Iran

This week there were rumblings that war with Iran may be closer than most people thought. In a piece for the Spectator in 2004, Andrew Gilligan argued that even with a nuclear bomb, Iran would not be a threat to us: The case for not attacking Iran, Andrew Gilligan, 27 November 2004 Do the last few days remind you of anything, by any chance? Presidential heavy breathing about a ‘rogue’ Middle Eastern state; a supporting chorus of exiles with dramatic new claims; and a senior member of the US government bearing intelligence which turns out to be more spin than spine-chilling. Less than a month after the presidential election, the

Yesterday — as Pete pointed out earlier — the Obama administration filed criminal charges against two individuals, Manssor Arbabsiar and Gholam Shakuri, claiming that they worked with Mexican criminals and for the Iranian government on orders to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States. The plot has met with denials from Tehran, which “categorically and in the strongest terms condemn this shameful allegation.”     But, if true, the plot would only be the latest in a long-standing feud between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The struggle between Riyadh and Tehran has become the Middle East’s central conflict, overshadowing even the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The countries are divided by a Shiite-Sunni

The escalating crisis in Gaza and Sinai is worrying. Egypt is to recall its ambassador to Israel after 3 security personnel were killed in confused scuffles after an Israeli bus was bombed near the Sinai border; the Israeli embassy in Cairo has also been the scene of ill-tempered demonstrations and vandalism. Israel denies responsibility for the three deaths. Meanwhile, the Egyptian army is also conducting operations against Islamist militants in the increasingly lawless Sinai desert. Finally, the Arab League has called an emergency meeting after Israel retaliated to 30 rocket attacks by launching stiff operations in Gaza. This latest smattering of violence will be of great concern to friends of

What does Turkey actually think? That’s an issue that has been occupying many Europeans, as the vital NATO ally heads to the polls. On the one hand Turkey has in the last 10 years become more like the West: globalised, economically liberal and democratic. Turkey’s economy is now the world’s 16thlargest, the sixth largest in Europe. But, at the same time, questions arise about its recent policies: will it consolidate its democratic achievements, or is it threatened by a populist tyranny or even authoritarian rule? Certainly, many fear that Prime Minister Recyp Erdogan’s behaviour is moving Turkey away from the West, both in terms of internal policy and external alignmen.

The situation in Syria seems to be on a knife’s edge. Perhaps 80 protesters were killed by security forces during massive demonstrations yesterday. Checkpoints have gone up around all major cities, including Aleppo, Homs and Hama and of course Damascus. A friend who has been visiting the country this week says the situation is “pretty tense with police all around and no one, I mean almost no one on the streets. Taxis are not operating and there are no buses between cities.” The road south from Damascus to Deraa is heavily guarded to prevent the protesters moving from one city to the next. The key problem for Bashri al-Assad’s regime

Today’s news that Nato has intercepted an Iranian weapons shipment to the Taliban shows the threat Iran poses to international order and just how dangerous it would be for this regime to develop a nuclear capability. The shipment means that the regime, or at least part of it, wishes to assist those who want to kill Western troops and will back the forces of instability in the world. William Hague has released a statement calling Iran’s behaviour ‘completely unacceptable.’ But it is not clear what options Nato has beyond complaining about Iran’s actions. Any attempts to disrupt these supply routes on the other side of the border would be extremely

There are two significant developments in the Middle East to reflect on tonight. The New York Times is reporting that two Libyan air force jets conducted bombing raids on Monday. These raids appear to have been relatively ineffective. But they do suggest that there are still pilots prepared to carry out the regime’s orders, something that makes the issue of a no fly zone pertinent. But, perhaps, more important is that ground-level counter attacks by pro-Gaddafi forces have been repelled with relative ease by the rebels. Second, the Iranian government have, according to the BBC, removed Mir Hossein Mousavi, the ‘defeated’ 2009 presidential candidate, and Mehdi Karroub, the reformist politician,

The people of Egypt and Libya may have swung the spotlight onto their respective countries – but it is a spotlight that Iran is keen to exploit. Two of their warships have just passed through the Suez canal en route to Syria, the first to do so since 1979. They were given clearance by Egypt’s new military stewards a few days ago. On one level, Tehran’s actions are unimpeachable: Egypt cannot forbid access to Suez unless it is at war with the country at sail. But they are also, of course, designed to provoke. Why choose to do this now, other than to suggest something about the new latticework of