David cameron

The Tories are ahead in a national opinion poll for the first time since 2012. The first Lord Ashcroft/Conservative Home poll has the Tories ahead by two points, on 34 to Labour's 32. The Lib Dems are on 9 and Ukip 15. One swallow doesn't a summer make. But this poll will have a psychological impact at Westminster. It will make it that much easier for the Tory leadership to persuade its MPs to stay calm in the face of a bad European Election result and will add to worries on the Labour side that the party is in trouble. Worryingly for Labour, Miliband's rating among swing voters is particularly low. There will be those who'll dismiss this as a 'Tory poll'. But Ashcroft's polling has not been kind to the Tories in the past.

Why is David Cameron so confident that he'll get what he wants from his renegotiation of Britain's relationship with Europe? Today on the Andrew Marr Show he managed to advocate Britain voting 'yes' in the 2017 referendum before he's even started changing the terms of the membership voters would be backing. His reasoning for this was firstly that 'I'm someone who has a very positive, optimistic plan for this country' (a convenient contrast with Ukip), and secondly because he has a good track record of getting what he wants in Europe.

Is intellectual self-confidence a good thing? Ed Miliband was teased in parliament by David Cameron for claiming to possess it, and teased again by Lord Finkelstein in his notebook for The Times. 'I know he thinks he is extremely clever,' Cameron sneered at PMQs. Lord Finkelstein refers to a book that claims that intellectual self-confidence is a curse because it leads to wrong decisions.  I disagree. We argue in the leader of this week’s Spectator that Miliband is very confident about bad ideas, and Cameron lacks confidence in good ones. More's the pity. Cameron was being unfair: intellectual self-confidence does not mean thinking you're 'extremely clever'. It's about believing you have the right ideas, and being prepared to articulate and act on them.

David Cameron’s trip to fast food chain Nando's last night has caused a stir, with countless ‘selfies’ of the peri-peri PM appearing online before anyone could even whisper ‘cynical PR stunt’. He's not the only politician who's a fan of the Portuguese chicken chain. It's practically a second office for the Tory party chairman, who conducts meetings and lunches in its Victoria branch. Grant Shapps tells Mr S that he ‘will be jealous if the PM gets a Black Card’. The loyalty card is given to famous customers allowing them to eat for free. Though it seems Shapps’ loyalty is split: Culture Minister Ed Vaizey loves McDonalds so much he even makes his own: Of course, it’s not just Tories who are ‘Lovin' it’.

One of the striking things about the next election is how what is going on at the macro level looks so different from what is happening at a micro level. On the macro front, things seem to be moving the Tories' way. The economy is growing at a good clip and that is set to continue until polling day and David Cameron has a considerable advantage on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister. But to return to the micro, it is easier to see seats where Labour might gain from the Tories rather than the other way round. Ask even the most optimistic Tories what constituencies they might win to give them a double-digit majority, and they come up short. The crucial question is whether these marginals are a lagging indicator or not.

In a better, more sensible, world David Cameron would make a virtue of the opportunity UKIP has given him. He would appreciate that defending his party's record is actually an opportunity for a counter-attack. UKIP complain - loudly - that 4,000 people arrive in the United Kingdom from the EU each and every week. This, they suggest, is awful and Something Must Be Done to limit the number of people coming to the United Kingdom. The Conservative party appears, in its dark heart, to share this concern. It suspects the Kippers might have at least half a point. There's something nauseous about all this immigration, isn't there? No wonder the party is hemmed-in, unable to find a response to UKIP that is both sensible and persuasive. Better, then, to attack.

How the Tory party will react if, as excepted, Ukip pushes the party into third place in the European elections is one of the most discussed topics in UK politics. But overlooked in all this is how Labour will react if Farage’s party beats them on May 22nd. If Ukip come top in the European Elections, as the polls indicate they have a very good chance of doing, Labour will be thrown into a panic. No opposition has ever triumphed at a general election having not won the previous European Elections. A failure in the European Elections would be a big blow to the idea that Ed Miliband is going to be the next Prime Minister. Already, influential members of the shadow Cabinet are grumbling about how the leadership hasn’t taken these elections seriously enough.

As the economy bounces back it keeps smacking Ed Miliband in the face. At PMQs today he tried to pose as the people’s champion fighting fat-cat capitalism. He started with Royal Mail, which is now worth a billion more than when it was floated. In hindsight, any privatisation can look like a Westminster mega-blunder or a Square Mile stitch-up. Miliband took the latter view. Referring to the clique of 16 ‘golden ticket’ investors, he asked why these lucky speculators had been allowed to flip their shares for an instant profit while the hard-working posties had been ordered to retain theirs for three years. Cameron spotted the trick. Posties got free shares. The City paid hard cash. The PM praised the flotation for turning a commercial dead-horse into a ripping triumph.

A smart move by Ed Miliband today to put pressure on David Cameron over the televised leaders' debates next year. Every time the Prime Minister is asked about these debates, he makes supportive noises while muttering about the 'right formula', but doesn't commit to anything. He has also said that he felt the debates 'dominated' the coverage of the 2010 election, which is as close as he'll come to saying that Nick Clegg's shiny new qualities at the time rather detracted from Cameron's own appeal which his strategists had been setting so much store by. But as the Prime Minister hasn't agreed to anything, Labour's trying to get ahead of the game and appear to drag Cameron into a studio.

How does a Prime Minister get a recalcitrant minister to agree to something? Well, if it's not going to make any difference to whether some legislation passes and the minister isn't directly responsible for the policy, then he can always let them avoid a vote, as he seems to be doing on HS2 today. But what if the minister is the one who needs to sign off on a policy change? I hear that David Cameron found himself in this situation late last year when trying to make some changes to the government's counter-extremism strategy. Baroness Warsi (not his favourite minister) was refusing to accept the changes, which the Prime Minister ambushed her over.