Europe

Tony Blair has plenty to say on the crisis in Syria in his interview in today's Times, as you might expect. But he also makes a few points on other aspects of foreign policy that are worth noting, particularly regarding Europe. The former Prime Minister tells Alice Thompson and Rachel Sylvester that David Cameron was wrong to offer a referendum on Britain's membership of the European Union. He says: 'We should at least pause for thought on this. I can tell you, people around the world now ask about this constantly, with an air of incredulity that Britain should even think of such a thing. Europe will be a lot less effective and probably less effectively run if Britain absents itself. If you pull out, that's a big decision. You're going to relegate your influence.

Credit where credit's due to the Tory spin machine for following up a good idea and putting pressure on Labour and the Lib Dems. This doesn't happen very often, so it's noteworthy. The party has launched a website called Let Britain Decide, which asks the public to back James Wharton's private member's bill for an EU referendum. It asks visitors to sign up to the campaign, lobby their MP, write to their local paper and brandish posters supporting the bill. A clever little paragraph on the site reads: 'Currently, only one of the main three political parties believes the British people deserve a say on Europe: the Conservatives. They are bringing forward a draft bill to legislate for an In-Out referendum before the end of 2017, following a renegotiation.

Defenders of the status quo in the European Union like to argue that 3 million jobs in this country currently depend on Britain's membership. Aside from the rather shaky maths behind that figure, it's striking that today Chris Grayling is making a stand on a Brussels plan that will cost jobs in this country, rather than boost them. The Sunday Telegraph reports the Justice Secretary accusing the European Commission of 'not living in the real world', with new data protection laws threatening to cost british businesses around £360 million a year. Grayling makes it very clear in his interview with the newspaper that he views these proposals as a direct threat not just to Britain's competitiveness, but to Europe's position in the 'global race' (that phrase isn't going away).

Only in The Guardian could Britain’s humorous disdain for the Eurovision Song Contest be linked to the rise of UKIP and the decline of the British Empire: 'I think Eurovision-bashing reflects a crisis of collective national identity in the UK; it's a way of expressing feelings of unprocessed anger, frustration, and loss about the UK's place in the rapidly changing Europe and in the world more broadly. The great British social theorist Paul Gilroy has written of the UK's post-colonial melancholy, a failure to properly process and accept the end of the country's status as world leader, and I think that's what's at play here. The UK has been suffering a prolonged national identity crisis since the 1950s, in which resistance to European integration became a crucial unifying factor.

The BBC loves nothing better than a narrative in which Tory anti-European eccentrics split their party, and a bewildered public votes Labour. It is certainly the case that some of the Tory sceptics are half-crazed by dislike of David Cameron. But the reason the subject keeps coming up is because it matters, and it remains unresolved. The Tory rebels understand this in straightforward electoral terms: the rise of Ukip threatens their seats, so they must do something about it. What is maddening is not so much Mr Cameron’s actual policy on Europe, but his patent longing to avoid the subject. His refusal to ‘bang on’ about Europe has brought about more banging on than ever. This is an extract from Charles Moore's Spectator's Notes in this week's magazine.

The last few days have seen the Tory party losing its collective head. Number 10 hopes that the publication of a draft referendum bill will begin to restore order. If this bill had been published by the leadership a week ago, it would have looked like a bold move. Today, it appeared panicky. But it is now out there, and any Tory backbencher who comes high up in the private members bill ballot on Thursday has a chance of guiding it through. I suspect if a vote could be won on second reading, the parliamentary dynamics of this debate would change yet again. What’ll be intriguing is to see how much the Tories campaign on this. David Cameron has already sent out an email to party supporters.

David Cameron was trying to work out how on earth to deal with the latest Europe row in his party. He heard them demanding legislation in this parliament for a referendum in the next, and this evening, after nearly a year of letter-writing and speeches, he announced that the Tory party will publish a draft bill doing just that. They still can't get it through Parliament through the government channels, so they'll be putting it up for any willing backbencher (of which there are many) to adopt in the Private Member's Bill ballot. Figures close to the Prime Minister were hinting to Tory MPs this evening there would be a move for legislation, but they were taken by surprise when, just a few hours later, the announcement was made that the draft bill will be published tomorrow. So is this it?

In a firecracker of an interview on the Andrew Marr Show, Michael Gove confirmed that if an EU referendum was held today he would vote out. But he followed this by saying to James Landale that he backed the Prime Minister’s plans to renegotiate and hoped that a satisfactory form of membership could be agreed. Significantly, Gove indicated that David Cameron would set out the Conservative ‘negotiating platform’ before the next election. This has been a key demand of Euro-sceptic Conservatives but one that Cameron has resisted. He is reluctant to provide anything akin to a renegotiation scorecard. Gove’s intervention changes the terms of debate.

As expected, the backbench Tory campaign for an EU referendum bill started as soon as the Queen's Speech proved not to contain one. The first battle is over an amendment expressing regret which John Baron, who is leading the charge on this, has tabled. The amendment, to the motion welcoming the Queen's Speech, simply reads: 'Respectfully regrets that an EU referendum bill was not included in the gracious speech.' This means that all Tory MPs who want a referendum, but in a different form, such as the mandate referendum that Bernard Jenkin and others have pushed for, can still sign the amendment. Baron tells me that he hasn't decided whether to push the amendment to a vote next week, but it seems there are plenty of Tory backbenchers who are expecting him to do so.

The latest extracts of the Andrew Adonis’ book on the 2010 coalition negotiations couldn’t have been better designed to stir up Tory backbench bad feeling to Nick Clegg. Adonis claims that in the final phone calls between Clegg and Brown, the Lib Dem leader kept stressing—you’ve guessed it—Europe. Adonis reports that Clegg told Brown:  'Following our conversation this afternoon I’m basically finding out how far I can push the Conservatives on Europe. I genuinely take to heart what you said about that. We need some sanity on Europe. We can’t seek to renegotiate. I’m trying my best...' I think this illustrates two things. First, how ideologically committed Clegg is to the European project.