Finance

As I’ve said before, I hold no brief for Dr. Mike Lynch, the founder of the Cambridge-based software firm Autonomy, who faces fraud charges over the $11 billion takeover of his company by Hewlett-Packard (HP) in 2011. But I watched with foreboding as US marshals bagged Lynch under the lopsided 2003 US-UK extradition treaty and flew him to California — after the then home secretary Priti Patel declined to halt the process — and a judge there changed his pre-agreed bail conditions to place him under armed house arrest. Now, having comprehensively lost the argument that as a UK citizen running a UK company he should have been tried in British courts, Lynch is pleading “not guilty” to a San Francisco jury.

If G-SIBs were a gentlemen’s club rather than a category invented by the Basel-based Financial Stability Board, Credit Suisse would have been kicked down the front steps months ago. G-SIBs are the thirty "global systemically important banks" and even within that list, Credit Suisse counted among those with the lowest "required levels of addition capital buffers": in short, regulators considered it rock-solid. But that was a judgment on its end-2021 balance sheet, not its management. Credit Suisse has been so badly run for so long — so riven by tension between the dull Swiss wealth business it ought to have been and the global player it imagined itself to be — that some of us wondered how it survived.

It’s been a great year for those of us who didn’t have the nerve to invest in crypto. The value of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Luna crashed in May. Now, crypto giant FTX has gone bankrupt amid serious allegations of criminal misconduct. At last! For years, we kicked ourselves for not investing in Bitcoin, ETH, et cetera, when we had the chance. We heard tales of people who went from bums to millionaires, while we grinded in our offices and fretted about debts. Suddenly, we can reframe our risk aversion as foresight! Of course we knew that this would happen! Of course we did! Really, I shouldn’t joke about this crypto craziness. A lot of people have lost a lot of money. People will lose businesses, homes, and families. Some might even commit suicide.

Inflation last month increased to 8.5 percent over a year ago. That’s up from 7.9 percent just last month. It’s the sixth straight month that inflation has been over 6 percent, and the highest it’s been since 1981. The Fed will almost certainly be raising the funds rate steadily for the rest of the year, perhaps by fifty basis point increments instead of the usual twenty-five basis points. The trick, of course, is to rein in the inflation without causing a severe recession. The price of gasoline rose a staggering 18.3 percent in March alone. But even if you take out the cost of fuel and food, which tend to be much more volatile than other commodities, the “core inflation” was 6.5 percent, again the highest in decades.

Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water…late last year, a range of forecasts suggested that the likelihood of recession in the US, with knock-on effects for the rest of the developed world, had significantly diminished. Last summer, many economists were putting the chance of a substantial downturn at 50 percent but by November, Goldman Sachs had marked it down to 24 percent and Morgan Stanley to ‘around 20 percent’. Underlying this shift were strong corporate earnings and consumer spending, plus rising hopes of a settlement of US-China trade tensions. Last month saw a sell-off of safety-first government bonds reflecting the mood, and the FT’s end-of-year forecasts included a confident ‘No’ to ‘Will the US go into recession?