Iraq

I think I’ve finally worked out the time-honoured Jonathan Powell formula for promoting a new book: take which-ever group constitutes the most bloodthirsty terrorist organisation of the day — in this case IS, the warped Islamist force currently enslaving and beheading its way across Iraq and Syria — and create a media fizz by boldly declaring that sooner or later we’re going to have to negotiate with them. Powell’s predicted circumstances in which the ‘talking’ to IS should actually happen, however, are hedged with unrealised conditions. At other moments he will daringly hint that talking is best without any preconditions at all.

America and Britain are still fumbling for policies to deal with nationals joining the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. In Holland, meanwhile, authorities faced a more cheering task: sorting out Dutch motorbikers who've joined the Kurdish Peshmerga against Isis. To accomodate freelance counter-jihadists, the ever-progressive Dutch have amended their rules against joining foreign armies, Agence France-Presse reports. The three Dutch Peshmerga we know of so far belong to a biker club called 'No Surrender',  whose chief concerns were heretofore limited to motorcycling and brawling with Hell's Angels. Speaking of Hell's Angels, Dutch hog-heads aren't the first to take interest in a foreign freedom-fight.

The United States faces a very difficult task in Syria. It is trying to use air raids to contain and weaken ISIl. But, at the same time, it is trying to prevent the Assad regime from turning this intervention to its advantage. However, as the Washington Post reports today, the Assad regime have taken advantage of ISIl being pinned back to turn their fire on the moderate rebels, the very group that the US is trying to help. As the situation in Iraq is demonstrating, air strikes against ISIl can be effective when paired with ground operations. But in Syria, the US has no effective allies on the ground. The Turks could assist. But they are sitting on their hands. They aren’t even coming to the relief of Kobani, which sits on the Syrian Turkish border.

The problem posed by Islamic State will, sadly, not be dealt with quickly. The New York Times reports that John R. Allen, the retired US general coordinating the international coalition against IS, has warned that it will take up to a year before Iraqi forces are ready to try and re-take Mosul.   Given that IS is more firmly entrenched in Syria than Iraq, this suggests that defeating it there will take even longer. Indeed, the Syrian problem is compounded by the fact that there are not credible ground forces there to take the fight to IS.   Air strikes against IS are aimed more at disrupting its momentum and containing it than eliminating it.

Today's Cabinet meeting agreed the following motion on attacking Isis in Iraq.