Republican primaries 2024

Bedford, New Hampshire The scene at Bedford High School is orderly but very crowded, requiring repeated requests from town moderator Brian Shaughnessy to curve the line of waiting voters round the corners and down hallways, creating a centipede-like chain of puffy coats and Timberlands chattering politely about how they've never seen so many people this time of day. The concerns about apathy after the low turnout in Iowa seems utterly absent here, formerly a Republican stronghold that has trended more Democrat in recent years. The crowd of sign-waving Nikki Haley supporters outside is chanting happily at the handful of Trump supporters, who are quieter and more grim.

Vintage news outlets, with lots of time to kill and space to fill, are desperately trying to say the Republican primary contest is still open. It’s not. Ron DeSantis’s campaign is already filled with embalming fluid. True, he finished second in Iowa, but that was his most favorable terrain, and he failed to win outright. DeSantis’s basic strategy was to draw away Trump voters by taking strong, socially conservative positions, such as banning abortions after six weeks in Florida. It didn’t convince primary voters. That spells the end for DeSantis nationally because it failed in a state where he spent a lot of time and money and where Republicans are very conservative. To invert the song, "New York, New York," if he can’t make it there, he can’t make it anywhere.

Former president Donald Trump delivered a resounding 30-point victory in the Iowa Caucuses Monday night and, according to polls, seems likely to take New Hampshire as well. This is with the exception of one poll released Tuesday that shows Nikki Haley tied with Trump at 40 percent, but it has a sample size of only 600 voters and shows Haley winning with men and Trump winning with women. Seems unlikely. Provided Haley is unable to ride her establishment donor wave to victory in New Hampshire, then, the race will be all Trump by South Carolina. Florida governor Ron DeSantis’s campaign proved to be a huge disappointment; as strategist Ryan Girdusky helpfully laid out in a recounting of his meetings with Team DeSantis over the past year.

Numbers are mysterious things. According to orthodox Roman Catholicism, there are instances in which 3 = 1. You might get by with that formula in your theology seminar. Don’t try it in your arithmetic class. Unraveling the reason why both might be right would take me far afield. But since numbers are in the air tonight — the night of the Big Deal Iowa Caucus Race — I thought I would remind you that numbers, and the reality behind them, can be mysterious. In the run up to the Caucus, lots of pundits put on their best owlish eyeglasses and explained that even though Iowa had only forty delegates to send to the Republican National Convention, it was nevertheless important because it was the first contest in the primary season.

It was former New Jersey governor Chris Christie who ended up getting smoked. His share of the Republican primary vote had dwindled to the single digits. His fusillades at Donald Trump proved as ineffective as the Ukrainian counteroffensive against Russia. He could only skedaddle... but not before delivering a lengthy departing address bewailing the manifold sins of Donald Trump, expressing his regret at conniving to advance Trump’s political fortunes and pledging, “I will make sure that in no way do I enable Donald Trump to ever be president of the United States again.” Christie was an enabler in 2016, when, to the surprise of the Republican establishment, he broke ranks to endorse Trump, hoping to secure the vice presidential nod, or at least a cabinet position.

Reality TV heavyweight "Judge Judy" Sheindlin endorsed Nikki Haley for president on Tuesday. "I'm proud to endorse Nikki Haley because she is whip smart, has executive credentials and was a superb governor," Sheindlin said. "She has international gravitas as ambassador to the United Nations. She is principled, measured and has that elusive quality of real common sense. I truly think she can restore America and believe she is the future of this great nation." Haley is undoubtedly excited to have the support of her own reality-TV star to leverage against Donald Trump’s Apprentice fame. "Judge Judy is a no-nonsense lady who has earned the respect of millions of Americans from her courtroom by being thoughtful, fair and honest,” Haley said in a press release.

I’m old enough to remember when Joe Scarborough spent most of his show kissing Donald Trump’s ass. Those were the days. Cast your mind back to 2015. Mika and Joe were still just “co-workers” and they would constantly yuck it up with then candidate Donald J. Trump. Don’t take my word for it — even the Washington Post wrote about their love affair with the Donald, describing the theme of these interviews as “bonhomie.” Erik Wemple explained, “Trump is often on the phone; some decent, journalistic questions get lobbed at Trump, often by Willie Geist; Trump makes more claims than the crew can possibly fact-check; and there’s a great deal of talk about polls.” When Willie Geist is asking the hard-hitting questions, you know you are in friendly territory.

Since she began speaking out against trans athletes competing in women’s sports, former University of Kentucky swimmer Riley Gaines has received her share of threats from the mob. Just this year, she was allegedly punched by a transgender protester in California. Now she finds herself in the sights of one of Trumpworld's most rabid advocates. Laura Loomer, a self-described investigative journalist and Trump supporter, accused the athlete of shilling for Ron DeSantis and posted her address to X, sparking a cat fight between the two women.   In the post, which has since been deleted, Loomer claimed that Gaines had been bought off by DeSantis. “In June 2023, Riley announced that she was endorsing DeSantis over Trump,” the post read.