Michael gove

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/spectatorpodcastspecial-davidcameronseudeal/media.mp3" title="Isabel Hardman, James Forsyth and Fraser Nelson discuss the EU deal" startat=18] Listen [/audioplayer] As the EU Council meeting in Brussels drags on and on, the chances of a Cabinet meeting this evening are receding. But based on discussions I’ve had, the Cameron circle now seem pretty much resigned to losing Michael Gove to the Out campaign once the deal is done. If Gove has gone to Out, it will be a shot of pure adrenaline for the Out campaign. It will give it intellectual respectability and genuine Cabinet heft. The move will also confirm Gove’s status as a conviction politician. No one seems to know what Boris Johnson will do.

David Cameron heads to Brussels today still not knowing which Tory big beasts he will have supporting him in the referendum campaign. The Cameron circle had always been confident that Boris Johnson would ultimately back staying In. But that confidence has been shaken by yesterday’s meeting between Boris and the PM. Part of the problem is that what Boris has always said that he wants on sovereignty is very hard, if not impossible, to actually deliver. If the Cameron circle is worried about Boris, it seems increasingly resigned to losing Michael Gove to the Out side. As I say in the column this week, an immense amount of emotional energy has gone into trying to persuade the Justice Secretary not to back Out.

If all goes according to David Cameron’s plan, he’ll have his EU deal by this time next week. But Downing Street still can’t be sure of which Tory heavyweights will be with Cameron come the referendum campaign, and which won’t. Even more than Boris Johnson, Michael Gove is causing Downing Street angst. As I report in The Sun today, Gove is ‘definitely wobbling’ according to one Downing Street source. Downing Street think the chances of him backing Out have increased significantly in the last 10 days or so. Gove himself has been telling people that he won’t make a decision until the deal is done. But those around him are now preparing for Gove coming Out.

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/thenextrefugeecrisis/media.mp3" title="James Forsyth and Fraser Nelson discuss the PM's argument for staying in" startat=763] Listen [/audioplayer]It is normally in the final, frantic days of a campaign that a multitude of dubious claims are made. But when it comes to the EU referendum, this has begun before the date of the vote has even been set. We’re told that anti-terrorism measures would be damaged by a British exit from the European Union, that migrant camps would sprout up in the garden of England and Six Nations rugby would never be the same again.

[audioplayer src="http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/fightingovercrumbs-euroscepticsandtheeudeal/media.mp3" title="James Forsyth and Vote Leave's Stephen Parkinson discuss Euroscepticsm"] The Leave campaigns continue to bicker with each other in increasingly absurd fashion, but it would be wrong to think that everything is going the In campaign’s way. Number 10, as I write in The Sun today, have been taken aback by the sheer scale of the hostility to the deal. There have been some very tense meetings in Downing Street this week. Cameron himself is, I understand, acutely aware of how volatile the situation is and how quickly the referendum could turn. But those around him are more confident.

You can tell when Michael Gove is driving all over another one of the policies of his predecessor Chris Grayling purely by the volume of incredibly polite language and fulsome praise that he deploys when doing so. In a written ministerial statement published today, the Justice Secretary announces that he will not be going ahead with major changes to the legal aid system designed by Grayling when he was Justice Secretary. The statement says the following: I would like to place on the record my gratitude for the determined, yet sensitive, way in which my predecessors pursued these economies. Gove also praises the ‘careful negotiation’ that Grayling carried out on the changes.

Before the election, the Tories talked about introducing a British Bill of Rights in their first 100 days in office. But eight months on from the election, the government hasn’t even started consulting on it yet. Some of this delay is understandable. When Michael Gove was made Justice Secretary, he wanted to work out his own solution to this problem. But the timetable has just kept slipping. After the election, we were told proposals would come in the autumn. Then, it was before the end of the year. Then in December, in the New Year. Yet, we still haven’t seen these proposals—and won’t in the next few weeks either. But, as I write in The Sun this morning, the bill is now pretty much ready.

David Cameron might have announced this week that Cabinet Ministers will be allowed to campaign for Out come the EU referendum. But Downing Street is doing what it can to limit how many ministers take up this offer. At the moment, the consensus view around the Cabinet table is that four Cabinet Ministers are going to be for Out—Chris Grayling, Theresa Villiers, John Whittingdale and IDS—with another—Priti Patel—highly likely to. As I say in The Sun today, if Cameron can keep the number of Cabinet Outers down to four or five, Number 10 will be delighted. Cameron will be able to say that the vast majority of the Cabinet support staying In and he’ll have denied the Out campaign, the political leadership it needs.

Michael Gove’s tenure as Justice Secretary has been notable for U-turns on the most controversial things done by his predecessor, Chris Grayling. At Justice Questions in the Commons today, Gove confirmed another policy reversal to MPs which emerged last week: the criminal courts charge. Since April, the charge meant that convicted criminals had to pay £150 - £1,200 towards to cost of their cases. Some felt the criminal courts charge was unfair, acting as a perverse incentive to plead guilty, and 50 magistrates resigned in protest.

That 98 per cent of junior doctors have voted in favour of strike action over their new contract shows the extent of the stand-off between the medical profession and Jeremy Hunt. It is not possible that all the members of the BMA who turned out to vote (76 per cent) are raving left-wingers. Most of them weren’t particularly politicised before this dispute. The question that a number of Tory MPs and ministers are asking is whether a generation of people who, given their education and income bracket, fall quite naturally into the group normally pretty likely to vote Tory are now never going to do so because of the bad blood between the medics and the government on this matter.