Conservative party

Saturday

Sebastian Payne

There was one pollster who predicted a Conservative victory: Jim Messina

The shock election result has resulted in a lot of finger pointing. Why did the pollsters not see a Tory victory on the horizon? Was Labour deluded in thinking they had any chance of making it into government? Judging from conversations I’ve had with Conservatives, those inside the party weren’t particularly certain about getting the most seats either, never mind a majority. The leadership campaigns were even prepped for a contest soon after May 7. But there was one man who did see a Tory victory coming: Jim Messina. The Obama guru and former White House deputy chief of staff was hired by the Tories for his data nuance and his

Friday

James Forsyth

The reshuffle has begun – but the real excitement will happen on Monday

David Cameron has reappointed several of the most senior members of the government. George Osborne stays as Chancellor, Theresa May remains Home Secretary, Philip Hammond Foreign Secretary and Michael Fallon Defence Secretary. Indeed, the only change is Osborne taking over William Hague’s old First Secretary of State title. This is formal recognition that Osborne will, in effect, be the deputy Prime Minister of this Tory majority government. We are told to expect the rest of the reshuffle on Monday. There’ll be particular interest in who Cameron chooses to be his chief whip, a role that takes on particular importance with this small majority. There’s also the question of what Cameron

The Spectator

Cabinet reshuffle: George Osborne, Theresa May, Michael Fallon and Philip Hammond remain in their posts

David Cameron has ‘reshuffled’ his Cabinet. George Osborne has been re-appointed as Chancellor, and will also be First Secretary of State, as were William Hague and Peter Mandelson. The title implies that he is the most senior minister.  https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/596701353289846786 Theresa May will remain as Home Secretary. https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/596704917374525440 Philip Hammond will also remain in his role as Foreign Secretary, and Michael Fallon will keep his job as Defence Secretary. https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/596707531520610304 https://twitter.com/David_Cameron/status/596709700248465408

Sebastian Payne

The final 2015 general election results

All of the results of the 2015 general election are in and we have a result: the Conservatives have a major of 12 seats. Here is a breakdown of the results for each of the parties: [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/PifSa/index.html”] And a few other figures you might find interesting: Turnout was 66.1 per cent, up from 65.1 per cent in 2010 19.4 per cent of MPs in the new parliament will be female, up from 15.8 per cent in 2010 Counting will begin tomorrow for 9,000 council elections in England

Sebastian Payne

Listen: The Spectator's verdict on the 2015 general election

In our final podcast special of the 2015 general election, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I discuss the astonishing results and what we can expect from David Cameron’s new Conservative government. Are we finally going to see the unrestrained Cameron? Who is already limbering up to replace Ed Miliband as Labour leader? And what will the SNP and Liberal Democrats do next? You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer or iPhone every week, or you can use the player below:

Sebastian Payne

Exclusive: David Cameron tells CCHQ staffers 'this is the sweetest victory of them all'

After a very good night of results, David Cameron addressed party staffers at Conservative HQ in Westminster this morning. A clip of the Prime Minister’s victory speech has made its way to Coffee House. You can watch what Cameron said below: Exclusive: David Cameron’s victory speech to CCHQ staffers this morning #ge2015 #conservative https://t.co/nKtdhBVxr7 — Sebastian Payne (@SebastianEPayne) May 8, 2015 Here is the text of part of what Cameron told the gathered party staffers, all of whom appear to be a very jubilant mood: ‘..to be with you guys and say thank you, you are an amazing team. I’m not an old man but I remember casting a vote in ’87

The Spectator

As it happened: 2015 general election results

Welcome to The Spectator’s live coverage of the 2015 general election results. We provided results and analysis overnight and throughout the day. You can read all the coverage below. Key points: David Cameron remains PM —He has won a majority and has visited Buckingham Palace for an audience with the Queen. The Conservatives have won 331 seats. In an exclusive revealed by The Spectator, Cameron told Conservative HQ staffers this morning that ‘this is the sweetest victory of them all’. Nick Clegg, Ed Miliband and Nigel Farage have resigned as leaders of their parties. SNP has swept Scotland — The SNP now have 56 MPs in Scotland, while the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats each have one.

Thursday

The Spectator

Bond villains

After working for Bill Clinton, the political strategist James Carville said he had changed his mind about where power really lies. ‘I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the President or the Pope,’ he said. ‘But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.’ By this he meant that every political leader, no matter how powerful or radical, lived in fear of going too far into debt, lest the market hiked up interest rates, tipping the government into collapse. Alas, that’s no longer the case. This magazine ridiculed Gordon Brown for claiming to have ‘put an

Isabel Hardman

Has Ed Miliband got something clever up his sleeve?

How will Ed Miliband manage tomorrow if Labour does end up the second largest party but with a viable ‘anti-Tory alliance’ in the House of Commons? The Tories are trying to craft a narrative that such a government would be illegitimate, and David Cameron will give a statement early on Friday. But there is a theory developing among some Tories who rate Miliband’s strategic skills that he could be about to produce his own clever game-changer too. He could be about to offer a significant devolution of powers to the regions, a huge transfer of power to Scotland and Wales, the elected Senate of the Nations and Regions that was

Isabel Hardman

Revealed: the party with the most negative election campaign

Which party is the most negative in this election campaign? All of them have spent a great deal of time being negative about their opponents’ apparent negativity, claiming that only their own party is running a positive campaign about the future for this country, and so on. But it’s easy to make grand claims, and even easier not to measure up to them at all. To give us an answer, academics at British Election Leaflet Project at the University of Nottingham have analysed leaflets from the parties in this campaign. They looked at 1,300 pieces of election literature from nearly 300 constituencies. All the leaflets were uploaded on electionleaflets.org. Their

Sebastian Payne

Election night: the ten ‘Portillo moments’ to watch out for

Election night is going to be a long affair but some excitement will ensue if any prominent politicians lose their seats — unexpectedly or otherwise. There is likely to be at least one ‘Portillo moment‘ — akin to the the 1997 election night when then-Tory MP Michael Portillo lost his seat and signalled that the Tories were on course to be out of power for 13 years. In chronological order, here are the big name politicians to watch out for tomorrow morning: 1. Douglas Alexander in Paisley and Renfrewshire South Expected declaration time: 3:00am Region: Scotland Majority: 16,614 MP in 2010: Douglas Alexander – Labour 2010 result: Lab 60%, SNP 18%, Con 10%, Lib Dem 10%

Wednesday

Isabel Hardman

Nervous Tory candidates say race too tight to call

Tonight’s a nervous night if you’re an candidate for re-election in a marginal seat (or in Scotland). You might have an impressive get-out-the-vote operation, or you might have spent the past five years wheeling and dealing in Westminster on behalf of your constituents so that you have a strong personal brand, but it might be that voters just aren’t that into your party. Or, in spite of your best efforts, you. A good number of the Tory candidates in marginals who I spoke to today feel as though the race is too tight for them to have any idea whether they will be back in Westminster next week. The same

Steerpike

David Cameron visits a zoo with no animals

The feral travelling Tory press pack were suited and booted this morning in the pouring Cheshire rain and led up a muddy path to a giant rock. No, David Cameron was not going to unveil his answer to a Miliband’s carved pledge stone, in fact he wasn’t going to say anything at all. You can imagine the spin doctor’s train out thought for the last day of full campaigning in the longest, most tiresome election in modern memory. Let’s got to the zoo! Let’s go to tigers enclosure! Tigers are brave, PMs need courage and so on. Or perhaps they wanted to win Piers Morgan’s vote; he has revealed today

Sebastian Payne

How did David Cameron spend his final day campaigning?

David Cameron’s 72-hour tour of Britain has finished up in the north west this afternoon. I have followed the Prime Minister to two campaign ‘events’ this afternoon — both purely for photo opportunities and neither involved meeting any ordinary voters. By this point in the campaign, knocking on doors is probably not the most effective use of time, so the best Cameron can hope for is to look enthused and feature in some colourful snaps. His first major event of the day was at a building site at Chester Zoo, in the heart of the Northern Powerhouse. A new tiger pen is being constructed,  an ideal opportunity for the Prime Minister to

Isabel Hardman

Last ditch attempts to win votes are pointless without months of legwork

All three party leaders are in the middle of their last-minute campaigning efforts, travelling across the country with little sleep. But what are they actually doing during these last few hours before polls open? David Cameron underlined that this isn’t just about meeting voters but about the photo opportunities by deciding to have a cosy chat with members of the farming community in Brecon… at 6 o’clock in the morning. The press were held back by this rather pointless pen (which later fell over) while the Prime Minister held his morning chat. To be fair, farmers do get up very early, though more to deal with their animals than for

James Forsyth

Tory backbenchers increasingly reconciled to another coalition

Speaking to various senior Conservative backbenchers in the past 24 hours, I’ve been struck by how much support there is for the formation of another coalition. There is a recognition that if the Tories have around 290 seats on Friday morning—which is at the optimistic end of the election projections, it is simply not realistic for them to try and run any kind of minority government. The view among those I have spoken to is that Cameron should be given a decent amount of flexibility to negotiate a deal with the Liberal Democrats as that is the most likely way for the Tories to be able to begin to put

Isabel Hardman

David Cameron defends 'con trick' line about Ed Miliband's plans

Is David Cameron talking up the SNP as a naughty campaign tactic to hurt Labour? This morning the Prime Minister denied that charge in his Today programme interview, saying: ‘I don’t accept that; I’m fighting the nationalists in Scotland. Indeed, I’ll be there later today standing up for Conservative candidates who want a strong United Kingdom and also want our economy to continue to grow and continue to create jobs and all the other things the United Kingdom can do together. ‘But if you want to know, what would I do as prime minister on Friday to make sure our United Kingdom stays together, I would say let’s complete the

Steerpike

Former Tory Brian May backs his local Labour candidate

When Brian May quizzed Russell Brand about his revolution at a screening earlier this month, the Queen guitarist mentioned that he had launched his own campaign, called Common Decency. The scheme supports ‘decent candidates’ irrespective of their party: ‘We’ve been asking for feedback on who is actually a decent candidate and who would listen, genuinely act for the interests of their constituents, whichever party they are from.’ May says the aim is to try and ‘unseat MPs in all these safe seats’ where ‘often the percentage of people who didn’t vote is greater than those who voted for one party’. Since May previously identified himself as a Tory it may come as some surprise

Sebastian Payne

Campaign-kick off: 24 hours to go

Finally, after six weeks of campaigning, endless opinion polls and the semi-TV debates, the final day of the 2015 general election campaign is upon us. David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg will be dashing all over the country to make their final plea to voters, while rumours are beginning to spill out about the conditions for any coalitions. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. Neck and neck Before the election campaign kicked off properly at the end of March, a poll of polls put Labour on 34 per cent and the Tories on 33 per

Steerpike

Bow Group chairman Ben Harris-Quinney removed from Conservatives Abroad website

After the Bow Group chairman Ben Harris-Quinney urged Tories to vote for Ukip in seats where the party can’t win, the Conservative think tank’s patrons issued a statement distancing themselves from the comments. Then when Harris-Quinney appeared on the Daily Politics yesterday to discuss the incident he was accused of being a ‘Walter Mitty’ character who had lied about his titles. Doubt was cast on his claim that he is the President of Conservatives Abroad Madrid, after the association told the BBC that he held no such title having failed to renew his membership. While Harris-Quinney denies the claims and continues to list himself as president of the organisation, the website has since removed him from their committee page: Further