David cameron

Ed Miliband’s popularity is improving – and the Tories should worry

From our UK edition

Ed Miliband has long been considered the Conservatives' main electoral asset. Certainly, Simon Danczuk touched a nerve when he described his party leader as a liability only a fortnight ago. But as the election nears, is the Labour leader beginning to turn his personal fortunes around? Polling from YouGov shows a fascinating trend. Voter approval of Miliband’s performance as Labour leader has improved from a dire state in late-November last year, at net -56%, to the most recent level of -26% last week. With the election campaign underway, a significant chunk of the electorate appear to have given the Labour leader a second look. Indeed, his net approval rating improved by 10 points after the "hell, yes!

How Labour can use Europe to stop the Tories

From our UK edition

One of the first tasks of a party in our time of fragmented politics is to stop their opponents making alliances. As things stand, the Tories can form a coalition with Ukip (and it tells you all you need to know about David Cameron that he would even consider such a possibility) the Democratic Unionists and the Liberal Democrats. As the Lib Dems are likely to form the largest block, they are the most important target for Labour. You only have to listen to Nick Clegg, say, or Danny Alexander, to suspect that they would rather keep the coalition with Cameron. Why shouldn’t they? They’ve worked together for five years. Like a partner in a stale marriage, they will stick with what they know, however often they dream about divorce. Yet the Liberals are also a pro-European party.

The Scottish TV debates offer Labour one final chance to hold back the SNP advance

From our UK edition

Tonight’s Scottish leaders’ debate in Edinburgh is as important to the general election campaign as last week’s debate featuring Cameron, Miliband et al in Manchester. Both this debate and the second Scottish one tomorrow offer Labour a final opportunity to reverse the SNP advance. The polls indicate that the SNP are on course to take 28 Scottish seats off Labour in May. This would make it the largest Scottish party at Westminster. It would also make it impossible for Ed Miliband to win a majority. At the moment, nothing seems capable of halting the Nationalists’ momentum. The dramatic fall in the oil price, which has upset many of the calculations in the independence white paper, hasn’t dented their support.

Is ‘come home’ the best thing David Cameron can say to Ukip voters? 

From our UK edition

One of the things the Tories need to do in order to hold on to power is to convince those considering voting Ukip in the General Election that it is safer to back the Tories instead. To that end, David Cameron yesterday told a campaign event that he hoped such voters would return to the Tories so that Labour wouldn't have a chance of putting the recovery at risk. He said: 'Come with us, come back home to us rather than risk all of this good work being undone by Labour.' Labour said this was further evidence that the Tories and Ukip were preparing to work together. But Ukip's response gets it right, with Nigel Farage saying: 'Neither former Labour nor Conservative voters who have switched to UKIP are going back.

Tories convinced ‘moment of maximum danger’ has passed

From our UK edition

On Thursday night, David Cameron didn’t eviscerate the competition. But nor did he suffer any damage and that, to Tory high command, meant that it was job done. The Tory leadership didn’t want any debates at all, they’d rather not have taken the risk. So, to get through this one debate with the dynamics of the campaign unchanged was, to their mind, a result. As Cameron enjoyed a late night drink with Samantha Cameron, George Osborne and his key aides on Thursday, he reflected on how much better he felt than he did after the first debate five years ago when he knew that he had not only underperformed but that he had two more to get through. This time round he’d done fine and was done with debates.

Leaked memo shows Nicola Sturgeon admitting that the SNP prefers Cameron to Miliband

From our UK edition

So who does Nicola Sturgeon really want as Prime Minister? Her official line is that she’d put in anyone but the wicked Tories – indeed, Alex Salmond told me last week that “the SNP approach to a Cameron minority government will be to bring it down”. But that’s not what Strugeon has been saying in private. The Daily Telegraph has just released a leaked diplomatic memo revealing that Ms Sturgeon has confessed to the French ambassador that she would prefer that David Cameron "remains"  Prime Minister - and that she thinks Ed Miliband is too incompetent. The leaked memo - a UK government memo - goes as follows:- "Just had a telephone conversation with Pierre-Alain Coffinier, the French CG [consul-general].

Max Hastings’s diary: The joys of middle age, and Prince Charles’s strange letters

From our UK edition

I am living in rustic seclusion while writing a book. Our only cultural outing of the week was to Newbury cinema to see, transmitted from the National Theatre, Arthur Miller’s A View From the Bridge, object of rave reviews. We respected the piece but did not enjoy it. Granted, appreciation of all major works of art requires an effort by the viewer, listener, reader. But a pleasure of getting older is to be unafraid of waving the white flag. We resist modern-dress Shakespeare or worse, opera. We will cross continents to avoid the music of Harrison Birtwistle or the art of Damien Hirst. We are ardent Trollopeians, incorrigibly middlebrow.

Ed Miliband could have won the election last night. Now, it’s Cameron’s to lose.

From our UK edition

The Sun's front page today has a picture of Ed Miliband saying: “Oops, I just lost my election”. That’s an exaggeration: I’d say the election is still 50/50, pretty much where it was last week. And realistically, that’s the best David Cameron could have hoped for. Miliband emerged best from the Paxman interviews, and had he triumphed last night he would have gathered momentum that could well have carried him over the line on 7 May. It was easier for Miliband to 'win - all he had to do to exceed expectations was turn up without the help of a life support machine. Last time, there was a sizeable gap between the caricature of Ed Miliband and the man at his best. But in his debate, the gap wasn't so big.

Cameron needs to be the reasonable statesman on tonight’s debate

From our UK edition

Which David Cameron will take the stage for tonight’s seven-way showdown? Will it be the competent, likeable and reasonable statesman who has steered the economy onto safer ground? Or the tetchy one who calls Ed Miliband a ‘waste of space’ at Prime Minister’s Questions? On Monday, speaking at a lectern outside the door of Number 10, the Prime Minister decided to launch a personal attack on his opposite number rather than make a statesman-like pitch to the electorate. To have mentioned Ed Miliband by name once would have been historic – doing so three times smacked of desperation.

Five things to watch for during tonight’s debate

From our UK edition

1) Can Natalie Bennett do enough to spark another Green surge? After Natalie Bennett’s infamous ‘brain fade’ the Green surge faded away. The media stopped giving the Greens the attention they had been and without the oxygen of publicity, support for the party fell away; this morning’s YouGov poll has the Greens on 4%, their lowest score since October. But tonight offers Bennett a chance to get her party back into the election frame. If she can deliver a few good answers and the odd zinger, that would be enough to get the media—and, then, the voters—to take a second look at her and the Greens. 2) Will Leanne Wood attack Miliband over the state of the NHS in Labour-run Wales?

Podcast: In defence of Christianity, and the Conservatives’ lack of passion

From our UK edition

Being a Christian in Britain today is to invite pity or condescension, writes Michael Gove in this week’s cover piece. Why is that, and what is the future of Christianity in Britain? Michael Gove joined Isabel Hardman and Ken Costa, the Chairman of Alpha International, on this week’s View from 22 podcast, to discuss the issue. Has there always been this much suspicion of Christians, or is this a more recent phenomenon? James Forsyth and Fraser Nelson also joined Isabel Hardman to talk about this week’s leading article. In it, The Spectator argues that the Tory campaign so far has lacked passion. The Conservatives ought by all accounts to be winning in the polls; but Cameron is seriously struggling. So what has gone wrong?

Podcast special: the seven-way TV leaders debate

From our UK edition

Tonight's televised debate between seven of the party leaders promises to be one of the most interesting events of the campaign. In this View from 22 podcast special, Fraser Nelson, Isabel Hardman, James Forsyth and I discuss who is expected to do well, the issues that will be raised, which leaders will gang up on David Cameron and whether Ed Miliband can meet the high expectations, As with the Q&A programme last week, we'll be running a live blog on Coffee House from 7:45pm this evening, so you can follow our instant reaction to the debate.

Zero-hours contracts have nothing to do with flexibility and everything to do with dodging tax

From our UK edition

Could you live on a zero-hours contract? David Cameron was forced to admit, during his grilling by Jeremy Paxman, that he couldn’t. But 1.4 million Britons do. Some out of choice, some through necessity. But the latest attempts by the main parties to tackle the injustices of zero-hours contracts fail to get to the heart of the problem – which has nothing to do with a need for 'flexibility' and everything to do with dodging tax. Many of us might be horrified at the thought of not knowing when our next pay cheque will be coming and how much it will be, but large numbers of people on zero-hours contracts are perfectly happy without that job security.

Nigel Farage causes problems for Alison Jackson ahead of leaders’ debate

From our UK edition

Tonight's leaders' debate will see the seven party leaders battle to be heard on ITV. The set up has given organisers a headache as they work out how to arrange it without the debate descending into chaos. For Alison Jackson who is going to shoot a lookalike version in its aftermath, she has another issue to contend with. The English artist, who is known for her lookalike photographs of celebrities, is in the process of assembling a team of political doppelgangers. While David Cameron and Nick Clegg have been located, there are still a few more to be found, including Nicola Sturgeon. However, the man causing her the biggest problem is Nigel Farage. 'I am still looking for a Farage.

In defence of Christianity

From our UK edition

Jeremy Paxman was on great form last week, reminding us that when it comes to being rude to prime ministers he has no peers. Jeremy’s rudeness is, of course, magnificently bipartisan. However elegant the sneer he displayed when asking David Cameron about Stephen Green, it was as nothing compared to the pointed disdain with which he once asked Tony Blair about his faith. Was it true, Jeremy inquired, that he had prayed together with his fellow Christian George W. Bush? The question was asked in a tone of Old Malvernian hauteur which implied that spending time in religious contemplation was clearly deviant behaviour of the most disgusting kind.

Why are so many men on diets? I blame feminists

From our UK edition

According to Jenni Russell, my colleague at the Times, David Cameron has lost 13lb since Christmas, mainly by giving up on peanuts and biscuits. Now that’s a lot of peanuts and biscuits. It’s a bit yo-yo, Cameron’s weight, isn’t it? He gets bigger, he gets smaller again, like a giant, very pink, human-shaped balloon that some giant unseen hand is alternately squeezing and relaxing around the legs. He wears it well, though. When Nigel Lawson lost all that weight he looked like a man with a puncture. George Osborne only shrinks these days, and will soon be as slim as his own lapels. So I suppose Cameron might be spurred on by the sight of him every morning, picking up muffins in cabinet and putting them down again with a sigh.

David Cameron’s curiously sanitised Christianity

From our UK edition

David Cameron has written a rather interesting piece for Premier Christianity magazine on his faith and the meaning of Easter. I use the word ‘interesting’ advisedly and in the sense that an aged relative might deploy it when regarding some new fangled Christmas present that has a touch screen. The final two paragraphs are particularly interesting: ‘So I end my argument with this: I hope everyone can share in the belief of trying to lift people up rather than count people out. Those values and principles are not the exclusive preserve of one faith or religion. They are something I hope everyone in our country believes. ‘That after all is the heart of the Christian message. It’s the principle around which the Easter celebration is built.

New poll shows SNP will annihilate Labour — but the nation is still divided over independence

From our UK edition

Scottish Labour is having no luck in denting the SNP’s support. ComRes/ITV News have released a new poll this evening, which shows a 19 per cent swing to the SNP across the 40 Labour held seats in Scotland. Based on this, the SNP would take 28 of these seats in the upcoming general election. North of the border, ComRes puts the SNP on 43 per cent, Labour on 37, the Tories on 13 and Ukip, the Lib Dems and Greens on two per cent each. The ComRes findings fall in line with the other polls taken in Scotland from Lord Ashcroft and ICM — the latter recently suggested that the SNP would take 29 seats from Labour with a 20 per cent swing.