Inflation

The Labor Department reported this week that the December inflation rate hit 7 percent on an annualized basis, the highest since 1982. That was when the country was just beginning to recover from the inflation of the 1970s, the highest peacetime inflation in the nation’s history. The inflation rate for the last three months of 2021 was 9.1 percent. The price of gasoline is up almost 50 percent over a year ago, used cars are up 37 percent and furniture is up 17 percent. Shortages cause by supply-chain disruptions are partly responsible for the upsurge (supermarket shelves have been notably empty in recent days). As grocery and food workers return to work after the latest surge of Covid, those prices should begin to drop.

Observers had mixed reactions to yesterday’s announcement that inflation rose 7 percent last year. It all depended on where they fell on the ideological spectrum. President Joe Biden attempted to spin the report, saying that gas and fuel price growth was starting to slow, while acknowledging that more work needed to be done. He’d previously blamed rising inflation on used car prices and supply chain issues, swearing that increased government spending had nothing to do with it. The White House also compared America's Consumer Price Index report to indices in other countries, calling inflation a global phenomenon. Other Democrats blamed big business for the inflation jump.

No issue has been more politicized over the last six months than the sudden reemergence of inflation. For those keeping score at home — and many of us are whenever we buy our groceries — the latest report puts the current inflation rate at 6.8 percent, the highest since 1982. How one perceives the inflation threat depends as much on one’s political beliefs as it does on economics. Many conservatives are inclined to see this inflation as a more permanent fixture of the economy, believing it to be a consequence of the ongoing profligacy of the Biden administration. Democrats, in contrast, have tended to characterize the phenomenon as largely transitory and more a result of ongoing supply issues related to the pandemic.

The most important macroeconomic development of the last three decades has been the extraordinary growth of the Chinese economy. In 1990, it was largely a subsistence peasant economy with a negligible footprint in world trade. China now provides the largest share of world exports, and by some standards has already become the world’s largest economy. In 1990, the wage of an average Chinese worker was perhaps 1/40th of that of an American worker. By 2020, it was just about a quarter: a tenfold gain in just 30 years. Before the 18th century, all societies were basically subsistence peasant agricultural societies with a small upper layer of landowning nobles and clerics. Then the Industrial Revolution began.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its August jobs report this morning and the numbers are pretty dismal. While the unemployment rate dropped 0.2 percent to 5.2 percent, the number of new jobs created was only 235,000, far below expectations of about 700,000. In June the number was 962,000 and in July a whopping 1.1 million. And the unemployment was not spread evenly across the population. Unemployment went down for adult men and whites, but black unemployment went up significantly, from 8.2 percent in July to 8.8 percent in August. The surge in the Delta variant of the coronavirus is widely thought responsible.

Is President Joe Biden living up to expectations? It’s hard to say, since the expectations generated on his campaign trail were so murky. Biden made plenty of promises on the stump but only one thing was ever clear: he wasn’t Donald Trump. Beyond that, no one was really certain what iteration of Biden would enter the Oval Office on Inauguration Day. A pragmatic moderate or a progressive ideologue? A return-to-normal steady hand or a malarkey-scourging bomb thrower? The law-and-order author of the PATRIOT Act or the 'Black Lives Matter' anti-racist he suddenly morphed into last summer? Biden was so defined by who he wasn’t that no one ever quite worked out who he was. Now we have our answer. Whatever moderation was once attributed to him has been quickly abandoned.

President Biden wants to nearly double the tax on income from capital gains, currently at 20 percent, to 39.6 percent. Add to that the 3.8 percent Obamacare surcharge and you’re up to 43.4 percent. Many states tax capital gains as well and in 13 of them (plus the District of Columbia) the total tax on capital gains would be over 50 percent with the proposed new federal rate. In California it would be a staggering 56.7 percent. But it gets worse. Unlike the tax on regular income, the capital gains tax is not indexed for inflation. So with long-held assets, much of the gain is illusory. For instance, if you bought an asset in 1971 for $50,000 and sold it this year for $1,000,000, you would owe taxes on a nominal capital gain of $950,000. At 56.