Conservative party

On Thursday night, David Cameron didn’t eviscerate the competition. But nor did he suffer any damage and that, to Tory high command, meant that it was job done. The Tory leadership didn’t want any debates at all, they’d rather not have taken the risk. So, to get through this one debate with the dynamics of the campaign unchanged was, to their mind, a result. As Cameron enjoyed a late night drink with Samantha Cameron, George Osborne and his key aides on Thursday, he reflected on how much better he felt than he did after the first debate five years ago when he knew that he had not only underperformed but that he had two more to get through. This time round he’d done fine and was done with debates.

With just five weeks to go till polling day, one happy voter in Bedford has had enough. Mr S suspects that it's for the best if Patrick Hall, the Labour candidate for Bedford and Kempston, doesn't pay a personal visit to this address.

When launching the Conservatives’ campaign this week, David Cameron told party activists that the general election was ‘on a knife edge’. He is right. His chances are little better than 50/50, which is terrifying given the calibre of his opponent. The Prime Minister is entering this election with a list of achievements matched by almost no other leader in Europe. Yet he’s struggling to beat one of the least popular opposition leaders in modern times. What has gone wrong? It’s not the economy. Employment stands at a record high, and most voters will never have lived through such low inflation as we have today. The price of food is actually falling, as is the price of petrol; it costs £18 less to fill up an average car than it did 18 months ago.

Perhaps, the biggest question of this campaign is whether the Tories will gain support in the next five and a bit weeks. If they don't, Cameron will almost certainly lose and Ed Miliband will become Prime Minister. In his column today, Danny Finkelstein looks at polling data produced by Andrew Cooper of Populus to see what the chances are of a late surge. Cooper looked at those who prefer Cameron to Miliband as Prime Minister and also think that the Tories would manage the economy better than Labour but are currently not saying they’ll vote Tory. In Cooper’s poll of 10,000 voters, conducted in five waves, this group made up 18% of those likely to vote.

So farewell then Lord Ashcroft: well, not quite. The former Tory Party treasurer has announced today that he has resigned his life peerage, yet will be able to keep his title for life, under changes to the rules passed in 2013. Having fallen out with Cameron in 2010, the billionaire one-time Tory backer and in-house pollster is said to have been severely put out that there was no job forthcoming after having kept the party afloat for the wilderness years. Since then, he has rebranded himself as an independent pollster, though there is still some bad blood with No 10.

Ed Miliband's so-called ‘Paxo bounce’ in the opinion polls is ebbing away. The polls out this evening have the Conservatives either level pegging with Labour or slightly ahead. Tonight’s latest from YouGov/The Sun has both parties neck and neck, with the Conservatives and Labour on 35 per cent — a three point rise for the Tories on Sunday — while Ukip is on 12 per cent, the Lib Dems on eight and the Greens on five. In his weekly national poll, Lord Ashcroft has the Tories two points ahead on 36 per cent, up three points from last week. The Tory pollster has Labour on 34 per cent, Ukip on ten, the Lib Dems on six and the Greens on five.

The stakes have been raised, at least psychologically, for Thursday night’s debate. Today’s YouGov poll has Labour four points ahead, in contrast to a two point Tory lead in their last survey. This is being seen in Westminster as a Paxman bounce for Miliband. If this Labour leads is still in place at the end of the Easter weekend, Tory nerves will begin to fray. Thursday’s debate will be a crowded affair with seven leaders on stage. Despite it being a two hour debate, there’ll only be time for four questions. As I say in the Mail On Sunday, the debate will almost certainly turn into Cameron versus the rest as they all try and go after the sitting Prime Minister.

The Tories want to frame this election as a straight choice between David Cameron and Ed Miliband. So, today Cameron delivered some of his most direct attacks on Miliband yet. Anticipating criticism, he said, ‘Some might say “don’t make this personal” but when it comes to who’s Prime Minister, the personal is national.’ Cameron warned that Labour could reverse everything that has been achieved in this parliament, the ‘painstaking work of the last 5 years – they could undo in just 5 months.’ He attacked Labour as ‘the welfare party’ and derided Miliband as a ‘Hampstead Socialist’.