Migration

Ukip has unveiled its new Aussie-style immigration policy, just a week after the latest bad immigration news for the government. The news was bad only in a sense, as high immigration levels are a symptom of a healthy economy; after all, the Venezuelan government doesn’t break into a sweat every time the immigration figures come in, thanks to the genius of Chavenomics. But it’s all bad news for the Tories because most people would like restrictions on the rate of population growth, and of immigration-led social change, and the government made promises it clearly couldn’t keep.

Now we know why the Home Secretary did not commit the ‘tens of thousands’ immigration pledge rashly made by David Cameron in opposition. Britain is midway through a job creation miracle, with more jobs created each day in the UK than the on rest of the continent put together. And people with every right to live in Britain are coming here to work – as you might expect. Net migration from within the EU is now 75pc higher than when Cameron became Prime Minister. The chart below shows how immigration, which was coming down at first as Theresa May succeeded with her pledge to cut non-EU immigration, is now out of control again. It's not a great basis on which to fight Ukip at the general election.

Wonderful: Labour has a new slogan on immigration, which appears to be the Conservatives’ old slogan from 2005, the one that Labour said was racist. I have far more respect for any Labour politician who actually defends their record on mass immigration – only a fifth of which was from Europe, incidentally, although that gets at least four-fifths of the coverage – than those who goes along with the current fashion. Someone who said that diversity made us more tolerant and kinder and was culturally-enriching; and that the economic benefits, although they are more helpful to the rich than the poor, are worth the downsides.

When is a target not a target? Theresa May seems quite keen for us to think that Tory pledge to bring migration down to the tens of thousands was a 'comment' or an 'aim', now that it doesn't look as though that's going to be possible in time for the election. Today Number 10 did insist that there had been no change in the target, but also refused to call it a 'promise'. The Prime Minister's official spokesman said: 'There's no change. That remains the objective towards which the Prime Minister and others are working… It has always been the objective. There's been no change, the tens of thousands by the end of this Parliament.

It is easy to understand David Cameron’s desire to make a ‘game changing’ speech on EU immigration. Voters are telling pollsters it is the issue that most concerns them, Ukip are breathing down his neck and it could be the swing issue in any future EU referendum. However, he needs to play his cards carefully. By making a ‘big pledge’ on reducing numbers, the risk is that Mr Cameron needlessly raises expectations that are undeliverable and draws attention away from negotiable reforms to EU migrants’ access to the British welfare system that would concretely address the inconsistencies and perverse incentives undermining public confidence in free movement.

Well, I don’t know how José Manuel Barroso came across in the broadcast accounts of his address to Chatham House today but in person the man was geniality itself and rather impressive with it. He shares the mildly irritating tendency of EU bigwigs to attribute to the European Union developments that would have happened without it – recalling that within memory, Europe had moved from totalitarian regimes in half of its states to a democratic and peaceful unity. But in general, he gave the impression of trying to be as straight as he could with his answers. In laying stress on Britain’s freedom to stay outside the eurozone and the Schengen area, he rather skated over the reality that would-be EU entrants don’t have any choice in the matter.

The Tories will announce a big new policy on freedom of movement in the European Union, David Cameron told his MPs tonight. At a meeting of the Parliamentary party, the Tory leader promised what one Eurosceptic attendee described as a 'big bang' announcement on freedom of movement. Apparently this pleased those there no end, even those usually critical of the Prime Minister. MPs were also told they are expected to visit Rochester to campaign at least three times, and the cabinet five times, which is clearly an intervention from Lynton Crosby as the whips had decided at the end of last week that they wouldn't bother. This was what one source close to the PM described as 'a call to arms for us all'.

George Osborne's interview today with the Sun on Sunday does show the Conservatives are starting to see a little bit of sense about their net migration target. They're starting to realise that they aren't going to meet it when they can only control non-EU migration. It's surprising, really, that it's taken them so long to realise that the target was going to be a bit tricky to meet. In this week's magazine, Douglas Murray argues that Cameron will need to listen - really listen - to voters' concerns about immigration if he is to have a hope of winning next year: 'Because the deep, underlying story of last week is clear: the British public have made the connection between the EU and mass immigration. They do not like the latter and they blame it on the former.

The inconveniently-timed net migration figures are out this morning, and they're not good for the Prime Minister's pledge to get immigration into the 'tens of thousands' by the general election. The Office for National Statistics estimates that net long-term migration to the UK was 212,000 in 2013. This is a rise—one the ONS says is 'not a statistically significant increase'—from 177,000 the previous year. But what is 'significant' is the increase in the number of EU migrants – 201,000 EU citizens came to the UK in 2013, up from 158,000 the previous year. [datawrapper chart="http://static.spectator.co.uk/ZtESo/index.

The next set of net migration figures are, conveniently, released on the day of the European and local elections. Some wonder whether this will add grist to the mill of those on the Tory Right who want to cause trouble for Cameron as they can demand that he crack down further on immigration. But I've discovered that if there is one demand eurosceptics will make, it will be for the Prime Minister to scrap the target, rather than try harder to meet it. The reasoning behind this is that the Prime Minister could argue that freedom of movement in the European Union makes it impossible for the Conservatives to have any real chance of meeting this target, save by introducing ever-tougher restrictions on non-EU immigration.

Globalisation is like a rising tide; we’re all living in our separate ponds with their own little social ecosystems until the floodwater starts to rise and turns them into one big lake. Many fish, especially, the big ones, are going to benefit but many will suffer in this frightening new world. It is that fear which Ukip’s new posters are aimed at addressing (or exploiting, depending on your view). Sure, Europe is about free movement of labour, but that movement is highly imbalanced and has been for a number of years. Far more people are seeking to come from southern and eastern Europe to work in Britain than vice versa, and therefore that puts pressure on some British workers (let alone the question of infrastructure).

How fitting that on the day Angela Merkel pops in to London to natter about EU reform, new figures show a big increase in net migration driven by a rise in immigration from within the European Union to the UK. Net migration in the year to September 2013 rose from 154,000 the previous year to 212,000. This morning, the Prime Minister's official spokesman said that it was 'absolutely the objective' to reduce net migration to below 100,000 by 2015. But today's figures are a blow to the government's chances of doing that. The problem is that while the Home Office is doing its best to control what it can control - non-EU migration fell to 141,000 last year - what it cannot control is out of control. The chart below shows a big rise in EU migration, with numbers doubling in a year.