Labour party

Ed Balls is Having a Good Day

From our UK edition

Well, the government would have done better to read Fraser's response to the fall in GDP before they went and blamed much of the 0.5% decrease on the inclement weather. Cue "Wrong kind of snow" jokes everywhere. And, frankly, Tories would be laughing all the way to the nearest TV studio had Gordon Brown ever suggested something similar. Better, surely, to agree that the figures are disappointing but stress that they are the first and therefore somewhat provisional numbers that may well be revised in due course. Not a great line to sell but some days you take a beating and just make things worse by trying to wriggle out of it. But what this shows, I think, is how Labour have benefited from Mrs Alan Johnson's adventures.

Ed Balls: I don’t think a double dip is the most likely outcome

From our UK edition

And this, folks, is a day where Ed Balls is having his cake and eating it too. Not only is he basking in the grim light of the growth figures, but he is using the opportunity to recast his own stance on the economy. Speaking on the Daily Politics just now, he de-emphasised the argument that in-year cuts were to blame for today's numbers, instead claiming that people have "changed their behaviour in anticipation of what's coming in the future." And, more ear-catching still, he added: "I don't think [a double dip] is the most likely outcome." This, as Fraser suggested earlier, is surely necessary caution on Balls's part. He can't go too far with the dread warnings, lest the economy pick up again next quarter.

What to make of the GDP fall?

From our UK edition

"Recession here we come, a snow-dabbed double-dip" tweeted Faisal Islam, Channel Four's economics editor. He summed up much of the hysterical reaction. It may spoil a good story, but here is what I suspect the broadcasters won't tell you today. 1. Erratic GDP swings are common when recovering from a recession. Remember how stunned everyone was with the surging quarter three data? Now, we're all shocked by plunging quarter four figures. I'd advise CoffeeHousers to treat these two imposters just the same. After the 80s recession, quarterly growth rates swung between -0.7 percent and 1.5 percent. Following the ERM-induced recession in the 90s, growth rates swung between -0.2 percent and 0.5 percent. A swallow does not make a summer.

Does it matter what the government is called?

From our UK edition

Danny Finkelstein has written an interesting post objecting to Channel 4 referring to the ‘Conservative-led coalition’ last night. Finkelstein’s objection, and a valid one to my mind, is that ‘Conservative-led’ makes a judgment about the nature of the coalition. Of course, this whole spat has been set off by a clever letter from Ed Miliband’s communications director Tom Baldwin to broadcasters objecting to their use of the word ‘coalition’ to describe the government on the grounds that it implies that the government is a collaborative enterprise. I suspect that this whole row will rumble on for a while yet. It is tempting to dismiss the whole thing as absurd, as only of interest to a few journalists and spin doctors.

Re-introducing Ed

From our UK edition

We already knew Ed Balls was behind Gordon Brown’s economic policy. He devised the policy on spending that left Britain with the worst deficit heading into the crisis, and wrote the bank regulations that his colleague Douglas Alexander attacked earlier today.   What we have discovered today, from Balls’ first foray into economic policy as Shadow Chancellor, is that he was also behind the old Brown ploy of twisted facts and absurd assertions.   First, he claimed the public finances are better than the Treasury forecast. Yet the independent Office for Budget Responsibility found that the structural deficit – the hole we have to fix - was worse than Labour admitted.

Exposing the con man

From our UK edition

  To the chagrin of CoffeeHousers, I have long rated Ed Balls and his abilities. He has a degree of brilliance, albeit tragically deployed in the services of a destructive economic agenda. But as we welcome him back, it’s worth reminding ourselves that his abilities are of a specific type. He understands economics (even though he did PPE) but his speciality is in creative accounting. His only tactic is to spend, borrow and cover both up by cooking the books. He is a trickster, not an economist. More Arthur Daley than Arthur Laffer. In my News of the World column today (£) I say he is dangerous to Labour as well as the Tories, perhaps more so. But it’s worth recapping what we’re dealing with.

And what about the Lib Dems?

From our UK edition

After the gales of recent weeks, the past few days must have been relatively blissful for the Lib Dems. No fake constituents with hidden dictaphones. No massive student protests. No especial focus on their opinion poll ratings. But, instead, a mephitic heap of problems, or at least embarrassments, for Labour and the Tories. Warsi, Johnson, Coulson, even EMAs – Clegg & Co. have been spared the worst of it. Which isn't to say that the Lib Dems will be unaffected by recent events. For instance, as Paul Goodman suggests, Andy Coulson's departure unsettles the delicate balance of the coalition – and that will always have ramifications, however minute, for the yellow half of it. Yet it's the rise of Balls that may prove more significant for the Lib Dems.

Two days, two major resignations

From our UK edition

Of the two resignations of the past 24 hours, it is Alan Johnson’s that will change the contours of politics. The appointment of Ed Balls makes the dividing line on the economy far starker. But the Coulson resignation is still a highly significant moment. Those Tories who worked with Coulson are downcast today and will brook no discussion of what the whole episode says about Cameron’s judgment. But there’s little doubt that the PM has been harmed by this episode. Not in any limb-threatening way but harmed nevertheless. Cameron also needs a find to way to organise his operation to both ensure that there is someone at the table who understands the instincts and aspirations of C1 voters, can firefight stories and fulfill the strategic communication role.

How things are different now that Balls is shadow chancellor

From our UK edition

The timing could hardly have been more resonant. On the day that Tony Blair is paraded, once again, in front of the Iraq Inquiry, Team Brown is firmly back in charge of the Labour party. For, I'm sure you've noticed CoffeeHousers, three of the four great shadow offices of state are occupied by former members of the Brown coterie: Ed Miliband, Ed Balls and Yvette Cooper. The fourth belongs to someone who doesn't sit easily in either half of the TB-GB divide: Douglas Alexander. The question, of course, is what this means for Labour's economic policy. And the answer according to Miliband is "nothing much". The Labour leader has been keen to stress that his party's fiscal plans remain largely unchanged by Balls' ascension.

Renaissance Balls

From our UK edition

Balls is back. The author of Gordon Brown's economic policies for 15 years. The man who bears more responsibility for anyone else - other than Brown - for the asset bubble and the consequent crash. But I suspect that, right now, Theresa May is doing cartwheels and George Osborne cursing. Balls, for all his many drawbacks, is the most ferocious attack dog there is. His brilliance (and I hate using that word) at using numbers as weapons far surprassed anything the Tories could manage in Opposition. His policies are reckless: to borrow, and to hell with the consequences. His modus operandi is to launch around-the-clock attacks. He has powerful media contacts, and uses them to full effect. He is the most able fighter in Labour's frontbench, as he proved in the leadership contest.

Balls replaces Alan Johnson

From our UK edition

Ed Miliband has just taken the biggest risk of his leadership in appointing Ed Balls as his shadow Chancellor. Balls’ is not a man who take orders and his view on the deficit is noticeably different from Ed Miliband’s. He is also the person most closely associated with Gordon Brown’s economic record. George Osborne will relish this fight. During the vacuum between Ed Miliband winning the leadership and the shadow Cabinet elections, Osborne prepared for facing Balls. He told friends, ‘we’ve circled around each other long enough. It is time to get on with it now.

Johnson resigns as Shadow Chancellor

From our UK edition

James Kirkup is reporting a rumour that Alan Johnson is to resign. More to follow. UPDATE: He has resigned. Sky News is reporting that Johnson has gone for personal reasons. That may be so - and because of the timing (the government was having the day from hell until ten to five this evening) I suspect that it is - but it will be a hard line to hold, given Johnson's fraught tenure and his very public disagreements with a leader he didn't back in the first place. A serious problem for Miliband, then, just as his fledgling leadership was beginning to pick up after Oldham.

A soporific session

From our UK edition

Labour are on the up. They strolled Oldham. They’ve recruited great armies of Clegg’s defectors. And they’d win a majority if a general election were held tomorrow. There’s been a lot of excited talk in Westminster about Tom Baldwin, Labour’s new communications attack-dog, coming in with his fangs bared and sharpening up their tactics. Well, it ain’t working so far, if PMQs is anything to go by. Ed Miliband had his dentures in today. He was humourless, slow to react and sometimes inaudible. His questions didn’t resemble even the most basic PMQs battle-plan, namely, a pre-meditated onslaught culminating in a simple powerful message presented in a memorable one-liner.

PMQs live blog | 19 January 2011

From our UK edition

VERDICT: No winners, and no real losers, from this week's PMQs. Miliband's questions were insistent and straightforward. Cameron's answers were forceful and, in themselves, fairly persuasive. A no-score draw, then, if you want to look at it like that. There were one or two worrying leitmotifs for the coalition, though. First, the PM's tendency towards grouchiness under fire; far less pronounced than it was last week, but still present. And then the continuing absence of any clear explanation of the NHS reforms, beyond "well, we had to change what was there previously." The PM has a point about cancer survival rates and the like, but he's not yet setting out how the coalition's policies will make a difference. 1230: And that's it. My quick verdict shortly.

Is it worth paying young people to stay on at school?

From our UK edition

Today's political news is brought to you by the letters E, M and A. Eeeema. While the political establishment debates the abolition of EMA – the Educational Maintenance Allowance – inside Parliament, campaigners will be protesting against it on the streets outside. The police, who are used to these things by now, have already set up the barricades. Behind all the fuss and froth, the argument is really this: is EMA good value? The coalition claim that paying 16-18 year-olds up to £30 a week to stay on at school is not only expensive, but also wasteful.

Miliband can’t credibly complain about both inflation and growth

From our UK edition

Today’s shocking inflation figures have sparked a fascinating debate. I laid out my take earlier, and I thought CoffeeHousers may appreciate a different perspective. Matthew Hancock MP is a member of the Public Accounts Committee, former economist at the Bank of England and former chief of staff to George Osborne. Fraser Nelson. Last week, growth. This week, inflation. Ed Miliband is complaining about both. But the trouble is: the two can’t be taken in isolation. For the main weapon against inflation is for the Bank of England to raise interest rates. Yet the main weapon to support growth is for the Bank of England to keep interest rates lower for longer. You can’t credibly complain about both.

Laws: the 50 percent rate should be abolished asap

From our UK edition

David Laws has penned a robust defence of the coalition’s economic policies for The Guardian. He points out that the big dividing lines in politics are on the economy and then goes onto say: 'Ed Miliband is betting that economic recovery will be derailed, and while trying to reconcile many divergent views in his party, he has generally taken the position that cuts should be delayed and that high tax rates (including the 50% tax rate) should be retained. Ed is getting all the big economic decisions wrong, and leading his party into an economic policy cul-de-sac.

MPs turn on PFI

From our UK edition

There is nothing like being wise after the event. The Public Accounts Committee has turned on the private finance initiative, saying there is ‘no clear evidence’ that PFI delivers more value for money and no evidence that taxpayers have shared the profits. The committee reported: 'There were instances where PFI may have been used where there was no evidence that it was the best procurement route. Local authorities and health trusts used PFI because there was no realistic alternative, not because it represented best value for money. The use of PFI and its alternatives should now be robustly evaluated. Looking back at PFI procurements, the government should also do more to find out where and why PFI works best and capture the lessons.

Cameron’s public service reforms are still stuck in New Labour’s intellectual territory

From our UK edition

The man known to the Cameroons as ‘The Master’ casts a long shadow. David Cameron has re-launched his public service reform agenda and there was more of a whiff of Blair in the air. His speech was understated. He eschewed references to radicalism and appealed to continuity instead. The favoured phrase of the moment is ‘evolution not revolution’, and Cameron traced the lineage of his reforms to those of the thwarted Blair administration (and the market reforms of the Thatcher and Major years). He was so deep in New Labour’s intellectual territory that he was at pains to stress that the ‘spending taps have not been turned off’.

Labour may be doing alright, but Miliband is still dodgy on the public finances

From our UK edition

Ed Miliband's leadership may be young, but his trickery on the public finances is already well worn. We got it all in his interview with Andrew Marr earlier – and then some. There was the claim that Labour "paid down the debt" (that I dealt with here). There was the claim that Labour's spending was responsible (my response here). And there was a straight-up lie about Miliband's forecast for a double-dip. So far, so Brown. What caught my ear, though, was this exchange: Andrew Marr: I mean Tony Blair said in his memoir that by 2005, he was worried that the party was spending too much. And Alistair Darling said actually it was about 2007, he was worried that the party had been spending too much - before the crash happened.