Conservative party

John Major knows a thing or two about naughty Tory MPs and Europe. So David Cameron would do well to listen to his Chatham House speech today in which he advised the PM to give up on the 'irreconcilables who are prepared to bring own any government or any Prime Minister in support of their opposition to the European Union'. He made two particularly strong points: 1. The Prime Minister should start preparing for the negotiation now. Major doesn't want the UK to leave the European Union, and neither does Cameron. So the former Tory Prime Minister gave a detailed briefing on how Cameron can avoid this. A referendum would only prevent a gradual drift towards the exit if the renegotiation preceding it is successful, and to ensure success, the PM needs to get planning right away.

Adam Afriyie's team have been on the hunt for a press officer, I understand. Even though the backbencher has tried to play down claims that he's taking aim at the Tory leadership, a source in the communications community says that Afriyie's camp have been asking individuals to join them as a press spokesman and strategist. The Sunday Times reported at the weekend that Afriyie recently approached Portland Communications asking for advice, but it appears that his team have also been looking to take on someone to represent them and help with their plotting strategy. In this case, I hear the individual they approached turned their offer down.

David Cameron could barely contain himself when he addressed MPs on his victory in last week's EU budget talks. 'I didn't quite get a thank you!' he jeered at Ed Miliband once the Labour leader had finished his response. 'But I will give him a thank you for the non-thank you.' He also mocked Ed Balls for saying 'hear, hear' when the PM mentioned the need for spending constraint in the EU as so many of its member states struggled with austerity measures. Obligingly, Balls then cheered 'hear, hear' as often as he could, and continued to do so when his own leader started talking.

The Conservatives have just published their poster for the Eastleigh by-election. Like most campaigns, they're capitalising on the fact that the Tory candidate, Maria Hutchings, is local. But in their slogan they've also told voters that she's the one constituents can trust. This shows that, even though Nick Clegg argued in the Q&A after his speech yesterday that the contest shouldn't be about Chris Huhne, the party wants to make as much of the former Energy Secretary's exit as they possibly can in this bloody battle. UPDATE, 17.40pm: A rather sardonic Lib Dem source tells me: 'I have to say, campaigning against Chris Huhne when he's not a candidate is an intriguing idea.

Joe Murphy has a rather amusing story in the Standard this afternoon about Tory malcontents' latest manoeuvres against the Prime Minister. He reports several MPs saying Cameron will need to meet five key tests in order to secure his position as leader. How very democratic of them, measuring the Prime Minister's performance against a set of targets, rather than just saying they don't like him, or comparing him to a chambermaid. But when you read what those targets are, you see the problem that the Prime Minister has with his backbenches.

The Press Association's analysis of tonight's vote on the second reading of the same-sex marriage bill found 139 Conservative MPs voted against, along with two tellers. This was a free vote.

Downing Street is very keen to emphasise that Tory MPs who vote against the second reading of the gay marriage bill tomorrow are not 'rebels'. This is a free vote, and MPs can vote with their conscience. But this ignores the fact that there will be a rebellion tomorrow: not on the second reading, but on the programme motion. I understand that at least one ministerial aide is likely to rebel against the three-line whip on this motion, which sets out how the Bill will proceed through the Commons. Other MPs who oppose the bill are also expected to defy the whip, although not in the same numbers as will vote against second reading, and without any greater effect as Labour is also whipping its MPs to support the motion.

David Cameron arrived back in the UK this morning to newspapers full of talk of Conservative splits and plots. The moment of unity that followed his Europe speech has well and truly passed. There’s no doubt that the gay marriage is causing a ruckus in Conservative Associations up and down the country and that Conservative MPs will go through different lobbies on Tuesday night. To some extent, this division in the Conservative ranks was priced in. What was not is the continuing and increasingly frenzied leadership speculation. The Mail and The Independent this morning detail plans by allies of the Home Secretary Theresa May to position her for the leadership in the event of a vacancy.

David Cameron clearly rated Adam Afriyie's 'stalking horse' plot as a sufficiently ridiculous threat to make a joke out of it at Prime Minister's Questions this week. After their premature outing in the papers last weekend, the plotters might sensibly have gone to ground for some time while Afriyie fended off lunch invitations from journalists trying to get the measure of him. But according to the Mail and the Guardian, they're still at it, now with George Osborne in their crosshairs. They're clearly a determined bunch, plotting to deliver an ultimatum to the Prime Minister in May to replace his Chancellor if the Budget fails to revive the economy. That's quite some ask.

What a lot of fun William Hague had this afternoon in the Commons as he opened a debate tabled by the Prime Minister on Europe. 'I have not yet exhausted the list of the Coalition's achievements,' he told an MP trying to intervene. His speech was rather like a slow motion version of the PM's address last week, but with words like 'subsidiarity' added in for good measure, and a longer tour of how wonderfully robust the Tory party is on Europe. Though some Tory MPs made their own thoughts on the referendum clear (James Clappison called for legislation in this parliament for a referendum in the next, and Bill Cash said he'd rather the plebiscite take place before the European elections), the focus was on poking fun at the Labour party: a rare moment of Coalition unity.