Germany

There was a time not too long ago - less than three years to be exact - when German Chancellor Angela Merkel was at the very top of her game. She dominated German and European politics for over a decade with her clear, effective, but cautious leadership, watching as the German economy solidified its place as Europe’s economic engine. When Merkel decided to open Germany’s doors in August 2015 to hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing war and persecution in Syria, she became much more than the steward of Berlin’s economic power - she transformed overnight into the moral beacon of the European continent.

Why do the British turn to the Germans in their moments of European trouble? It never works. When Jacques Delors conceived his single currency plans, Mrs Thatcher over-relied on Karl Otto Pöhl at the Bundesbank to squash them. Dr Pöhl preferred to side with Helmut Kohl. When Britain was struggling to stay in the ERM in the late summer of 1992, the Major government put faith in what they thought were German promises to help them out. These failed to materialise. When David Cameron sought a new EU deal which would win him the 2016 referendum, he placed his greatest hopes in Angela Merkel, who offered him concessions so feeble that even he quickly gave up trying to sell them. Last week, Mrs May flew to Berlin.

German conservatives are in disarray. Caught between the migrant crisis and Merkel’s looming departure, they are fighting over their own political future. On the surface, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and their smaller sister-party, the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), argue over whether German police forces should be allowed to reject certain asylum seekers at the border. But the actual conflict runs deeper: it is not simply about whether or not to reject a few thousands refugees at the border; this is about the very future of German conservative politics. Merkel has now led German conservatives for thirteen years.

Obscured by the hubbub of rolling news and the cacophony of Twitter, an important anniversary has passed by virtually unnoticed. The Berlin Wall has now been down for longer than it was up. Berlin’s ‘Anti-Fascist Protection Barrier’ (as the Communists used to call it) stood for 28 years and three months, from August 1961 to November 1989. It’s now been down for 28 years and four months. Its fall reunited the two Germanies, and changed the course of history. So, 28 years on, what can Brits learn from German Reunification? What lessons does the Wiedervereinigung hold for us today? I filed my first report from Berlin in the first year of Reunification. Since then, I’ve returned to eastern Germany more times than I can count.

How did she do it? How has Angela Merkel hung on for a fourth term as German Chancellor after being written off so many times? When she's sworn in as Bundeskanzlerin today it'll be nearly thirteen years since she became leader of the Bundesrepublik. She's been read the last rites so often, yet after almost six months of backroom talks she's back in office. But is she really back in power? Merkel has promised Germany 'a grand coalition for the little people.' It's a catchy catchphrase but can she deliver? Yet another cosy alliance between her centre right CDU and the soft left SPD hardly feels like a new beginning for the millions of voters who deserted the two big parties at last September's election.

There’s no success like failure, as Bob Dylan once observed. Nearly six months after Germans went to the polls and gave the country’s coalition government a bloody nose, the same two parties are back in government in another ‘grand coalition’ – yet another unholy alliance of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats, with Angela Merkel at the helm again. Haven’t we been here several times before? Well, yes and no. Merkel’s centre-right CDU agreed a coalition deal with the soft-left SPD last month, but SPD protocol demanded they put this deal to their 464,000 members, and after an all-night count the result of that postal vote was announced this morning.

Here we go again. More than four months after Germans went to the polls and gave both main parties the thumbs down, Germany’s Christian Democrats and Social Democrats have finally agreed the terms of yet another Grand Coalition. True, the CDU and the SPD are still Germany’s two biggest parties. Between them they still command (just) over 50 percent of the national vote. But it’s a bitter irony that these two centrist parties are back in power together, after both recorded their worst election results since the war. Barring a catastrophe or a miracle (depending on your point of view) Angela Merkel will be Chancellor again, for a fourth term, but her centre-right CDU has made some big concessions. The SPD has retained control of the Foreign Affairs and Labour Ministries.

Is there anything quite so ponderous as the German political process? It certainly provides a useful illustration of the gulf between the British and German way of doing things. Theresa May took only a few days to hatch a deal with the DUP to stay in power. By contrast, Angela Merkel has been trying to build a new coalition since September, and there’s still no end in sight. The latest chapter in this epic saga was yesterday’s vote by Germany’s Social Democrats, on whether to approve the party’s preliminary coalition talks with Merkel’s Christian Democrats. After much agonised debate, SPD delegates voted in favour. So now, at long last, the SPD can finally enter formal coalition talks with the CDU.

Oh dear. More than three months since Germans went to the polls, and gave the CDU-SPD government a bloody nose, its politicians have finally emerged from the latest coalition talks - and the result is yet another cosy alliance between the CDU and the SPD. You’ve got to feel for German voters. In the Fatherland it seems no matter who you vote for, the so-called ‘grand coalition’ of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats almost always wins. It wasn’t meant to be this way. In September’s election the CDU and SPD both recorded their worst result since the Second World War – 33 percent for the CDU (down nearly 9 percent) and 20.5 percent for the SPD (down by more than 5 percent).