David cameron

David Cameron appears to be looking for a suite of examples for his party that he's still fighting their corner. He's about to deliver his speech on offenders, and his spokesman has just suggested he's up for a real scrap on the European Union budget, too. The FT's splash this morning is that Angela Merkel is threatening to cancel next month's European budget summit if Britain refuses to approve any other deal than a total freeze on spending. The paper reports that Merkel believes there is no point in holding the summit if Cameron is going to veto any deal on the table. The problem for the German Chancellor is that if Cameron vetoes a deal, it will be good for him politically, but bad for Merkel as Germany will lose its rebate and therefore will have to contribute more.

It's clear the government has had a bad week when the Prime Minister pops up on a Monday with a crowd-pleasing policy announcement. Recent re-launches have been shared by senior Lib Dems and Tories following the collapse of Lords reform, for example, to demonstrate that the Coalition is still working well. But today, the Lib Dems are nowhere to be seen: the Prime Minister's big crime announcement is a response to a terrible week for the Conservative party, rather than the coalition as a whole. Cameron is using law and order as a traditional Conservative area, arguing that 'retribution is not a dirty word' and that alongside a 'tough' approach to crime, all but the most high-risk prisoners will be offered rehabilitation by the end of 2015.

David Cameron is determined to renegotiate the terms of Britain’s EU membership. But to get a good deal and to show his own eurosceptics  - let alone UKIP voters  - that he’s serious about this, he is going to have to be prepared to say that he would be prepared to leave if the rest of the European Union doesn’t play ball. (This poker game is why the other northern European countries that Cameron is relying on to help him secure a better deal have been quick to suggest that they wouldn’t mind Britain leaving that much.) Cameron, though, is highly reluctant to do this. Not only does he think EU membership does provide genuine benefits to Britain but he also worries about how business would react to any threat of withdrawal.

David Cameron was very grumpy with Labour's Chris Bryant at Prime Minister's Questions on Wednesday, sniping that as Bryant hadn't apologised to him for speaking in the Commons about embargoed information, he wouldn't answer his question. Bryant and his colleague Harriet Harman have made a bit of a stink about this, and today the Prime Minister wrote back to Labour's deputy leader saying the following: Dear Harriet, Thank you for your letter of 17 October about my evidence to the Leveson Inquiry. As you will be aware, on 25 April, Chris Bryant made a point of order in the House in which he suggested that I had misled the House.

David Cameron's plan for this autumn was to largely avoid the topic of Europe at his party's conference, then to focus on the issue later in the year. It's only a few days since the Tories gathered in Birmingham, and the Prime Minister is already facing a big week on Europe. Home Secretary Theresa May will kick things off by announcing today that she wants Britain to opt out of more than 130 European Union measures on law and order, including the European Arrest Warrant. The opt-out itself, which the Home Secretary is expected to say Britain is 'minded' to do, is not the tricky bit: it's which measures to then opt back into.

Just as Ed Miliband seemed to get a poll bounce from his conference speech last week, so David Cameron seems to have got one from his on Wednesday. On YouGov's question of who would make the best Prime Minister, Cameron has extended his lead to 14 points. That more than reverses the bump Miliband got on that question from his conference (he had closed the gap from 12 points before the conferences to just four last week). In fact, it's the best result for Cameron on that crucial question since the Budget in March. On voting intention, the Tories' conference does seem to have helped them close the gap to Labour a little. YouGov's latest poll has Labour's lead at seven points (42-35), down from 14 points (45-31) last week.

The papers are unanimous: Andrew Mitchell is a dead man walking, and like most pantomime ghouls he’s become a laughing stock. Fraser’s Telegraph column tells of MPs and cabinet colleagues ridiculing the chief whip. The joke deepens because Mitchell, perhaps due to his insistence that he did not use the word ‘pleb’, apparently does not recognise the gravity of those offences to which he has confessed. He is the still the merry cyclist, by all accounts. As Fraser points out, the joke becomes more serious at this stage because it shrouds the Tories’ attempt to tackle inequality with welfare and education reform.