Republican primaries 2024

Dr. Johnson once remarked that the prospect of hanging in a fortnight concentrates the mind. So, apparently, does being shot.    At least, that’s part of what I took away from Donald Trump’s long and sober acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention last night.   Many commentators have observed that there was a kinder, gentler Trump on view at the convention last night. Perhaps.   Certainly, the detailed account he gave of his experience being shot last week at his rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, was edged with a solemness and humility that have not been prominent parts of Trump’s rhetorical armory. I hope readers will appreciate that little exercise in litotes.

Milwaukee, Wisconsin Cockburn is currently drinking his first half-decent coffee of the Republican National Convention in the media filing center, bleary eyed after two nights of aggressive socializing. Wisconsin is supposed to be famous for its beer and cheese — but it’s overcooked burgers and watery cold brew that have been keeping your devoted correspondent functional in the sweltering Midwest heat. (If anyone has any food recommendations in Milwaukee, please, for the love of God, email them to cockburn@thespectator.com.) His first social soirée was an impromptu Monday cocktail with Liz Truss, the former British PM who was recently de-MP’d in Labour’s landslide victory.

In the same building where he once descended down a golden elevator and embarked on a campaign that would forever change American politics, this morning Donald Trump lumbered up to the mic in New York City to launch napalm at all his enemies, particularly Judge Juan Merchan, Alvin Bragg and Michael Cohen — who he didn't mention by name, other than calling him a "sleazebag" and saying that he didn't qualify as a "fixer." The idea of a gag order for this man is so ridiculous, I love that they even tried to do it. It was classic Trump: meandering, angry, darkly comic, rhetorical guns blasting away at everyone around him, golden hair blown out and wearing a bright crimson tie as wide as his head.

There’s something in the water in New York’s 3rd district, which continues to pump out interesting candidates for Congress. Of course, we had George Santos. Enough said there. Then after the colorful Santos was expelled from Congress in a historic vote, Republicans nominated Mazi Pilip, an IDF veteran and Ethiopian immigrant, who lost in a special election to Democrat Tom Suozzi, who is... vastly less interesting than his GOP counterparts. But now, Suozzi could face another colorful Republican — Bill Cotter, formerly known as Barstool Sports’s Billy Football, who joined the race a few weeks ago, and has been gathering the requisite number of signatures to appear on the primary ballot in June.

Donald Trump has a plan to turn the Republic National Committee into a “seamless operation” — and it involves cleaning house. The RNC has historically been headed by presidential loyalists. In the 1980s, Ronald Reagan's daughter, Maureen, even served as its chair. Still, recent shake-ups within the committee have Cockburn wondering if the RNC has become the TNC.  The overhauling of the RNC started earlier this week when sixty employees were told that they were no longer needed at the organization, including five senior staff, according to a source with direct knowledge of the matter. The layoffs represent more than a quarter of the current 200-man staff.  The purge comes just days after Trump’s handpicked officers took over at the RNC.

In the end, the lesson of Nikki Haley's run is that Donald Trump defeated every wing of the Republican Party along the way to becoming its champion. In 2016, he beat the avatar of Tea Party constitutional populism in Ted Cruz. In 2024, he bested the reformist culture war version of himself in Ron DeSantis, and then dispatched the post-George W. Bush-era form of suburbanite compassionate conservatism in Haley, who speaks in a combination of defense-industry jargon and Bible verses. He even brought the older era of Chamber of Commerce Federalist Society Reaganite to heel, with Mitch McConnell endorsing him today. Trump's dominance over the GOP is total. The problem Trump has, of course, is that he can't win just with that authoritative GOP support.

Donald Trump is cleaning up in the Republican primaries on Super Tuesday. The 45th president has secured victories in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Virginia. Nikki Haley's sole victory is in Vermont. President Biden also bagged easy wins in Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont and Virginia. The Democrats also held caucuses in American Samoa and Iowa on Tuesday. Biden won Iowa with 91 percent of the vote, but lost American Samoa to unknown businessman Jason Palmer.

Elvis has left the building. So has Trump, and he left victorious. The “primary show” will have a few encores, mainly on March 5 (Super Tuesday), when multiple states vote, but the outcome is certain. With his decisive win in South Carolina, Donald Trump effectively clinched the Republican nomination. He easily defeated his last opponent, Nikki Haley, in her home state. Trump’s victory there follows those in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. Trump has carried every state. No one else has come close. Why did Trump win? For two reasons. First, the voters in these contests are the party’s activist base, and Trump fundamentally reshaped that base during his first run for president and his White House years.

Greenville, South Carolina I’ve now seen three versions of Donald Trump in the state where I grew up. In 2016, he was the impassioned underdog, battling against Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz in a state many in the national media assumed would decide against a New York limousine liberal and stop the Trump Train in its tracks. In 2020, he was the prideful, over-the-top champion of the conservative cause — he bellowed through a sweaty speech, calling out to the universal Republican endorsements in the audience, playing the hits to a stadium crowd mere weeks before the word "coronavirus" was known to the average American.

How is Nikki Haley going to stage an upset in her home state’s Republican primary later this month? By appealing to a key conservative constituency: Saturday Night Live viewers. Haley appeared “live from New York” this evening in a cold open aping a Donald Trump town hall. (She even got to say the line!) Watch it here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?

Cockburn wondered last week what would happen to anti-MAGA voters after their chosen candidates dropped out of the race. Would they be able to return to the Trump fold? Though Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis have reignited their months-long feud after the Florida governor dropped out Sunday, it’s last woman standing Nikki Haley who has drawn the bulk of Trump’s ire since. Taking a page from Kari Lake’s “get the hell out” playbook, Trump decreed on Truth Social Wednesday night that Haley donors will be blacklisted from his campaign.  “Anyone that makes a ‘Contribution’ to Birdbrain, from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp. We don’t want them, and we will not accept them, because we Put America First, and ALWAYS WILL,” Trump posted.

The US primaries are over. Trump whacked Nikki Haley in New Hampshire; if she could win anywhere it was there, and she didn’t, so she’s done. Joe Biden didn’t even bother. The result? The most inadequate, boring primary season in living memory. North Korean elections are more unpredictable than this. For those of us who love politics, primaries are usually more interesting than the November general election. In the general, candidates run to the center; in the primary, they run to the edges, articulating a philosophy and galvanizing its constituency. You get contests of insider versus outsider (Clinton versus Obama, 2008); establishment versus radical (Clinton versus Sanders, 2016).

Nashua, New Hampshire Former president Donald Trump won the GOP primary contest in New Hampshire on Tuesday night, dulling any perceived momentum behind former UN ambassador and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley. A crowd of supporters at an election night watch party in Nashua cheered as Fox News called the race for Trump shortly after 8 p.m. The Associated Press pulled the trigger a few minutes earlier for the former president. The Beatles’ “Revolution” played on speakers (“You know it’s gonna be alright”) as the group celebrated.