Conservative party

Nick Clegg’s speech today was a preview of what the Liberal Democrat argument will be in 2015: coalitions work and we’re the ‘one nation’ party who will ensure that the government is fiscally credible but fair. This strategy is the leadership’s best hope for the next election. But it is reliant on coalition government being seen to work, something which isn’t going to be the case if the coalition partners continue to wash their dirty linen in public. In terms of the coalition, there were a few interesting lines in the speech. Clegg said that the Budget ‘must offer concrete help to hard-pressed, hard-working families: a big increase in the income tax threshold, further and faster towards £10,000.

Ever since Chris Huhne’s departure from government, Vince Cable has become a more and more aggressive coalition figure. His deliberately provocative interview with The Guardian in which this Keynesian, corporatist lambasts the idea that deregulation is key to growth as "ridiculous and bizarre" has drawn a heated Tory reaction. One source told me earlier that “BIS [Cable’s department] imposes ten stupid expensive things on business for every one they’re forced to drop. BIS is mired in useless committees that churn out red tape because Vince loves the EU and hasn’t a clue about small business.’ Just how irritated some Tory Cabinet Ministers are with Cable spilled out into the open last night on Any Questions.

Lib Dem spring conference is, perhaps, the most potent reminder of the cultural differences between the two coalition partners. In the Tory party pretty much the only thing that members get a real vote on is who the candidate in their constituency should be and who they want as party leader, even then that choice has been whittled down to two options by the MPs first. By contrast, the Lib Dems grassroots still get to determine the detail of party policy. The Health Bill’s problems really began at the last Lib Dem spring conference. It was a vote there that led to Nick Clegg seeking a whole host of changes which then led to the pause. As they say, the rest is history.   This Sunday’s vote on the Health Bill could be equally significant.

The debate on the 50p tax rate is moving fast. I was told by one Downing Street source today that ‘it is now more likely than not that it goes in the Budget.’ Now, obviously, there is a big caveat here. The Budget is not yet agreed: this is all subject to change. But I understand that the Chancellor is pushing hard to at least set out the roadmap to its abolition on the 21st March. I also hear that the Prime Minister is nervous about quite how determined Osborne is to do this. Cameron’s worry is that a Budget that tackles the 50p rate will be remembered solely for that — which would risk reinforcing the Tories’ reputation as the party of the rich.

With some right-wing voices — including Catholic Cardinal Keith O'Brien, Tory MP Peter Bone and the Daily Telegraph — speaking out against same-sex marriage, here’s a piece Douglas Murray wrote for The Spectator in October arguing that conservatives should instead be welcoming it: In America a new generation of Republicans is challenging the traditional consensus of their party on gay marriage. They — as well as some of the GOP old guard like Dick Cheney — are coming out in favour. In Britain the subject is also back on the agenda with the coalition government, at the insistence of the Prime Minister apparently, planning a ‘public consultation’ on the matter.

It is a sign of the influence that Steve Hilton has on the Cameron project that there have been more column inches devoted to his departure from Downing Street than there would be to most Cabinet resignations. But even after he heads to California in May, Hilton will still be part of the Cameron brains trust. He is already scheduled to work on the Prime Minister’s conference speech. Hilton has, I understand, been mulling the idea of taking a sabbatical since last summer. His decision to go ahead and take next year off seems to have been motivated by a variety of factors. But those closest to him stress that family reasons genuinely were key. This is not to say that Hilton is not frustrated.

David Cameron’s speech today is another reminder of how concerned the Tories are about losing their traditional advantage among female voters. The message that the Tories are cutting so that the country is passed on in a better state to the next generation is a direct response to the fact that the party’s polling has found mothers to be deeply concerned that their children will not have as good a quality of life as they have had. At the away day for Tory MPs last week, Andrew Cooper — the PM’s chief political strategist — said that talking about deficit reduction in these terms was crucial to winning over female swing voters.

Perhaps, the greatest testament to Steve Hilton’s influence in Downing Street is that everyone chuckles when you ask if anyone will replace him. His role in Number 10 as the senior adviser was one he had carved out for himself so that he could work on what he wanted to. It is deliberately designed not to fit on any ‘org chart’, the kind of document that the post-bureaucratic Hilton has little patience for. Hilton was for years caricatured as being not really right-wing. But, in reality, the opposite is true — he was, in some ways, the most right-wing man in Downing Street. Few matched him on subjects like 50p tax and labour market regulation. The Lib Dems were right when they called him ‘Thatcher in a t-shirt’.