Don’t bet on a blue wave in the US midterms
There are several reasons to think we won’t see a blue wave in this year’s US midterm elections. A basic one is that the Democratic party simply isn’t very popular. In late May, Donald Trump’s approval ratings in the RealClear polling aggregate stood around 40 per cent, which sounds bad. Yet Trump is more popular than his party – approval of the Republican brand was in the vicinity of 38 per cent. And the Democrats’ ratings were even worse – standing, or one might say wilting, at about 36 per cent. Those figures are not to be confused with “generic ballot” polling, which asks voters which party they would prefer in the forthcoming election. Democrats have lately enjoyed a lead of some seven points over the GOP in that category.
