Egypt

Trying to read the tea leaves on Islamist politicians is notoriously tricky. What else could explain why so many Middle East observers have misinterpreted Mohammed Mursi’s decision to visit Iran later this month as confirmation that Cairo's Islamists are seeking closer union with Tehran? These fears are misguided. Egypt has not had any official diplomatic relations with Iran for more than thirty years and Mursi’s visit will not change that status quo. He won’t be conducting a state visit but will instead be attending a meeting of the Non-Aligned Movement, a group formed to promote the interests of developing nations during the Cold War. Egypt currently holds its rotating presidency. The trip has been on the cards for months.

The confrontation between military brass and Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt came much sooner than expected. Mohammed Mursi has effectively sacked the head of the armed forces, Field Marshal Mohamad Hussein Tantawi, and Chief of Staff Sami Annan, in the hope of asserting his authority. Relations between the army and president have been strained for months because the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces enacted a number of measures to preserve their influence over Egyptian politics. Tantawi ensured, for example, that the SCAF had control over the drafting of Egypt’s new constitution and also appointed himself as Minister of Defence. This was widely seen as a pre-emptive move to guard against an Islamist takeover. Mursi has outmanoeuvred the army on all this.

Hillary Clinton is holding talks in Israel today after a turbulent weekend in Egypt, ending a diplomatically fraught trip with little obvious benefit. Officially, Clinton was there to open the American consulate in Alexandria after it closed in 1993 due to budget cutbacks, but the subtext was to manage the conflicting aspects of America’s strategic interests in the country. Clinton met with Mohammed Mursi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood who is now Egypt’s new President, assuring him of the ‘full authority’ of his office. This was a subtle endorsement at a time when Mursi finds himself locked in tug-of-war with the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces for power. The latter has so far prevented him from forming a civilian government or convening parliament.

Don’t expect Cairo to become Kabul now that the Muslim Brotherhood’s presidential candidate, Mohammed Mursi, has been sworn into power earlier today. There are real fears, of course, about the future of Egypt under an Islamist president and it’s foolish to whitewash Mursi as either moderate or benign. The Muslim Brotherhood is a deeply reactionary and dangerous group, but Mursi will find it extremely difficult to implement the more radical aspects of his agenda.   Officially, the Brotherhood has said it will respect all existing treaties – a subtle attempt to placate fears about Egypt’s future relations with Israel.

Chaos and confusion are mounting in Egypt tonight, where the country’s constitutional court has ruled that laws governing parliamentary elections are invalid. It follows that the Egyptian parliament must be dissolved, by the interim government led by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. And the constitution must be rewritten before the presidential run-off on Saturday.  The court also ruled that Ahmed Shafik, a former prime minister under Hosni Mubarak, could stand in that run-off, overturning a law that barred members of the previous regime from election. Shafik welcomed the decision, which leaves him free to challenge Mohamed Morsi, the Muslim Brotherhood’s representative. The message from the Brotherhood is one of defiance.

The future of Egypt has been hanging in the balance since Hosni Mubarak was toppled. Now there is real cause for concern, as scores of protesters clash with state security forces. The problem, above all, is military overreach. Stuck in a 1960s view of itself, and keen to preserve their money, status and power, the military has been thwarting the process of change. Since Mubarak's fall they have continued behaving how they always have and worse — arresting protesters, muttering about US-led conspiracies, demanding extra-constitutional rights and clamping down on dissent. Worst of all, the West has been all to willing to take them at their word.

It's difficult for the outside world to understand the huge significance that Gilad Shalit's release, this morning, has for Israel. A soldier captured by Hamas five years ago, he has become a huge cause célèbre — to the extent that black cabs in London were even commissioned with his picture on it. Books that he wrote aged 11 were printed and bought in their thousands by Israelis. He was wanted back so badly that Israel has agreed to release 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, among them hardcore terrorists. Events stemming from the Arab Spring have made both sides eager to do a deal, which experts say might contribute — even if in a tiny way — towards that ever-elusive peace settlement.