Financial history

On 18 September 1873, the leading American bank Jay Cooke & Co collapsed after a disastrous bet on the railroad boom. Like the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, it was a watershed moment in an unfolding global financial crisis. Yet ‘the first Great Depression’, which lasted until 1896, is now mostly forgotten, despite some intriguing parallels to contemporary events and a fascinating dramatis personae, which includes the Rothschilds, Ottoman sultans and Otto von Bismarck. The Panic of 1873 and its aftermath took place in a period of financial globalisation and technological growth, with bond markets funding the epochal projects of America’s first transcontinental railroad and the Suez Canal. US railroads were the artificial intelligence investment of the day.

In Money for Nothing, Thomas Levenson brings us into the story of the South Sea Bubble by writing about the development of the mathematics of odds and prediction. These advances were the beginnings of actuarial science: an understanding of risk that underpins insurance. We start with Isaac Newton and his role in attempting to stabilise the currency with something we now think of as quite normal: currency revaluation (Levenson’s previous work on Newton means he’s well prepared here). Much of early modern Europe based their currencies on silver, and fluctuations in the value of the metal were a recurring issue. Ongoing wars meant England was massively in debt, and having its coins worth more (as silver bullion) than their face value in pounds was a problem.