Economy

Hidden behind today’s gushing Olympic headlines lies more disappointing economic news. Nationwide’s latest House Price Index release today shows that house prices are continuing to fall, with a 0.7 per cent decline in July. As the graph below shows, the fall in prices is a continuation of a trend that began when the country re-entered recession earlier this year: The latest figures put prices down 13 per cent on their 2007 peak and 2.6 per cent lower than this time last year. Last year the average house price was £168,731: now it is £164,389. But if you look at these trends in an international context, Britain's prices appear relatively resilient.

Yesterday’s economic news reminds us of the need for the Government to continue to focus relentlessly on getting our economy moving – dealing with the debt crisis, boosting bank lending to the real economy, and ensuring sustainable long-term prosperity through radical economic reform. One of the key planks of the Government’s reforms is to make Britain’s tax system more competitive, ensuring that Britain is open for business, that we are a dynamic and an attractive place to invest in and to work in. Cutting corporation tax to the lowest rate in the G7 is one element of this plan. Cutting the top rate of income tax to level the playing field with our main competitors like New York is another. These market dynamics are lost on Labour.

‘Unfortunately, it’s not enough.’ That is, broadly, the conclusion of John Longworth, the director of the British Chamber of Commerce, who has penned a visceral critique of the government’s economic policy in the Observer. Nothing, it seems, is sufficient: half-hearted infrastructure investment, non-existent aviation policy, lethargic borrowing to business, and regulatory reform that leaves businesses ‘mired in a thicket of red tape’. Longworth laments economic policy being determined by ‘political short-termism, electoral calculation and presentation’.

Announcements from the International Monetary Fund are worded in such a way that everyone reading them comes away with something slightly different. So shortly after today's report on the UK economy was released, Ed Balls put out a statement saying the report was a 'very serious warning to the Chancellor that urgent action to boost jobs and growth is needed'. He concluded his press release by asking 'how much worse do things have to get before the Chancellor finally changes course?'. Now, today's report from the IMF is not cheery reading for George Osborne. It passes this bleak judgement on the economy: 'Recovery has stalled. Post-crisis repair and rebalancing of the UK economy is likely to be more prolonged than initially envisaged. Confidence is weak and uncertainty is high.

So the IMF has revised its forecasts for the UK's GDP growth downwards — to 0.2 in 2012 and 1.4 in 2013 from the 0.8 per cent and 2.0 respectively it predicted in April. It's bad news, certainly — not least because we've been downgraded more than most other countries, and we're now forecast to grow more slowly than Germany and (this year) France. But it's worth bearing in mind that the IMF — for all its ability to drive headlines — is just one of many organisations playing the forecasting game, and these downgrades actually just bring them into line with the average.

There is a simple rule in Tory politics: do not cross Lord Ashcroft. There is little love between the Conservative leadership and Ashcroft, the man who sustained the Tories through the wilderness years but was left high and dry in 2010 during the furore over his tax affairs. Admiration curdled into contempt, epitomised by Ashcroft’s weighty critique of the Tories’ disastrous 2010 election campaign. Tax is back in the news and so, by chance, is his lordship. Ashcroft has written a short but devastating piece on the Tories’ present strategy. He writes: 'It is depressing to hear that plans are afoot to paint Miliband as the Michael Dukakis of British politics: part of a metropolitan elite with no understanding of mainstream concerns.

Things in Greece could have been worse after yesterday’s election, but that fact can’t be hailed as a ‘turning point’. Assuming that Greek political leaders form a coalition and push ahead with EU-mandated reforms, which is a very likely outcome given that Greece may only have enough cash in its coffers to soldier on for another month, any such government will inevitably include parties that completely disagree on how to resolve the crisis. The only glue would be the fear of economic catastrophe. This uneasy government would be ill-suited to withstand pressure from Syriza and the rest, who will spare no effort in blaming it for the inevitable economic pain.