income tax will be cut by one penny come 2024. This is the first cut in the basic rate since the cut to 20p announced by Gordon Brown in his last Budget in 2007, which was of course partly paid for by abolishing the 10p starting rate of tax. Cynics will be quick to suggest that there is a long way to go before 2024 and so the tax cut might not happen. But this is to ignore the politics. The most likely date for the next election is May 2024. It would be bizarre,

The MPs getting mileage out of expenses

Happy spring statement day! The annual event seems to come faster every year, replete with all those funny old traditions associated with this hallowed day. There’s the time-honoured Chancellor photoshoot, in which the incumbent minister has to strike a pose which suggests both responsible fiscal probity and compassionate one-nation benevolence. There’s the Sunday media round ritual, in which stony-faced ministers refuse to say anything of interest on the grounds of market sensitivity. And then of course there are the classic pre-statement media briefings, with much froth, speculation and excitable newspaper headlines about what the Chancellor is set to announce.  This year, attention has focused on fuel duty amid the ongoing

What to expect at the spring statement

The big story of Wednesday’s spring statement by the Chancellor will be the impact of inflation – which has soared from almost zero just over a year ago to perhaps 10 per cent in coming months – on living standards and the public finances. I expect Rishi Sunak to provide limited protection from the ravages of inflation to those on low and middling incomes, probably by increasing universal credit and the threshold for paying national insurance.  But quite how far the Chancellor inflation-proofs the take home pay of low earners will be the most important question he will answer tomorrow. Inflation that makes all of us poorer will create the

Rishi Sunak's popularity test

Rishi Sunak ended 2021 as the most popular politician in the country. A YouGov poll for the final quarter of the year found that 31 per cent of all adults had a positive opinion of the Chancellor compared to 28 per cent for Nicola Sturgeon and 26 per cent for Boris Johnson. However, ending 2022 in the same situation looks rather ambitious.  As the cost of living crisis worsens, Sunak is under pressure both from the public and his own party to step in and ease the burden on households in tomorrow’s Spring Statement. A poll out today suggests he has plenty of work to do to convince voters he has the

Will Rishi Sunak stick to his 'golden rule'?

Here’s the Rishi Sunak paradox: he proudly defines himself as a low-tax Tory but under his watch taxes are reaching a 71-year high. There are plenty of Tories who want to ditch next month’s National Insurance increase but Sunak is firmly opposed – mainly because he wants to link up in people’s minds that more money for the NHS and social care doesn’t manifest out of thin air. But pressure is on at tomorrow’s spring statement to make clear what kind of Chancellor he really is. Does he come from the long line of Tories who like tax cuts in theory but not in practice – or does he have

Can Sunak prove he's a low tax Tory?

When Rishi Sunak first envisaged this year’s spring statement, the idea was that it would be policy light. Instead, it would serve as an economic update on the latest forecast and give him a chance to lay out his broad tax aspirations for the year ahead. However, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine means that the goalposts have moved. The Chancellor has had to adjust to the fact that he has come to the end of one crisis only to be greeted by the next. With the economic fallout from Ukraine only exacerbating the cost of living crisis, Sunak is under pressure to announce measures to ease the pressure on households. So, what

Sunday shows round-up: Sunak says Ukraine and Brexit are not 'analogous'

Rishi Sunak – Brexit vote and Ukraine resistance ‘are not analogous’ The Chancellor was in the TV studios this morning, ahead of the Spring Statement that he will deliver on Wednesday. Economic issues, like much else, have been cast into the shadows over recent weeks as the spotlight has inevitably focused on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Even today was no exception, as in his interview with the BBC’s Sophie Raworth, Rishi Sunak was first asked to address a stir caused by the Prime Minister’s remarks at the Conservative’s spring conference yesterday in Blackpool: https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1505486969094168581?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw Government’s energy support ‘will make a difference’ Turning to Sunak’s brief, Raworth asked about the rising cost of

Rishi keeps coy on this week's mini-Budget

What support might the Chancellor dish out to help with the cost of living squeeze in the Spring Statement this week? In line with his previous media appearances, Rishi Sunak’s statements ahead of his mini-Budget this morning on the BBC didn’t give much away, as the Chancellor ‘can’t speculate’ on what’s to come in his announcements this week. But the pressure is on to address the energy and basic goods prices which have been skyrocketing since we emerged from the height of the Covid emergency: the energy price cap lifts nearly £700 this spring, and is likely to rise again in the autumn. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lw9dG565nag Sunak reiterated that his job now

Rishi Sunak’s energy bill dilemma

This morning’s revelation that the UK economy grew 0.8 per cent in January, the fastest growth since April last year, is welcome news after a Christmas plagued by Omicron – but it’s news that’s out of date, too. As Capital Economics warns: ‘This is as good as it gets for the year’. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the commodity price jump and the cost-of-living crisis will soon show in the figures. Today’s ONS release warns that even in January, businesses were already reporting significant rises in the cost of energy and staff wages. The week after next, Rishi Sunak will present a mini-Budget. The Chancellor faces a conundrum: how to explain the inflation and

Is Boris in denial about the looming economic crisis?

The priority for the UK and other rich democracies is to protect the people of Ukraine from the depredations of Putin’s forces. A close second should be protecting the poorest people in our countries and vital public services from the cancerous impact of soaring inflation, made much worse by the West’s economic warfare against Putin’s Russia. The most basic costs of living are soaring. And that means a devastating recession that has already begun for all those but the richest. This blow to living standards will be the worst in living memory, more pernicious than the impact of either the banking crisis or Covid. Talking to ministers and MPs, it is

Rishi Sunak is no Gordon Brown

How at home Rishi Sunak looks in the company of academics. The chancellor delivered the 34th Mais Lecture this afternoon at the Bayes Business School in east London. Standing at the lectern in his dapper blue suit, he had the air of a cerebral super-monk bred on figs and yogurt. He’s the first British chancellor to hold an MBA from Stanford and he seemed perfectly at ease in this warm, well-lit room full of brain-boxes with double-firsts in economics. He speaks their jargon fluently. Instead of a ‘job’ he talks about ‘an employment outcome ’. His term for a ‘career’ is ‘a fulfilling professional experience.’ And when he refers to

Is Rishi Sunak any good at politics?

Is Rishi Sunak any good at politics? In recent days Labour sources have been putting it about that they no longer fear the prospect of the Chancellor stepping up to take over from Boris Johnson if he is forced out by partygate. According to one briefing to the left-wing New Statesman, Keir Starmer’s team has concluded that ‘Little Rishi’ is ‘crap at politics’ after observing his response to the cost-of-living crisis and now thinks that Liz Truss may prove a more formidable successor to Johnson in electoral terms at least. With politics being surpassed only by espionage as a theatre for the use of misinformation and double-bluffs, it may be

Rishi Sunak’s cost of living gamble

The Chancellor is lending £200 this year to anyone who pays an energy bill in their own name. That’s 28 million people at an upfront cost to the government of £5.5 billion. The £5.5 billion will go directly to the companies this year, and will be knocked off bills from October. It will count as public spending. However, we will all have to repay that £200, in five equal annual instalments of £40 from 2023. Or to put it another way, our energy bills will be £40 a year higher than would otherwise have been the case until 2028. In a way, Rishi Sunak has given most of us an

The Chancellor's horrible task ahead

Whether Rishi Sunak is prime minister or still chancellor this spring, fate is handing him a poisoned chalice. Looking back, I cannot remember a time when the British people were readier to believe that responsibility for their welfare lies in the hands of the state. Looking ahead, I see a time fast approaching when the state will appear unusually powerless to help us. The gap between what people have come to expect and what government can deliver has never been wider. And at least in part, it’s a virus that’s to blame. The pandemic from which we’re emerging has elevated the role and power of the state, reliance upon the

Rishi, it's not the 1980s anymore

The stench of death clings to Boris Johnson. Bury South MP Christian Wakeford has crossed the floor to join Labour. David Davis has told him to resign ‘in the name of God’. Tory MPs reportedly continue to hand in letters of no confidence to the 1922 Committee. Once they reach 54, there will be a vote of confidence. Fresh polling on the Red Wall, conducted by JL Partners for Channel 4, puts Labour at 48 per cent and 37 per cent for the Tories, a near inversion of the 2019 election result. Sir Graham Brady — and Sir Keir — should expect some more knocks on their doors. The revelation