Energy

If you think your bills are bad now, just wait

Forgive the doom-mongering, but the US, and especially the UK, may be dangerously on course for a sovereign debt crisis. Yet debt and deficits play a surprisingly minimal role in our countries’ politics. Overspending on borrowed money hardly featured in either nation’s elections of 2024. A Labour MP hoping for Andy Burnham to challenge Keir Starmer for her party’s leadership recently told Times Radio that investors would see the UK as “the best place to be” if only the government pursued “progressive policies that do speak to our communities.” She added darkly, “The markets will have to get into line” – which was like brandishing a saber at the heavens and threatening that the weather “will have to get into line”... or else!

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Letters: Reform and the Conservatives need each other

From our UK edition

Greco-Roman wrestling Sir: Rod Liddle suggests that some, perhaps many, middle-class voters on the right or centre right are deterred from supporting Reform because of their perception of the party as an unsavoury embarrassment (‘Can Reform smash its class ceiling?’, 23 May). Harold Macmillan in the second world war appreciated that the Americans – ‘great, big, vulgar, bustling people, more vigorous than we are’ – represented the equivalent of the Romans taking over from the declining, but perhaps more cerebral Greeks – the British. But he also argued: ‘We must run Allied Forces HQ [in Algiers] as the Greek slaves ran the operations of the Emperor Claudius.

The US is back in charge of the oil industry

The United States is getting sucked into a conflict in the Middle East, central banks are desperately trying to keep inflation under control and the world is facing an energy shock that may cripple the global economy. There are lots of ways the world looks very similar to the early 1970s. And yet, it is now clear that there is also one significant difference between now and then. Whereas half a century ago, the oil cartel OPEC was rising in power, with Tuesday’s shock decision by the United Arab Emirates to quit the group, it is clear that it is falling apart. In reality, the US is taking back control of the fossil fuel industry – and that is of huge geopolitical significance.

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We’re stuck at the worst possible oil price

A ceasefire has been agreed with Iran. The Straits of Hormuz will reopen. And the oil market will get back to normal very quickly. By Wednesday morning, it looked as if the energy crisis was over. Finance ministers will be breathing a sigh of relief as the crisis abates. But hold on. In reality, the truce is fragile, and huge amounts of supply have been taken out of the market. So long as that remains true, the price of oil, and with it the global economy, will remain stuck. The average price of $90 to $100 a barrel is not what anyone really thinks a barrel of oil is worth The price of oil has been on a wild ride ever since the United States and Israel started the attack on Iran a month ago.

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Why is Britain so exposed to rising energy prices?

From our UK edition

The IMF has warned Britain is particularly vulnerable to another spike in energy prices, and is more exposed than many of its European neighbours. Why is that the case? And does the government have any real plan to shield households and businesses from the fallout? With the Tories and Reform calling for the government to drill baby drill, why is the government avoiding a pretty obvious solution? James Heale speaks to Tim Shipman and Michael Simmons.

Why is Britain so exposed to rising energy prices?

Tim Shipman, Ben Clerkin, Maxwell Marlow & Hermione Eyre

From our UK edition

24 min listen

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: looking back to 1973, Tim Shipman wonders how bad the energy crisis could get; Ben Clerkin interviews Steve Hilton, the former Cameron aide running to be California’s next governor; Maxwell Marlow explains how to solve the student debt crisis; and finally, ‘disorientatingly enjoyable’ is the verdict of Hermione Eyre as she reviews David Hockney at the Serpentine. Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Tim Shipman, Ben Clerkin, Maxwell Marlow & Hermione Eyre

‘We’re into 1973 territory now’: How bad could the energy price crisis get?

The energy price surge caused by war in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through Westminster. It has pushed up inflation and the cost of borrowing, causing panic in the cabinet and the recognition that government intervention could be needed on a vast scale to support the cost of living. The Prime Minister told a private audience: ‘The assumption that the growth of the developed countries can proceed steadily on the basis of cheap energy has been shattered almost overnight.’ He further observed: ‘The problem is not simply one of inflation. It is the whole structure of the economy.’ In the Treasury there is something approaching a siege mentality. The Chancellor has ‘to spend [her] time firefighting’.

Britain’s Miliband supremacy

Labour MPs who want Wes Streeting to be their leader have, apparently, one great fear. If their man triggers a contest, they are terrified it will lead to Ed Miliband entering the race to stop the Health Secretary – and coming out on top. A Miliband premiership would, they worry, be the death of Labour. I’ve got news for them: we are already governed by Ed Miliband. This is now his administration. And they, and the rest of us, had better get used to it. Keir Starmer is no longer really in charge of this government – if he ever really was. He is Prime Minister in name only. His foreign policy, at this time of war, is Ed Miliband’s. His economic policy, Ed Miliband’s. His Chancellor, his political positioning, his very quest for meaning. All. Ed. Miliband.

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The Iran war has exposed the world’s maritime chokepoint

The war with Iran is exposing a vulnerability at the heart of the global gas market: the extraordinary concentration of liquefied natural gas supply in the Persian Gulf. Qatar alone accounts for roughly a fifth of global LNG exports, almost all of it passing through the narrow Strait of Hormuz. The conflict has illustrated how easily a single maritime chokepoint could interrupt a significant share of the world’s gas trade. Even if the war ends soon, the vulnerability it has exposed will not disappear President Donald Trump has suggested the conflict may soon end, describing the campaign as largely achieved and possibly over "very soon." The Gulf monarchies also appear eager for a quick resolution, even as they continue to face missile and drone attacks.

Where exactly is the Middle East?

From our UK edition

Less near Where exactly is the Middle East?  – The term was first popularised in an article by Alfred Thayer Mahan, a US academic on naval strategy, published in the National Review in 1902, proposing that western powers would need outposts like Gibraltar to serve their interests in the region, which he defined as the countries bordering the Persian Gulf. This distinguished it from the Near East, a now largely defunct term for the countries surrounding the eastern Mediterranean, including Turkey and the Balkans. Over the first half of the 20th century, the Middle East gradually consumed the Near East.

The Iran war has exacerbated the failure of European energy policies

The history of the global trading system is a story of narrow and vulnerable waterways: the Suez and Panama Canals, the St. Lawrence Seaway, the Straits of Dover and the Skagerrak, which defends the entrance to the Baltic. But none has the power to seize up the global economy as much as the Strait of Hormuz. Barely 30 miles wide at the narrowest point and bounded on one side by the state of Iran, this passage is used for a quarter of the world’s oil supplies and a fifth of its liquified natural gas (LNG).

energy

Ed Miliband must go

From our UK edition

Economic forecasting was created, J.K. Galbraith said, to make astrology look respectable. It is not difficult to imagine what the great Keynesian economist would have thought of Rachel Reeves’s Spring Statement this week. It was pure -crystal balls. The statement was redundant on delivery – redundancy being one of the few areas of growth in our economy, as the bleak unemployment figures amply attest. The developing conflict in the Middle East, which has unleashed precipitous oil and gas price rises, has rendered the Chancellor’s promises of future growth more unlikely than ever.

The glaring flaw in Keir Starmer’s AI plan

From our UK edition

Like Harold Wilson and his ill-defined ‘white heat of technology’, Keir Starmer has latched on to artificial intelligence as the saviour which is finally going to jolt Britain’s sluggish economy into growth. He once even suggested it would help fill potholes. A year ago he launched his AI Opportunities Action Plan, which is supposed to give the industry a huge boost through the designation of ‘AI Growth Zones’. But there is a big hole in Starmer’s plans. How are we going to power an industry that has become as voracious in its energy needs as the steel, shipbuilding and other heavy industries which it might one day replace? The high energy consumption of AI might not seem obvious to anyone playing around with ChatGPT. It all seems so clean and modern.

‘Pray your boilers don’t fail’: the Church of England is in the grip of eco-zealots

From our UK edition

It came to pass in 2020 that a decree went out from the General Synod that all the Church of England must be carbon net-zero by 2030. And this ruling was first made when Justin Welby was Archbishop of Canterbury. And all went to have a good hard look at their church heating systems, every one into his own vestry cupboard… How easy it is to issue a decree from on high; and how hard it is for the people on the ground to have to deal with its consequences.

Inside the Democrats’ AI skepticism

Bernie Sanders has been rolling out political hot takes for more than half a century, and in recent years his familiar socialist prescriptions have found a new focus: artificial intelligence. In 2023 he argued that workers who use it should be entitled to a four-day week. In October of last year he called on corporations who employ AI to be hit with a “robot tax”. And, just last month, he made his punchiest proposal yet: a complete moratorium on all AI data centers. In a characteristically plaintive video address, the Vermont Senator argued that halting data center construction would "give democracy a chance to catch up," preventing the benefits of AI from being monopolized by "the wealthiest people on Earth.

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Donald Trump’s end-of-year victory lap

As a mighty US armada bobs in the Caribbean off the shores of Venezuela, President Trump just addressed the nation from the Diplomatic Reception Room at the White House. With characteristic delicacy and understatement, he outlined the accomplishments of the first 11 months of his second term in office, lightly criticized his predecessor and cautiously opined about what the future held in store for the United States of America in the coming semiquincentennial year.  Well, some viewers may wish to dispute my emphases and assessments of tone. But let’s just say that the President’s short speech was vintage Trump. It was hyperbolic, yes, over the top, indubitably, but in essence 100 percent true.

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How damaging could the Ukraine corruption scandal be for Zelensky?

Andriy Yermak, the cryptic aide who shadowed Volodymyr Zelensky through every phase of the war, resigned Friday after anti-corruption investigators searched his office and house. Yermak was the center of Zelensky’s wartime team – and the consequences of his resignation could be far reaching.  In an evening address, Zelensky thanked Yermak for representing Ukraine’s negotiating position in recent tense talks with the United States, “as it should be” and stressed that it had “always been patriotic,” while urging Ukrainians to ignore rumors around the resignation. He said he would begin consultations on a new chief of staff immediately. With more talks looming, he underlined that, in wartime, every institution must stay focused on defending the state.

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The battle for Ukraine’s electric grid

On Sunday, Ukrainian drones attacked the Shatura Power Station located about 75 miles east of Moscow. The 1,500-megawatt gas-fired facility provides heat and power to the residents of Shatura, a town of about 33,000. The drone attack caused three transformers at the plant to catch fire, and a local official said, “All efforts are being taken to promptly restore heat supply,” to the town. According to Reuters, the drone strike was “one of Kyiv’s biggest attacks to date on a power station deep inside Russia.” Sunday’s attack on the power plant in Shatura came two weeks after Ukrainian drones and missiles hit power infrastructure in the Russian cities of Belgorod, Voronezh and Taganrog.

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Britain’s expensive energy problem – with Claire Coutinho

From our UK edition

16 min listen

Britain has an energy problem – while we produce some of the cleanest in the world, it's also the most expensive, and that's the case for almost every avenue of energy. On the day the Spectator hosts its Energy Summit in Westminster, a report commissioned by the Prime Minister has found that the UK is the most expensive place to produce nuclear energy. This is important for so many avenues of government – from future proofing for climate change, to reducing the burden households are facing through the cost-of-living crisis. Claire Coutinho, shadow secretary of state for energy, and political editor Tim Shipman join economics editor Michael Simmons to talk about tackling Britain's energy crisis and how energy policy could feed into Labour's budget in two days time.

Are we finally about to crack fusion energy?

From our UK edition

Imagine dropping a pea-sized capsule through a spherical chamber and hitting it with a colossal bolt of laser energy as it falls. If the capsule contains a mixture of deuterium and tritium, two heavy versions (isotopes) of hydrogen, then the atoms may fuse, turning into helium and emitting fast neutrons as they do so. Those neutrons and their accompanying radiation can heat molten salts around the walls of the chamber and that heat can be used to power industrial processes – or to boil water and generate electricity through a steam turbine. That’s the dream of a firm called Xcimer, one of the more ingenious fusion energy startups, based in Colorado.