Conservative party

Friday

James Forsyth

Where we stand this morning

The results so far have been good but not spectacular for Labour. The BBC’s national vote share projection has them on 39 percent, the Tories on 31, and the Lib Dems on 16. These numbers would deliver a comfortable Labour majority on both the old and new boundaries. Strikingly, UKIP is averaging 14 percent in the wards it is standing in. This is an impressive result given that UKIP traditionally doesn’t do that well in local elections where Europe is less of an issue. I suspect that the result is a combination of the fact that the party’s agenda has widened beyond Europe in recent years, that the coalition has

James Forsyth

The early signs from the local elections

Tonight, there seems to be a general acceptance that Boris has won London. The talk is of a four points plus victory. But it is worth, of course, remembering that no votes have been counted and there’s been no exit poll. But, sadly, it appears that there will be few other mayoralties created this evening. The opposition of the local political establishment appears to have triumphed in nearly all the cities holding referendums on whether or not to have a mayor. Their loss is Liverpool’s gain which will benefit considerably if it is the largest city outside London with a mayor. In terms of the council results, the very early

Thursday

Jonathan Jones

15 (other) cities to watch

Forget London. Odds are that Boris will win re-election while Labour becomes the largest party on the GLA. There are far more exciting battles going on around the country. Here’s the state of play in 15 cities outside the M25: 1. Birmingham. After strong gains in 2011, Labour are looking to depose the Conservative-Lib Dem coalition and regain the overall majority they held here until 2003. They need just five gains to do so — and, with 18 Tory seats and 13 Lib Dem ones up, that shouldn’t prove too difficult. Both of the coalition parties are simply in damage limitation mode. 2. Glasgow. Labour held a majority here for

James Forsyth

Leveson narrows Cameron’s fightback window

During the government’s recent troubles, Cameroons have talked about the ‘window’ for action that David Cameron will have if Boris does win the mayoralty. But that window got a lot smaller with the news that Andy Coulson and Rebekah Brooks are appearing at the Leveson Inquiry on Thursday and Friday next week. Their appearances means that, next week, the media won’t be dominated by discussion of the Queen’s speech but by one of Cameron’s biggest misjudgments: his decision to get so close to News International. If there are anywhere near as many text messages between Cameron and Brooks as Peter Oborne alleges then it will be, at best, horribly embarrassing

Jonathan Jones

Boris wins the popularity contest

So, after all that, it looks like today’s London Mayoral will be just a little bit of history repeating. YouGov’s final poll predicts that Boris will defeat Ken in the second round by 53 to 47 — exactly the same result we saw four years ago. The third place finisher will probably be the same too: the poll has Brian Paddick getting 7 per cent in the first round, ahead of Siobhan Benita and UKIP’s Lawrence Webb on 4 and Green Jenny Jones on 3. If Boris does overcome Labour’s partisan advantage in London, it won’t be mainly down to his achievements in office. In fact, voters are split 39-38

Jonathan Jones

What would count as a success for Labour?

In today’s English council elections, there’s no doubt that Labour will do better than in 2008 — the last time most of these seats were contested. Experts Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher predict that they’ll improve their ‘national equivalent vote share’ by 13 points compared to four years ago. But how many seats can they pick up of the back of that improvement? Rallings and Thrasher say a figure of 700 would justify a five-point lead in the polls. LSE’s Tony Travers expects Labour’s gains to be around 700-800, and says that: ‘If Labour only manage to put on a further 500 seats, that would be seen as seriously underperforming

Sebastian Payne

The View from 22 — 3 May 2012

Here, CoffeeHousers, is this week’s episode of The View from 22 podcast. In this episode, Leah McLaren returns to the Spectator a decade on from her infamous cover story attacking British men to explain how she’s now fallen in love with one (0:30). James Forsyth and Neil O’Brien from Policy Exchange examine the Tories’ lack of progress in the North (6:48) and how elected Mayors will help. Fraser joins in for a discussion of today’s local elections and why Labour has the most at stake (16:10). You can listen below with the embedded player or subscribe through iTunes. As ever, we’d love to hear what you think, good or bad. 

Wednesday

Andrew Gilligan

Why Labour supporters should shun Ken

The single funniest thing about the London mayoral election has been watching the Left trying to excuse tax avoidance. After I revealed that his idol, Ken Livingstone, had saved a fortune by channelling six-figure earnings through a personal company, the Guardian’s Dave Hill pleaded that Ken’s previous condemnations of tax-dodgers ‘had been aimed at extremely rich people — which he isn’t,’ so that’s all right, then. The Independent’s Owen Jones frothed that ‘the 1 per cent have an interest in demonising Ken Livingstone.’ But, Owen, Ken is the 1 per cent! What’s been just as notable, though, in the last three months is quite how few of Labour’s finest have

Jonathan Jones

Boris has won already, says bookie

We may still be 19 hours away from the polls opening — and more than 48 away from hearing the result — but bookmaker Paddy Power has already paid out £20,000 to punters who bet on Boris. It’s a publicity stunt by the company, but one that’s unlikely to backfire, with the pollsters agreeing that Boris is set for re-election — the only question seems to be how much he’ll win by. YouGov show him 4 points ahead of Ken in the second round, ComRes have him up by 8, Survation 10 and Populus 12. Paddy Power says that 94 per cent of the bets they took on the race

Tuesday

James Forsyth

The political effects of all this hacking talk

I doubt that many votes will be moved by the split report on hacking of the Culture, Media and Sport select committee. This is not a subject that sets the public’s pulse racing. But all this hacking talk does create political problems for David Cameron. First, it obscures his attempt to talk about other things that matter more to the electorate. This was rather summed up yesterday when the News at Ten led on him facing questions in parliament about Jeremy Hunt rather than the speech he had had to cancel about the economy. This is a particular problem given that the next six weeks at least are going to

Peter Hoskin

Gove gets covering fire

Good teaching matters; that’s something we don’t need to be taught. But how much does it matter? What are its measurable benefits? Today’s education select committee report collects some striking, if pre-existing, research into just those very questions, and it is worth reading for that reason. There is, for example, the IPPR’s suggestion that ‘having an “excellent” teacher compared with a “bad” one can mean an increase of more than one GCSE grade per pupil per subject.’ Or there’s the American study which found that the best teachers can ‘generate about $250,000 or more of additional earnings for their students over their lives in a single classroom of about 28

Monday

Fraser Nelson

Tricolour Britain

With unionists getting grubbed in Scotland and Labour being driven to near-extinction in vast swathes of the south, a new map of political Britain is emerging. In my latest Telegraph column, I called it ‘Tricolour Britain’ — the SNP at the top, Tories at the bottom and Labour stuck in the middle (with Wales). Policy Exchange has today released research which throws more light on this slow-mo political segregation. I thought CoffeeHousers may be interested in what strike me as the top points.   1. Scottish Tory Syndrome is when a once-dominant party loses and doesn’t recover. The party has failed to capture the imagination of voters, so when its apparatus

Jonathan Jones

Boris extends his lead

As we enter the final stretch of the campaign for London Mayor, YouGov have a new poll putting Boris four points ahead of Ken. It’s a touch better for the blue team than the 2 point lead YouGov found last week, but not as comfortable as the 8- and 10-point leads shown by ComRes and Survation respectively. Despite dropping a bit further behind Boris, Ken does not seem to be suffering from Labour supporters turning their backs on him. Indeed, he now gets 92 per cent of those Labour general election voters who express a preference between him and Boris — the highest level of party loyalty YouGov have found

James Forsyth

Cameron goes on the attack to defend Hunt

I don’t think I’ve ever seen David Cameron as angry as he was for that urgent question on Jeremy Hunt. He had clearly decided that attack was the best form of defence and went for his Labour critics in the most aggressive manner possible. But he did make one important concession in his opening answer when he said that if there is evidence of wrongdoing by the Culture Secretary, ‘I will not wait until the end of the Leveson inquiry to act’. In other words, Hunt’s appearance before Leveson will decide his fate. The dynamic in the Cameron-Miliband exchanges was genuinely personal. Cameron told the House that ‘we’ve learned something

Jonathan Jones

Boris drops the f-bomb (again)

More ‘colourful language’ from Boris Johnson today. Interviewed by the BBC about his reported attempts to secure sponsorship from News International while they were being investigated for phone hacking, he dismissed the claims as ‘f***ing b****cks’. Here, courtesy of Political Scrapbook, is the (censored) video:

Peter Robins

An anti-Labour leaflet in a pro-Labour font

The leaflet pictured above landed on my doorstep in Peckham last week. It’s the most interesting piece of election literature I’ve received this year — not because of its words, but because of its graphic design. If you read it closely, it appears to be an official communication from the Tories. The legally mandated imprint declares it to be ‘Promoted by Ian Sanderson on behalf of the Conservative Party, both of 30 Millbank, London SW1P 4DP’ — and that would accord with its strongly anti-Ken Livingstone text. If you don’t examine it closely, however, it appears to be an official communication from Labour. The highlighted details are red, and all

James Forsyth

Modernisation comes to the 1922 Committee

Christopher Chope is the only officer of the 1922 Committee who will be challenged by the 301 Group backed slate of broadly pro-leadership candidates. It is running two candidates for the two posts of secretary: Charlie Elphicke the popular, campaigning MP for Dover and Karen Bradley, the MP for Staffordshire Moorlands. Where the slate is running the most candidates is for the executive, full list below. But here great care appears to have been taken to come up with an inclusive list. For example, the group is supporting Adam Holloway who resigned as a PPS to vote for the EU referendum motion. It is also endorsing Penny Mordaunt, one of

Sunday

Sebastian Payne

Boris unleashes his final weapon: ‘the jaws of death’

Boris Johnson has granted a killer interview to the Sunday Telegraph, where he has unleashed a full-on strike against government. Such a move is calculated to draw a distinction between Boris and the flailing government. The most notable attack is saved for his arch-rival — the chancellor — and the upcoming battle(s) he would face upon re-election: ‘We’ve saved Crossrail from the jaws of death – aka George Osborne….I don’t mind having a row in Whitehall, I don’t mind how much plaster comes off the ceiling, providing it’s done in a robust and sensible way and London gets the money it needs.’ Boris does not go easy on the rest

David Blackburn

Cameron on the defensive

‘As things stand, I don’t believe Jeremy Hunt broke the ministerial code,’ said David Cameron to Andrew Marr earlier this morning. But the prime minister reiterated that he would act if new evidence came to light when Jeremy Hunt gives evidence to the Leveson inquiry. Cameron also indicated that he would not wait until Leveson reports in October to punish a breach of the ministerial code. And if Leveson does not clear up the issue, then the Hunt case would be referred to Sir Alex Allan. ‘I know my responsibilities,’ Cameron said time and again. In addition to putting Jeremy Hunt on probation, Cameron took the opportunity to defend his

Saturday

David Blackburn

A weekend to forget for the blue team

The Conservatives get a battering in tomorrow’s papers. Jeremy Hunt graces the front pages of the Observer and the Indy. The Sunday Express has an Angus Reid poll that finds 82 per cent of ordinary voters think the coalition is out of touch. The Mail on Sunday has given space for Ed Miliband to attack David Cameron. And Boris has told the Sunday Telegraph that now is the time for more tax cuts (he also refers to George Osborne as ‘the jaws of death’). Needless to say, Boris is bucking the national trend – still the favourite to win London, although it’s bound to be close. The paper also covers